Jefferies Distributor Survey Part 2: Outlook for A-B, Constellation, Molson Coors, Tilray and More

Distributors have become increasingly more pessimistic about beer. But how do they feel about the biggest suppliers and their outlooks for 2025?

Investment banking firm Jefferies asked this question in its latest beer distributor survey, which represented portfolios from Tilray (60% of respondents), Constellation (55%), Anheuser-Busch InBev [A-B] (50%), Molson Coors (50%), Boston Beer (40%) and more.

Here are the highlights:

A-B Expectations Dampened

Half of Jefferies’ survey respondents carry A-B products. Those distributors now believe the beer giant’s depletions will decline 1.5% in 2025, falling from flat expectations shared in the fall survey.

Many fall survey respondents had expected A-B to grow this year, with 5% projecting 3% depletion gains, 25% projecting 2% and 10% projecting 1%. Now, the majority of respondents (35%) expect a 3% decline, followed by -2% (24%) and flat (-12%). Six percent of respondents said depletions could fall 4% or more versus 2024.

At the core of A-B’s trends is a loss of shelf space that occurred during 2024 spring resets. About one-third of respondents (29%) were neutral on whether A-B can regain the space it lost in this latest reset period, with the rest of the pack falling equally on either side: 24% unlikely, 12% very unlikely; 24% likely, 12% very likely.

The brand most at risk for shelf space decline is Bud Light, with 81% of respondents reporting lost space in the latest period and none reporting shelf gains for the brand, followed by Budweiser (47% lost space, 53% maintained) and Estrella Jalisco (21% lost, 64% maintained, 14% gained).

Gaining shelf space are Michelob Ultra and its NA counterpart, Michelob Ultra Zero, with 94% of respondents expecting shelf space gains for the two offerings in spring resets. Gains are also expected for Busch Light (75%) and A-B’s spirits-based, ready-to-drink (RTD) brands Cutwater (57%) and Nütrl (57%).

Molson Coors Shelf Space Feeling the Pressure

Molson Coors is losing distribution points (TDP), and in turn losing share of total beer TDP, according to surveyed Molson Coors distributors.

In the last 52 weeks (ending May 3), Molson Coors’ TDP has declined 2% year-over-year (YoY), outpacing declines from total beer in the same period (-0.9%), according to NIQ data shared by Jefferies. Declines accelerated in the last 13 weeks (L13W), with Molson Coors’ TDP down 4.5% compared to total beer’s 1.4% declines. And in the L4W, Molson Coors TDP fell 3.9% YoY, while total beer recorded 0.1% growth.

However, distributors are feeling positive about Molson Coors retaining the remainder of shelf space it gained in 2024, according to survey results, which improved versus fall sentiments. More than two-thirds of respondents (67%) said the company is “likely” to retain its shelf space in 2025 resets, up from 47% in the fall. Just over one-tenth (13%) are neutral, down from 24% in the fall, while 13% said it is “unlikely” (previously 18%) and 2% said “very unlikely” (previously 12%).

The company’s ability to gain more shelf space is more uncertain, with 50% of respondents neutral on Molson Coors’ ability to gain space in upcoming spring resets. The next leading response was “unlikely,” followed by “likely” (8%).

Of those that said Molson Coors is “unlikely” or “likely” to retain shelf space, the leading brand credited for losses was Vizzy, with 100% saying the brand will lose space, followed by Coors Light (67%), Blue Moon (67%), Topo Chico (67%), Miller Lite (33%) and Simply Spiked (33%).

Vizzy also leads Molson Coors portfolio in YoY TDP declines in NIQ-tracked channels: -45% L52W, -53% L13W, -50% L4W. However, contrary to distributor sentiment, Simply Spiked recorded the second largest TDP losses in recent data, with decline accelerating: L52W -7%, L13W -35%, L4W -41%.

Notable TDP losses were also recorded by Topo Chico (L52W -30%, L13W -26%, L4W -21%), with most other brands about flat. Coors Banquet bucked trends by gaining shelf space – a priority for the company, according to its latest earnings report – with TDP growth accelerating (L52W +10%, L13W +11%, L4W +13%).

Constellation Feeling Biggest Impact of Macroeconomic Environment

Distributor expectations for Constellation were hit the hardest in Q1, thanks to macroeconomic impacts on imports (tariffs) and pressures on Hispanic consumers. Survey respondents initially projected 7% volume growth for the company in 2025, but have since tampered expectations to an average of 1% growth.

