Craft beer’s dollar sales declines continued to accelerate through late May, according to market research firm Circana.
Craft dollar sales in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (multi-outlet plus convenience) declined -5.5% in the four-week period ending May 19, accelerating from -3% in the previous period (ending April 21). Declines were also larger than the latest 12-week (dollar sales -3.5%) and year-to-date (-2.9%) trends (through May 19).
However, volume trends – measured by case sales – improved, declining -1.7% in the L4W, versus -4.7% in the previous four-week period, -2.4% in the L4W and -2.7% YTD. The opposing performances between dollar sales and volume is at least somewhat due to a segment-wide decline in the average price per case by -$1.65 in the L4W. The decline shifted the change in average price per case YTD from +$0.67 in the week ending April 21, to now -$0.08.
Twenty-three of the top 30 craft brands recorded dollar sales declines in the L4W. Eleven of the 23 brands recorded double-digit declines, including five brands from Kirin-owned New Belgium: No. 15 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -19.3%, volume -20.4%); No. 19 Voodoo Ranger Hoppy variety pack (dollar sales -19.7% volume -20.7%); No. 23 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -19.5%, volume -20.3%); No. 24 Fat Tire (dollar sales -29.9%, volume -30.4%) and No. 27 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -17.5%, volume -18.9%).
The other 6 brands from the top 30 to record double-digit declines include:
- No. 13 Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s Summer Shandy (dollar sales -14.1%, volume -17%);
- No. 16 Boston Beer Company’s Samuel Adams Boston Lager (dollar sales -19.9%, volume -25.2%);
- No. 21 Heineken-owned Lagunitas Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ (dollar sales -10.2%, volume -13.5%);
- No. 25 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales -14.8%, volume -17.6%);
- No. 28 Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Goose Island IPA (dollar sales -11.5%, volume -11.2%);
- No. 29 Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing (dollar sales -14.4%, volume -16%).
While New Belgium’s brands may be struggling with declines from high year-over-year (YoY) comps and potential cannibalization, the company still has eight brands in the top 30, including two of the three largest craft brands by dollar sales – Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollars sales +4% in L4W, volume +1.8%) and Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +17.1%, volume +15.6%) – as well as new brand Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force, and the aforementioned five brands.
New Belgium’s total in the top 30 goes up to 10 when including brands from sibling company Bell’s Brewery, including No. 14 Bell’s Two Hearted Ale (dollar sales -1.7%, volume -3.2%) and No. 30 Bell’s seasonal (dollar sales -8.8%, volume -10.8%). Bell’s seasonal offering was previously bounced from the top 30, but reentered the list, despite declines, outpacing Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA in dollar sales in the L4W.
Beyond Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA and Juice Force, four other craft brands within the top 30 recorded YoY growth in the four-week period, including three A-B craft brands: No. 8 A-B-owned Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +19.8%, volume +21.8%); No. 20 A-B-owned Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug (dollar sales +22.6%, volume +17%); and No. 26 A-B-owned Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +5.6%, volume +3.8%). No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +6.4%, volume +4.9%) was also in the black.
Molson Coors’ Blue Moon Belgian White remains the No. 1 craft brand, with nearly double the dollar sales YTD of No. 2 Voodoo Ranger imperial IPA. Blue Moon’s own declines accelerated in the L4W, with dollar sales declining -3.8% versus -1.7% YTD and -2.1% in the L12W.
C-Stores: Dollar Sales -1%, Volume -2.7% YTD
Craft dollar sales (-5%) and volume (-6.6%) also declined in the convenience channel in the L4W, well above trends for the L12W (dollar sales -2%, volume -3.8%) and YTD (dollar sales -1%, volume -2.7%).
Twenty-one of the top 30 craft brands recorded dollar sales declines in the L4W, with 16 recording double-digit declines. The largest declines were from No. 17 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (-22.9%), No. 30 Goose Island IPA (-22.8%) and No. 20 Voodoo Ranger IPA (-22.4%).
Three brands recorded double-digit growth in the channel in the L4W: No. 2 Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +14.4%, volume +11.2%); No. 8 Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug (dollar sales +17.9%, volume +12.1%); and No. 29 Fiddlehead IPA (dollar sales +25%, volume +24.3%).
Despite declines, Leinenkugel’s Summer Shandy moved up in the top 30 list YTD from No. 25 in the previous report, to No. 18, as scan data approaches the summer selling season. Summer Shandy dollar sales have declined -13.7% YTD, to $2.94 million.
No. 12 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale also moved down the list (dollar sales -11.4% YTD), surpassed by Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +20.6%, to $10.1 million) and Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force (no comps, $9.67 million in dollar sales YTD).
Grocery: Dollar Sales -3.3%, Volume -2.9% YTD
The grocery channel recorded even larger declines in the L4W: dollar sales -5.2%, volume -3.1%. In the L12W dollar sales declined -3.7% and volume -2.5%, while YTD craft dollar sales declined -3.3% and volume -2.9%.
Twenty of the top 30 recorded declines in the L4W, with eight recording double-digit declines:
- No. 14 Samuel Adams Boston Lager (dollar sales -19.8%, volume -27.1%);
- No. 18 New Belgium Fat Tire (dollar sales -30%, volume -31.1%);
- No. 20 Sierra Nevada Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ (dollar sales -11%, volume -13.8%);
- No. 21 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra (dollar sales -14.5%, volume -18.6%);
- No. 22 Samuel Adams variety pack (dollar sales -23.3%, volume -25.9%);
- No. 24 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -16%, volume -17);
- No. 25 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -34%, volume -35.1%);
- No. 28 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -12.6%, volume -15.8%).
Of the nine brands to record YoY growth in the L4W, five recorded double-digit growth:
- No. 5 Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +15.7%, volume +16.6%);
- No. 10 Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +18.4%, volume +16.5%);
- No. 19 Monster Brewing-owned Cigar City Jai Alai (dollar sales +11.6%, volume +13.1%);
- No. 26 Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +17.2%, volume +14.7%);
- No. 30 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (dollar sales+10%, volume +12.8%).
Sapporo-owned Stone Delicious IPA fell out of the top 30 in grocery YTD. Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force made the top 30 in the channel for the first time, ranking No. 29 YTD. Tropic Force had the 24th highest dollar sales in the L4W, at nearly $1.15 million.
Other movement in the grocery channel YTD includes:
- Leinenkugel’s Summer Shandy moved up from No. 15 to No. 8, despite dollar sales declining -6.7% YTD, to $12.59 million;
- No. 12 Duvel Moortgat-owned Firestone Walker 805 (dollar sales -2% YTD, to $10.79 million) passed No. 13 Bell’s Two Hearted (dollar sales +4%, to $10.72 million), as Two Hearted’s growth decelerated slightly;
- No. 17 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon Light (dollar sales -6.9% YTD, to $7.5 million) passed No. 18 New Belgium Fat Tire (-32.5%, to $7.08 million) since the last report;
- And No. 23 Bell’s seasonal (dollar sales +4.7% YTD, to $4.92 million) passed No. 24 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -17.1%, to $4.28 million) and Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -14.4%, to $4.21 million). Fruit Force recorded a significant acceleration in declines versus the previous report, which had dollar sales declining -8.5% YTD, placing the brand above both Bell’s seasonal and Juicy Haze.