Nice weather and ideal timing helped boost beer’s performance over Fourth of July weekend, producing “surprisingly strong trends,” according to distributors surveyed by Goldman Sachs.
While scan data showed a slightly down Independence Day compared to 2024, beer volume sales were “quite strong” and “exceeded expectations,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in their latest Bev Bytes report, which included survey results.
Respondents represented about 40 beer distributors serving 125,000 retail outlets, or approximately 25% of total U.S. outlets that sell bev-alc.
Sixty percent of respondents said overall July 4 beer trends were stronger than the holiday weekend in 2024, with 19% indicating “much stronger” trends, and 14% “somewhat stronger.” Forty percent of respondents said beer volumes specifically were up during the holiday (9% “up significantly,” 31% “up slightly”).
The results stand in stark contrast to Memorial Day, when 25% of distributors said beer’s performance was up compared to 2024.
What was working in beer’s favor was ideal weather conditions and calendar timing, according to respondents, with July 4 landing on a Friday – the first time that has occurred in more than a decade (2014) due to the leap year schedule. July 4, 2024 fell on a Thursday.
“One distributor noted that the Fourth of July holiday weekend was the best they’ve seen in the last five years – which was quite welcomed in light of a weaker than expected Memorial Day holiday weekend,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
Another distributor said their total sales increased 17% year-over-year (YoY) during the holiday weekend, noting significant growth from beer (+16%), wine (+16%) and non-alcoholic (NA) beverages (+28%).
Still, 30% of survey respondents said beer trends were “weaker” than 2024, with 3% noting they were “much weaker.” Eleven percent said trends were about the same YoY.
Among those that noted a dip in sales, the leading causes were “continued consumer uncertainty” and low “traffic trends,” as well as ready-to-drink (RTD) bev-alc “weighing on beer consumption.”
A-B Leads Growth and Promotional Activity Among Major Beer Vendors
More than half of surveyed distributors (52%) said Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B) improved volume sales compared to July 4, 2024, the largest percentage among major beer vendors. Twenty-two percent of respondents said trends were up “significantly” while 30% said they were up “slightly” – contrasting with the total of 35% of respondents who indicated positive A-B trends over Memorial Day weekend.
A-B’s Michelob Ultra was a “clear standout” over Independence Day, with 93% of distributors recording YoY volume growth for the brand (56% significant, 37% slight), in line with Memorial Day trends (94%).
As reported earlier this month, Michelob Ultra passed sibling brand Bud Light in dollar sales over July 4 weekend, claiming the No. 2 spot among beer brands in Circana-tracked off-premise channels. Michelob Ultra dollar sales (+3.1% YoY) and volume (+3.9%) remained consistent in the week-ending July 6 compared to the week leading up to the holiday (dollar sales +3.1%, volume +3.3%, week-ending June 29.)
Meanwhile, Bud Light remained in the red over the Fourth (dollar sales -8.1%, volume -9%), according to Circana data. About two-thirds (74%) of surveyed distributors said the brand’s volume was down over July 4 (33% down significantly, 41% down slightly), compared to 87% over Memorial Day. However, Bud Light regained its No. 2 position in the week following July 4 (data ending July 13).
A-B’s volume gains could be due to increased promotional activity, with nearly two-thirds (65%) of distributors observing holiday promotions by the company, the highest percentage among top beer vendors, followed by Molson Coors (24%) and Constellation Brands (6%).
Just over half of total beer volume (53%) was promoted over the Fourth, in line with 2024 trends and slightly ahead of Memorial Day (46%). Some distributors noted “a lot of rebate activity.” However, others said they “expected deeper promotional activity than there was,” and said “consumers seem to know what they want before entering the stores and are not shopping displays as much.”
After A-B, Constellation had the next largest percentage of distributors who indicated volume growth (33%) for the vendor during Independence Day (29% slight, 7% significant), compared to 27% on Memorial Day.
Pacifico led growth among the company’s Mexican beer portfolio, with 65% of respondents observing volume growth (29% significant, 36% slight), compared to 27% over Memorial Day. Pacifico was the 14th largest beer brand in Circana-tracked channels over the holiday period, with dollar sales (+11.5%) and volume (+8.8%) both up YoY (data ending July 6).