Jefferies itself is also projecting 1% volume growth for Constellation and its portfolio of Mexican import brands. If that plays out, it will be a significant shift from Constellation’s recent trends, with the company recording between 7% and 9% volume increases every year between 2020 and 2024.

About three-quarters of respondents expect Constellation’s full-year depletions to be positive YoY (41% between +1% and +3%; 35% between +4% and +6%). However, 12% believe depletions will be flat, and the remaining 12% expect them to decline between 1% and 3%.

Distributors credited inflationary pressures as the driving cause of Constellation’s slowdowns, with the factor chosen by 100% of survey respondents. Other predominant factors included:

Macro pressures on core Hispanic consumers (50%);
Slowdown from unsustainable growth levels (50%);
“Marijuana adoption” (50%);
Competition (25%);
Unfavorable weather (25%);
And “shift of spend to gambling” (25%).

Boston Beer Avoiding Cannabilization Between Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea

Distributor expectations for Boston Beer’s portfolio were mixed. Projections for the company’s craft beer business (Samuel Adams, Dogfish Head) worsened, with the majority of respondents (62%) expecting trends to be “worse” in 2025 versus 2024, and 6% expecting them to be “much worse.” “Little change” was the leading sentiment in the fall survey (67%), falling to 31% in the most recent report.

The two craft brands are also projected to lose shelf space in spring resets, according to 69% of respondents. The remaining 31% said the brands will maintain their space.

Truly Hard Seltzer is expected to take the biggest hit in resets, with 92% of distributors expecting the hard seltzer to lose shelf space. Meanwhile, Hard MTN Dew perception is mixed, with 67% projecting lost space, 17% maintained and 17% gained. And for Angry Orchard, 46% expected loss while 54% think things will stay the same.

Sun Cruiser, Boston Beer’s vodka-based hard tea offering, has the most optimism around it, with 77% of respondents projecting gained shelf space for the brand, while 15% were neutral and 8% see lost space. Its malt-based fellow hard tea brand Twisted Tea was nearly evenly split between maintain (54%) and gain (46%).

Boston Beer leadership has claimed numerous times that Sun Cruiser is not significantly cannibalizing Twisted Tea sales, despite recent slowdowns in the latter’s growth trends. Distributors seem to agree, as 46% said the cannibalization is present, but minimal, and 31% said there is no cannibalization, and Sun Cruiser instead attracts incremental consumers. The remaining 23% were “unsure.”

Data also appears to back this up, according to Numerator sales data for the 13-week period ending April 27, shared by Jefferies. A-B’s Michelob Ultra was the No. 1 source of Sun Cruiser’s dollar sales gains, losing more than double the sales of No. 2 contributor Tito’s Vodka.

Other brands feeling the heat more than Twisted Tea include (in order): A-B’s Bud Light; Molson Coors’ Coors Light; Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Hard Seltzer; Molson Coors’ Miller Lite; Surfside Vodka + Tea; Truly; Gallo’s High Noon Sun Sips; Constellation Brands’ Corona; A-B’s Nütrl; Yuengling; Diageo’s Smirnoff; A-B’s Busch Light; Constellation’s Modelo; and Diageo’s Captain Morgan.

Tilray Losses Slowing

More than half of Tilray distributor respondents (58%) said Tilray’s portfolio has lost space during spring resets, while 37% said space has been maintained and 5% said gained. However, Jefferies noted that “declines aren’t as bad as they seem,” as the company is still rationalizing its portfolio.

That rationalization – part of Project 420 – is helping Tilray’s velocity trends. In the 52-week period ending April 26, Tilray’s craft beer brands recorded a 3.4% YoY spike in sales per distribution point, according to NIQ data shared by Jefferies. In the same period, total craft dollars per TDP was about flat (+0.5%).

Tilray’s craft beer brands are also showing improvement in scans, according to NIQ data shared by Jefferies. Leading the charge is Shock Top, which had dollar sales down 6% YoY in the 52-week period ending May 3, but shifted positive in the L13W (+1%) and L4W (+28%). Montauk Brewing was also positive in the L4W (+1%), but was negative in the L13W (-8%) and L52W (-7%).

Several other brands recorded a steady slowdown in YoY dollar sales declines: