“Flavored alcohol” across categories has become a lonely bright spot for the bev-alc industry, which is finding itself particularly pessimistic in 2025, according to the latest monthly report from Bump Williams of Bump Williams Consulting (BWC).
Now past the midyear mark, “it looks like a long shot to post anything positive for the industry in 2026,” Williams wrote. However, what has been “on fire” is “flavored alcohol.”
“Flavored alcohol” – referred to as progressive adult beverages (PAB) by market research firm NIQ – includes flavored malt beverages (FMBs), hard seltzer, hard cider and spirits- and wine-based ready-to-drink (RTD) and ready-to-serve (RTS) cocktails, according to BWC’s definition.
The category has recorded $7.3 billion in sales year-to-date (YTD), marking a 2.8% increase YTD, Williams shared. Flavored alcohol now accounts for 13% share of total bev-alc dollar sales this year, a 0.7 percent point increase year-over-year (YoY).
However, growth hasn’t been universal across all flavored alcohol. When you extract out “flavored beer” – a.k.a. FMBs, hard seltzer and hard cider – those three segments have seen a 4% drop in dollar sales YTD, outpacing declines for “traditional beer” (-3%).
FMBs (37%) and hard seltzer (24%) make up more than half of total flavored beer dollar sales, despite each posting a decline in share YoY (FMBs -2.1 percentage points, hard seltzer -2.5 percentage points). That majority share highlights how much heavy lifting spirits- and wine-based offerings are doing to bring the total group into the black.
“Rising spirits/wine RTD sales are the clear winner in the flavored alcohol category and leading sales growth in total alcohol through a strong connection with today’s consumer, a pipeline of innovation, and [its] premiumization push within flavored alcohol,” Williams wrote. “[That’s] leading to falling malt beverage sales as consumers switch to spirits and wine RTD products, resulting in an alarming downturn in sales for FMB, which had been a consistent growth segment for beer and flavored alcohol.”
FMBs ended 2024 with dollar sales up 5.5% and volume, measured in case sales, increasing 3.8% YTD through December 28, according to data shared by 3 Tier Beverages. The segment was one of three to consistently post growth throughout the year, along with imports and non-alcoholic beer.
In the latest NIQ report (data ending July 12), FMB dollar sales are down 2.5% and volume down 4.5% YTD, the third largest dollar sales declines after hard seltzer (-6.9%) and domestic premium beer (-6.1%).
NIQ has PAB off-premise dollar sales at $4.9 billion, declining -0.7% YTD through July 12, according to data shared by 3 Tier Beverages. Within that, spirits-based (dollar sales +13.2%, volume +14.1%) and wine-based RTDs (dollar sales +6.9%, volume +4.5%) are the only segments within PAB to record growth.
Total RTD dollar sales have reached $1.9 billion YTD through July 5 (+23%), according to the BWC report.
“The continued growth of spirits RTD in NIQ data is particularly notable given that these products are available in only 40–50% of stores compared to their malt-based counterparts due to regulatory limitations on distribution,” Williams added.
“And it is important to note that spirits RTD has achieved this success despite its leading brand, [Gallo’s] High Noon, now starting to experience a year-over-year decline in sales (speaks to the power of the depth and ongoing relevance within other leaders).”
YTD through July 5, High Noon dollar sales have declined 3.5%, according to NIQ data shared by BWC. Declines appear to be accelerating, according to newer figures from 3 Tier Beverages. In the last 26 weeks (ending July 12), High Noon dollar sales are down 5.3%, with a similar decline in volume (-5.5% YoY).
Fifteen bev-alc vendors account for about 85% of flavored alcohol sales YTD, according to Williams, led by Mark Anthony Brands, which has 24.6% share of flavored alcohol dollar sales (-0.9 percentage points YTD). No. 2 Boston Beer Company also has double-digit share (17.3% share, -1 percentage point YTD), with No. 3 Gallo (7% share, +0.2 percentage points) and the remaining top 15 vendors holding single-digit share.
Among the top 15, No. 4 Sazerac (6.9% share, +1.8 points) and No. 11 Surfside-maker Stateside (1.5% share, +1 point) have posted the largest share gains YTD.
Fifteen flavored alcohol brand families make up 66.5% share of the category’s dollar sales YTD, led by Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Hard Seltzer ($1.2 billion, +1% YTD). The next three largest brand families are all in the red:
- Boston Beer’s Twisted Tea (-3.3%, to $756.8 million);
- High Noon (-3.5%, to $413.7 million);
- And Mark Anthony’s Mike’s Hard Lemonade (-8.8%, to $410 million).
Note, listed dollar sales and rankings are based exclusively on offerings that are included in BWC’s definition of flavored alcohol, and do not include extensions such as non-alcoholic (NA) or bottled spirits.
Other top 15 flavored alcohol brands families in decline YTD include No. 7 Boston Beer’s Truly Hard Seltzer (-18%, to $312.7 million) and No. 15 FIFCO-owned Seagram’s Escapes (-17.2%, to $90.6 million).
Meanwhile, the rest of the top 15 – primarily spirits- and wine-based offerings – are in the black, with significant gains recorded by:
- No. 13 Stateside’s Surfside (+205.4%, to $109.8 million);
- No. 6 Sazerac-owned BuzzBallz (+72.1%, to $378.1 million);
- No. 9 BeatBox (+42.1%, to $190.2 million);
- No. 10 Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Cutwater (+23.8%, to $162.7 million);
- And No. 12 Geloso Beverage’s Clubtails (+13.1%, to $110.9 million).
Other top brand families up YTD include:
- No. 5 Diageo’s Smirnoff (+2.9%, to $384.4 million);
- No. 8 Mark Anthony Brands’ Cayman Jack (+7%, to $193.2 million);
- No. 11 Phusion Project’s Four Loko (+1.1%, to $118.8 million);
- And No. 14 Boston Beer’s Angry Orchard Hard Cider (+1.2%, to $106.6 million).
“While the majority of beverage-alcohol remains a ‘traditional’ business full of legacy leaders and classic styles, a lot of those same brands are now being challenged for space (shelf and floor), visibility, awareness and share of mind by this diverse group of flavor pioneers and innovators,” Williams wrote.
“While most of the preceding text shined a spotlight on the current challenges of malt-based flavor, it is worth pointing out that not all brands are beholden to that fate and that this current flavor wave has actually led to a bit of a renaissance moment for some long-standing FMB brands that have capitalized on renewed consumer interest in select styles and/or package formats (ex. [A-B’s] Rita’s, Smirnoff),” he added.
However, August will be a “do or die month” for the bev-alc industry, particularly beer, Williams noted, reminding industry members that in the approaching October, November and December (O/N/D) period, “spirits always wins.”
BWC president Dave Williams and VP of business development & portfolio strategy Brian “BK” Krueger recently spoke with Brewbound about the shifts in FMBs for an episode of the Brewbound Podcast. Look for the conversation later this week on Brewbound.com.