Circana: Beer Category Dollar Sales Nearly Flat to Start 2025; 2 of Top 25 Vendors Build Growth Momentum

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Beer category dollar sales were roughly flat (-0.3%) to start the year at off-premise retailers tracked by market research firm Circana.

Sales reached $2.854 billion at multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C) in the first four weeks of 2025, through January 26. The -0.3% year-over-year (YoY) decline for the period marked a slight improvement over the category’s dollar sales decline (-0.5%) in the latest 52-week period (L52W).

Volume, measured in case sales, improved by the same 0.2% margin in both the L4W (-2.4%) and L52W (-2.6%).

It is important to note that off-premise scan data cannot paint a full picture of beer category performance, as it does not contain all off-premise retailers or any on-premise or at-the-brewery sales. Recent analysis from Bank of America shows that consumers shifted their spending toward the on-premise in January.

Of the top 25 beer category vendors, only two accelerated dollar sales growth between the L52W and L4W periods:

  • No. 4 Mark Anthony Brands (White Claw, Mike’s Hard Lemonade, Cayman Jack), +1.6% in dollars and -1.5% in volume in the L52W, and +3.2% in dollars and +0.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 11 Sierra Nevada, +4.4% in dollars and +1.9% in volume in the L52W, and +4.7% in dollars and +3.6% in volume in the L4W.

Two international producers with mixed portfolios went from loss to growth:

  • No. 7 Diageo (Guinness, Smirnoff Ice), -2.1% in dollars and -4.5% in volume in the L52W, +6.2% in dollars and +4.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 22 Sapporo-Stone, -2.2% in dollars and -2.7% in volume in the L52W, and +0.7% in dollars and +1.1% in volume in the L4W.

No. 5 Boston Beer (Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head) went from loss to flat in dollars: -2.6% in dollars and -4.5% in volume in the L52W, and flat in dollars and -1.6% in volume in the L4W.

Of the nine vendors with dollar sales growth year-to-date (YTD) through January 26, four recorded decelerating dollar growth between the L52W and the L4W:

  • No. 3 Constellation Brands (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Victoria), +5.6% in dollars and +4.2% in volume in the L52W, and +3.3% in dollars and +1.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 8 Kirin-Lion (New Belgium, Bell’s, Kirin), +8.2% in dollars and +5.7% in volume in the L52W, and +0.7% in dollars and -1.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • No 12. Geloso (ClubTails), +9.8% in dollars and +11.7% in volume in the L52W, and +7.2% in dollars and +8.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 18 Athletic, +59.8% in dollars and +63.3% in volume in the L52W, and +37.6% in dollars and +38.5% in volume in the L4W.

Of the 16 vendors in the red to start the year, seven posted decelerating dollar losses:

  • No. 1 Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B), -3.2% in dollars and -4.5% in volume in the L52W, and -1.3% in dollars and -2.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 13 FIFCO USA (Labatt, Genesee, Seagram’s Escapes), -8.1% in dollars and -9.1% in volume in the L52W, and -5.7% in dollars and -7.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 15 Tilray (SweetWater, ShockTop, Montauk, 10 Barrel, other craft brands), -14.8% in dollars and -14.6% in volume in the L52W, and -14% in dollars and -11.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 21 Mahou USA (Founders, Avery), -1.2% in dollars and -1.9% in volume in the L52W, and -1.1% in dollars and -1.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 23 Firestone Walker, -1.6% in dollars and -1.9% in volume in the L52W, and -0.1% in dollars and -4.4% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 24 Artisanal Brewing Ventures (Victory, Sixpoint, Southern Tier, Bold Rock), -6% in dollars and -6.5% in volume in the L52W, and -4% in dollars and -5% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 25 Monster-owned CANarchy (Cigar City, Oskar Blues, Deep Ellum, Wasatch, Squatters, Perrin), -6.6% in dollars and -8.6% in volume in the L52W, and -5.6% in dollars and -7.9% in volume in the L4W.

Six of the top 25 beer category vendors recorded accelerating losses between the L52W and L4W periods:

  • No. 2 Molson Coors, -2.6% in dollars and -4.4% in volume in the L52W, and -2.7% in dollars and -4.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 6 Heineken, -3.5% in dollars and -4.8% in volume in the L52W, and -4.5% in dollars and -5.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 9 Pabst, -5.7% in dollars and -5.5% in volume in the L52W, and -6.5% in dollars and -7.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 10 Yuengling, -8.1% in dollars and -9.1% in volume in the L52W, and -9.5% in dollars and -10.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 17 Heineken-owned Lagunitas, -6.6% in dollars and -10.3% in volume in the L52W, and -8% in dollars and -11.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 19 Gambrinus (Shiner, Trumer), -4.6% in dollars and -5.1% in volume in the L52W, and -6.5% in dollars and -6.6% in volume in the L4W.

Three vendors went from dollar growth to loss between the periods:

  • No. 14 Phusion Projects (Four Loko), +0.1% in dollars and -1.8% in volume in the L52W, and -8% in dollars and -9.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 16 Sazerac (Fireball, BuzzBallz), +1% in dollars and -1.8% in volume in the L52W, and -5.2% in dollars and -7.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 20 Monster (the Beast, Nasty Beast), +10.4% in dollars and +10.8% in volume in the L52W, and -9% in dollars and -7.5% in volume in the L4W.

All three of the growth-to-loss vendors skew heavily toward the convenience channel, where beer category dollar sales (-0.6% YoY) and volume (-3.1% YoY) losses outpaced MULO+C (-0.3% in dollars and -2.4% in volume) in the L4W. Geloso, Phusion, Sazerac and Monster all rank among the top 25 beer category vendors in c-stores and MULO+C, but not grocery. They also over-index in c-stores relative to their MULO+C rank:

  • Geloso, No. 9 in c-stores, No. 12 in MULO+C;
  • Phusion, No. 11 in c-stores, No. 14 in MULO+C;
  • Sazerac, No. 14 in c-stores, No. 16 in MULO+C;
  • Monster, No. 17 in c-stores, No. 20 in MULO+C.

Three additional vendors also popped in c-stores, but not MULO+C:

  • No. 21 AriZona Beverages
  • No. 24 BeatBox
  • No. 25 Happy Dad Hard Seltzer.

Happy Dad also ranked No. 25 in the grocery channel.

Three vendors over-indexed in grocery stores relative to their MULO+C rank:

  • Athletic, No. 12 in grocery, No. 18 in MULO+C;
  • Sapporo-Stone, No. 16 in grocery, No. 22 in MULO+C;
  • And Mahou USA, No. 17 in grocery, No. 21 in MULO+C.

Deschutes Brewery (No. 21 in grocery), Prestige Beverage Group (No. 23 in grocery) and 2 Towns Ciderhouse (No. 24 in grocery) all ranked in the channel, but not in MULO+C.

To start 2025, the average price per case increased +$0.63 in MULO+C, driven by +$0.79 in c-stores and partially offset by +$0.60 in grocery. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for beer at home increased +1.8% YoY in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Sazerac implemented the category’s largest price increase at +$3.43 per case in MULO+C, followed by Firestone Walker and Lagunitas (both +$1.78), CANarchy (+$1.15), Kirin-Lion (+$1.03) and Mark Anthony (+$1.02).

Tilray’s average price per case declined -$1.02, followed by Monster (-$0.64), Geloso (-$0.47), Athletic (-$0.24) and Sapporo-Stone (-$0.17).