In a continuation of last month’s trends, 15 of the top 25 beer category vendors have recorded dollar sales and volume declines year-to-date (YTD) through November 3, according to market research firm Circana.
The overall beer category is approaching flat dollar sales (-0.5%) YTD with volume, measured in case sales, at a steeper decline of -2.6%. However, those metrics have reversed direction in the four-week period (L4W) ending November 3, with dollars up +2.1% year-over-year (YoY) and volume roughly flat (-0.1%).
Four companies’ positive trends have accelerated from the first 10 months of the year through the L4W in multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C):
- No. 2 Constellation Brands, +6.4% in dollars and +5.3% in volume YTD, +8.3% in dollars and +6.4% in the L4W;
- No. 4 Mark Anthony Brands, +1.4% in dollars and -1.8% in volume YTD, +4.5% in dollars and +2% in volume in the L4W;
- No. 7 Diageo Beer Company, +2.2% in dollars and +0.6% in volume YTD, +4.6% in dollars and +3% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 12 Sierra Nevada, +3.9% in dollars and +0.9% in volume YTD, +5.8% in dollars and +3.9% in volume in the L4W.
No. 17 Sazerac, a spirits giant with some flavored malt beverage (FMB) and malt-based ready-to-drink (RTD) offerings under the Fireball and BuzzBallz brands, posted a slight acceleration in both metrics, but its volume remained negative. Sazerac’s dollar sales improved from +1.2% YTD to +1.8% in the L4W, while its volume improved from -1.9% YTD to -1.2% in the L4W.
No. 13 Geloso Beverage Group, maker of ClubTails FMB, recorded a slight deceleration between the periods: +10.7% in dollars and +12.4% in volume YTD, +9.8% in dollars and +11.4% in volume in the L4W.
Of the 10 top 25 vendors with increased dollar sales YTD, two have seen their dollar sales gains decelerate in the L4W:
- No. 8 Kirin-Lion (New Belgium and Bell’s Brewery), +10.7% in dollars and +8.2% in volume YTD, +3.6% in dollars and -0.5% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 24 Athletic Brewing Company, +68.6% in dollars and +73.5% in volume YTD, +50.1% in dollars and +55.6% in volume in the L4W.
Two of the 10 top 25 vendors with dollars sales gains YTD have reversed course in the L4W:
- No. 15 Phusion Project (Four Loko), +3.3% in dollars and +1.3% in volume YTD, -3.4% in dollars and -6.4% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 18 Monster Brewing (including the Beast and Nasty Beast but excluding the former CANarchy brands), +26.3% in dollars and +26.1% in volume YTD, -6.6% in dollars and -4.6% in volume in the L4W.
Trends for four of the 15 vendors in decline YTD have ascended to dollar sales growth in the L4W, including No. 1. Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B), which reversed dollar sales trends from -4.4% YTD to +1.4% in the L4W. A-B’s volume swung from -5.6% YTD to nearly flat at -0.1% in the L4W. In 2024, the company is continuing to cycle catastrophic losses in dollars, volume and share driven by a conservative-led boycott of its Bud Light flagship after the brand collaborated with Dylan Mulvaney, a trans woman who is an online content creator. In its Q3 earnings call last month, A-B said it was seeing a return to similar sales patterns from before the boycott.
Other vendors that have turned negative dollar sales YTD into growth in the L4W include:
- No. 16 Heineken-owned Lagunitas, -6.3% in dollars and -6.8% in volume YTD, +0.9% in dollars and +1.4% in volume in the L4W;
- No. 20 Mahou USA (Founders, Avery), -1.4% in dollars and -2.3% in volume YTD, +3.1% in dollars and +2.5% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 21 Artisanal Brewing Ventures (Victory, Sixpoint, Southern Tier, Bold Rock), -6.3% in dollars and -6.8% in volume YTD, +1.3% in dollars and -0.2% in volume in the L4W.
Duvel USA-owned No. 22 Firestone Walker’s dollar trends have shifted to flat in the L4W, up from -3% in the first 10 months of the year. Volume trends are improving, but remain negative – -5.6% YTD to -3.8% in the L4W.
Four other top 25 vendors have recorded decelerating declines:
- No. 5 Boston Beer (Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer, Samuel Adams, Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head), -2.3% in dollars and -4.3% in volume YTD, -0.1% in dollars and -2.1% in volume in the L4W;
- No. 6 Heineken USA (excluding Lagunitas), -3.2% in dollars and -4.5% in volume YTD, -1.3% in dollars and -2.8% in volume in the L4W;
- No. 22 FIFCO USA (Labatt, Genesee, Seagram’s Escapes), -7.8% in dollars and -8.7% in volume YTD, -3.9% in dollars and -6% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 25 Monster-owned CANarchy Craft Brewery Collective (Cigar City, Oskar Blues, Deep Ellum, Squatters, Wasatch and Perrin, which Circana still tracks under its former name), -7.2% in dollars and -9.1% in volume YTD, -4.2% in dollars and -6.8% in volume in the L4W.
Declines have remained relatively stable for four of the top 25 vendors:
- No. 3 Molson Coors, -1.7% in dollars and -3.4% in volume YTD, -1.7% in dollars and -3.7% in volume in the L4W;
- No. 9 Pabst, -4.8% in dollars and -4.4% in volume YTD, -4.3% in dollars and -4.8% in volume in the L4W;
- No. 14 Tilray Brands, -14.3% in dollars and -13.7% in volume YTD, -13.3% in dollars and -12.9% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 23 Sapporo USA, -1.9% in dollars and -2.5% in volume YTD, -2.8% in dollars and -0.2% in volume in the L4W.
Two of the top 25 vendors’ declines accelerated between the first 10 months of the year and the L4W:
- No. 10 Yuengling, -5.1% in dollars and -6.2% in volume YTD, -9% in dollars and -9.8% in volume in the L4W;
- And No. 19 Gambrinus (Shiner, Trumer), -4.2% in dollars and -5.3% in volume YTD, -8.3% in dollars and -10% in volume in the L4W.
Several vendors appeared in the top 25 in the grocery and convenience channels without also ranking among the top 25 vendors in MULO+C. In grocery stores, they include No. 22 Deschutes Brewery, No. 23 Happy Dad and No. 24 Prestige Beverage Group. Happy Dad was also No 24 vendor in c-stores, but was not among the top 25 in MULO+C.
Athletic ranked No. 15 in grocery stores, but was not among the top 25 vendors in c-stores. Similarly, Geloso, Phusion Projects and Sazerac ranked in the convenience channel at No. 10, No. 11 and No. 15, respectively, but did not rank in grocery stores.
In the convenience channel, AriZona Beverages ranked No. 19, but did not appear among the top 25 in MULO+C or grocery.
YTD through November 3, the beer category has recorded a -0.5% decline in dollars and -2.1% in volume in the grocery channel. Those numbers have turned around in the L4W, to +1.6% in dollars and -0.1% in volume.
The convenience channel has made an even larger swing. Dollar sales there are -1% YTD and +2% in the L4W, while volume has moved from -3.5% YTD to -0.7% in the L4W.