Circana: Craft Posts 4-Week Dollar Sales Improvement to Start 2025

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Craft’s rolling four-week losses improved to start 2025, according to the most recent report from market research firm Circana.

The segment’s off-premise dollar sales declined -3.1% and volume, measured in case sales, declined -4.6% in the four-week period ending January 26 (L4W) at multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C). That marked an improvement over the prior four-week period (through December 29, 2024), when craft dollars declined -5.1% and volume declined -6.5%.

In light of remarks last week from National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) chief economist and VP of analytics Lester Jones that off-premise scan data is not the alpha and omega of beer category information, it bears repeating that scans offer an incomplete glimpse into off-premise sales and do not capture all retailers or the on-premise and at-the-brewery sales.

Only three of the top 30 craft brands recorded accelerating growth between the L52W and L4W:

  • No. 2 Kirin-owned New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, +4.7% in dollars and +2.6% in volume in the L52W, +5.9% in dollars and +4.2% in the L4W;
  • No. 18 Anheuser-Busch (A-B) InBev-owned Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, +11% in dollars and +9.7% in volume in the L52W, +22.4% in dollars and +22.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 27 Rhinegeist Truth IPA, +5.9% in dollars and +2.9% in volume in the L52W, +11.6% in dollars and +8.3% in volume in the L4W.

Another three brands shifted from loss to growth between the periods:

  • No. 6 A-B’s Elysian Space Dust IPA, -3.7% in dollars and -4.1% in volume in the L52W, and +8.8% in dollars and +9.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 21 Molson Coors-owned Blue Moon Light, -3.2% in dollars and -4.7% in volume in the L52W, and +8.4% in dollars and +5.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 23 Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s Shandy, -9.9% in dollars and -12.9% in volume in the L52W, and +28.9% in dollars and +25.7% in volume in the L4W.

Both Blue Moon Light and Leinenkugel’s Shandy can partially credit their reversals to changes in commercialization. Blue Moon Light was rebranded and renamed from Blue Moon Light Sky Citrus Wheat, and Leinenkugel’s Shandy transitioned from a seasonal offering to year-round availability.

Although 19 of the top 30 craft brands at Circana-tracked MULO+C outlets recorded dollar sales declines year-over-year (YoY), 11 of them posted decelerating losses between the L52W and L4W periods:

  • No. 1 Blue Moon Belgian White, -3.8% in dollars and -5.9% in volume in the L52W, and -1.3% in dollars and -3.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 5 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, -3.9% in dollars and -7.1% in volume in the L52W, and -3.7% in dollars and -5.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 7 Gambrinus-owned Shiner Bock, -6.2% in dollars and -6.8% in volume in the L52W, and -5.1% in dollars and -5.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 8 Boston Beer-owned Samuel Adams seasonal, -9.1% in dollars and -11.4% in volume in the L52W, and -2.1% in dollars and -3.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 9 Heineken-owned Lagunitas IPA, -8% in dollars and -11.8% in volume in the L52W and -7.2% in dollars and -11.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 16 Samuel Adams Boston Lager, -10.1% in dollars and -12.2% in volume in the L52W, and -4.6% in dollars and -5.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 19 Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, -9.3% in dollars and -12.5% in volume in the L52W, and -5.6% in dollars and -10.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 22 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA, -21.8% in dollars and -23% in volume in the L52W, and -19.6% in dollars and -20.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 24 New Belgium Fat Tire, -28.3% in dollars and -29.3% in volume in the L52W, and -24.4% in dollars and -26% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 26 Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing Imperial IPA, -11.2% in dollars and -12.6% in volume in the L52W, and -2.9% in dollars and -3.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 30 Sapporo-Stone’s Delicious IPA, -2.9% in dollars and -7% in volume in the L52W, and -1.4% in dollars and -3.1% in volume in the L4W.

Three brands have taken sizable price increases in the L4W, which may have thrown dollar and volume velocity out of sync.

No. 28 Seattle-based Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA increased +$3.15 per case in the L4W, heading off stepper dollar sales declines. A case of Bodhizafa cost $54.20 on average, the most expensive case price among the top 30 craft brands. The Pac Northwest-exclusive brand has gone from mid- to high-single-digit growth in the L52W (+7.7% in dollars and +5.6% in volume) to declines in the L4W (-3.5% in dollars and -9.1% in volume).