Pacifico’s sibling brand Modelo was the No. 1 beer brand over the weekend, despite accelerated declines over the holiday (dollar sales -6%, volume -7.9%) compared to the previous week (dollar sales -3.3%, volume -6%).
Just over half of surveyed distributors (52%) said Modelo’s volumes were up compared to July 4, 2024 (29% slightly, 7% significantly), compared to 27% over Memorial Day. Nearly one-quarter (23%) said volumes were down (3% significantly).
Corona had slightly more negative trends, with 52% of distributors indicating volume declines (13% significant, 39% slight) and 22% indicating growth (7% significant). Sentiment was improved compared to Memorial Day, when 65% of respondents recorded volume loss for the brand.
“One distributor highlighted that import brands are still feeling the pressure from the macro environment, while American style brands are leading the way in execution and sell through,” analysts wrote. That macro environment includes tariffs, inflation, immigration enforcement and other pressures that are disproportionately impacting Hispanic consumers.
Boston Beer ranked third in volume gains, with 18% of distributors recording “slight” growth. However, sentiment was down slightly compared to Memorial Day, when 23% of distributors recorded volume gains for the company. Just over half of respondents (55%) said volume was down YoY (32% slightly, 23% significantly).
Boston Beer’s spirits-based hard tea Sun Cruiser was a “standout” over July 4, with 72% of respondents indicating YoY volume gains (44% significant, 28% slight). However, one distributor said consumer spending on Sun Cruiser is “unsustainable” as “the category is now saturated with big suppliers and a lot of investment behind these brands.”
Boston Beer’s other hard tea brand, Twisted Tea, seems to be already feeling the pressure amongst hard tea, other flavored malt beverages (FMBs) and ready-to-drink (RTD) offerings. More than one-third of distributors (35%) said the brand’s volumes were down over the Fourth (27% slightly, 8% significantly), compared to 21% over Memorial Day weekend.
Twisted Tea’s YoY declines in scans accelerated over the holiday weekend (dollar sales -10.5%, volume -11.9%) compared to the week prior (dollar sales -7%, volume -8.9%), ranking as the ninth largest brand family over the holiday, according to Circana data. By comparison, in the two-week period ending July 7, 2024, Twisted Tea was up double-digits in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (dollar sales +13.3%, volume +11.6%).
Sibling brand Truly also continues to record volume losses, with more than three-quarters (76%) of distributors observing declines for the hard seltzer brand, with more than half indicating volume declines were “significant,” and 20% “slight.” The results were slightly improved compared to Goldman Sachs’ Memorial Day survey, when 87% of respondents said Truly’s volumes were down YoY.
Truly was the 13th largest beer brand family over the holiday week, and also recorded accelerated declines (dollar sales -18.5% YoY, volume -19.7%) compared to the week ending June 29 (dollar sales -13.9%, volume -15.5%).
Molson Coors was slightly behind Boston Beer in distributor sentiment, with 16% of respondents noting volume growth for the company (12% slight, 4% significant), compared to 20% over Memorial Day. Sixty-eight percent said volumes were down (60% slightly, 12% significantly), compared to 72% over Memorial Day.
The declines were in spite of volume growth recorded by Coors Banquet, observed by 73% of survey respondents, compared to 86% over Memorial Day, which failed to counter YoY declines from Coors Light (recorded by 74% of respondents) and Miller Lite (recorded by 78% of respondents).
The overall Coors brand family was the fifth largest beer brand by dollar sales in Circana-tracked channels over the Fourth of July, with dollar sales (-1.6%) and volume (-3.1%) both in the red. YoY declines for Miller Lite, the sixth largest brand family, were even steeper (dollar sales -6.7%, volume -7%).
Other notable Independence Day performances by vendors according to distributors included:
- Heineken, 14% said volumes were up, 46% said volumes were down (compared to 66% who said volumes were down over Memorial Day);
- Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Hard Seltzer, 31% volumes up, 41% volumes down (35% said volumes were up over Memorial Day);
- And Gallo’s High Noon Sun Sips, 40% volumes up (in line with Memorial Day), 40% volumes down.