Bodhizafa’s price increase was the highest among top 30 craft, followed by Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, which increased case prices +$2.44 (see L4W sales data above). Sibling brand Lagunitas IPA enacted the fourth-highest case price increase at +$1.95 (see L4W sales data above), just behind No. 10 A-B’s Kona Big Wave, which increased cases +$1.96 on average in the L4W.

Kona Big Wave is one of four brands with sales gains that decelerated between the L52W and L4W. The brand’s double-digit increases in dollars (+13.6%) and volume (+13%) have slowed and reversed to +2% in dollars and -3.4% in volume in the L4W.

Also recording slowing growth trends were No. 3 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force Hazy Imperial IPA (+14.6% in dollars and +12.7% in volume in the L52W, +12.6% in dollars and +10.2% in the L4W), No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA (+7.4% in dollars and +6.2% in volume in the L52W, and +4.6% in dollars and +4.1% in volume in the L4W), and No. 15 A-B-owned Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH Double IPA (+27.3% in dollars and +23.6% in volume in the L52W, and +23.6% in dollars and +21.5% in volume in the L4W).

Seven already-in-decline brands slid further into the red:

  • No. 12 Duvel USA-owned Firestone Walker 805 Blonde, -4.6% in dollars and -7.4% in volume in the L52W, and -4.8% and -8.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 13 New Belgium-owned Bell’s Two Hearted IPA, -3.5% in dollars and -4.8% in volume in the L52W, and -4% in dollars and -5.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 14 Mahou USA-owned Founders All Day IPA, -4.4% in dollars and -4.7% in volume in the L52W, and -6.2% in dollars and -6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 17 Monster-owned Cigar City Jai Alai IPA, -2% in dollars and -2.8% in volume in the L52W, and -4.4% in dollars and -5.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 20 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Variety Pack, -18.6% in dollars and -19.8% in volume in the L52W, and -27.2% in dollars and -28.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 25 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, -13.9% in dollars and -16.1% in volume in the L52W, and -20.6% in dollars and -21.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 29 Goose Island IPA, -13.1% in dollars and -13.1% in volume in the L52W, and -17.4% in dollars and -17.2% in volume in the L4W.

No. 11 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force IPA, last year’s best-selling new beer brand, has begun to cycle its launch. The brand’s dollar sales have reached $51.9 million in the L52W, a +4,550.2% increase over the small amount sold in the previous year. In the L4W, Tropic Force has posted triple-digit growth in dollars (+292.3%) and volume (+293.3%).

To kick off its sophomore year, Tropic Force’s average price per case has declined -$0.13 in the L4W, one of only four brands to do so. Elysian Space Dust IPA’s price per case dropped -$0.30 on average, the largest decline in top 30 craft in the L4W. At $50.53 per case, Space Dust commanded the second most expensive case price in craft, surpassed only by Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA at $54.20.

Within the grocery channel, four brands broke through despite not landing on the top 30 MULO+C list:

  • No. 24 Sierra Nevada Seasonal, +9.9% in dollars and +5.7% in volume in the L52W, and -8.1% in dollars and -11.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 26 Sierra Nevada Hazy IPA variety pack, a new product with $9.735 million in sales at grocery in the L52W;
  • No. 27 New Holland Dragon’s Milk Ale, -0.1% in dollars and +6.8% in volume in the L52W, and +21.4% in dollars and +62.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 30 Stone IPA, -5.8% in dollars and -9.2% in volume in the L52W, and -0.4% in dollars and +0.9% in volume in the L4W.

In c-stores, another four brands broke though, two of them belonging to Tilray Brands:

  • No. 26 A-B’s Goose Island Big Juicy Beer Hug Imperial IPA, a new product with $6.097 million in c-store sales in the L52W;
  • No. 27 Fiddlehead IPA, +9.3% in dollars and +9.5% in volume in the L52W, and +7.5% in dollars and +8.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 28 Tilray-owned 10 Barrel Pub Lager, -9.5% in dollars and -9.9% in volume in the L52W, and -23.7% in dollars and -24.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 29 Tilray-owned Redook Big Ballard Imperial IPA, +2.6% in dollars and -0.9% in volume in the L5W, and +4.3% in dollars and -0.5% in volume in the L4W.