Craft Declines Accelerate Through Late April; A Look at Price Swings in Circana Scans

Craft beer scans declined -3% in the four-week period ending April 21 in multi-outlet and convenience stores, tracked by market research firm Circana. Volume, measured in case sales, tumbled -4.7% in the period, the firm added.

Year-to-date (YTD) off-premise sales declined -1.9%, to nearly $1.3 billion (-$24.79 million) in Circana-tracked channels. Volume declined -3.4% through the first four months of 2024.

On a rolling 52-week basis, craft dollar sales declined -0.7%, while volume declined -3.4%.

The overall beer category is outpacing craft YTD, with dollars -0.3% and volume -2.2%. Those trends were a little rougher over the last four weeks, with dollars declining -0.8% and volume declining -2.9%.

Craft sales in the convenience channel were in the red (-1.5%, to $124.8 million), while volume dipped -3.3% during the four-week period. The channel had been a bright spot for craft, as dollar sales are in the green YTD (+0.4%, to nearly $466.9 million) and volume, while in the red (-1.2%), has trended better than total off-premise sales.

Grocery sales for craft continued to drag, with dollars declining -3.4%, to $189.2 million, and volume declining -5% during the four-week period. Those trends outpaced the YTD figures, with dollars (-2.5%, to more than $703.4 million) and volume (-3.7%) both declining less sharply than the last month.

Just nine of the top 30 craft brands posted positive dollar sales and volume trends in the four-week period in Circana-tracked multi-outlet and convenience stores. They include:

No. 2 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA +5.5% dollars, +3.8% volume;
No. 3 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force Hazy Imperial IPA +29.3% dollars, +29.5% volume;
No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA +6.7% dollars, +5% volume;
No. 6 Shiner Bock +0.7% dollars, +1.7% volume;
No. 9 Anheuser-Busch InBev-owned Kona Big Wave golden ale +18.3% dollars, +16.5% volume;
No. 12 New Belgium-owned Bell’s Brewery Two Hearted Ale +1.4% dollars, +0.6% volume;
No. 19 A-B-owned Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH double IPA +31.1% dollars, +26.3% volume;
No. 27 A-B-owned Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA +4.6% dollars, +2.9% volume;
No. 30 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA +8% dollars, +8.2% volume.

The only new brand to crack the top 30 list was New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force tropical IPA at No. 20, with more than $3.6 million in sales in the four-week period, and more than $9.8 million YTD. Tropic Force is already the 12th best-selling beer YTD in convenience with more than $7 million in sales. In the last four weeks, it was the seventh best-selling beer in convenience.

New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force hit the skids over the last four-week period ending April 21, with dollar sales -8.6% and volume -9.2%, as the brand has cycled a strong year 1 launch. The brand is still up double-digits YTD in both dollars (+28%) and volume (+27.1%). However, the deceleration was noticeable in the last 12-week period, with dollars (+6.2%) and volume (+5.5%) up single digits.

In c-stores, New Belgium continues to hold the top two brands, with Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (+7.6% dollars, +5.9% volume YTD) and Juice Force (+39.8% dollars, +35.8% volume YTD).

Molson Coors’ Blue Moon Belgian White, the top-selling overall craft beer in scans, ranked third in convenience, with both dollar sales and volume declines accelerating over the last four weeks, -15.2% and -16.6%, respectively. YTD, Blue Moon’s trends are still down double-digits (-10.9% dollars, -11.8% volume).

Notable craft brands popping up in the convenience top 30 included:

No. 23 Rhinegeist Truth IPA +15.2% dollars, +11.6% volume in the L4W;
No. 28 Tilray-owned 10 Barrel Pub Lager +18.7% dollars, +19.4% volume in L4W;
No. 29 Fiddlehead IPA +7.9% dollars, +10% volume in L4W.

Blue Moon has a stranglehold on the top-spot in grocery, with a more than $16.7 million lead on New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, at more than $33.9 million in sales YTD. Voodoo Ranger is in second, with more than $17.1 million in sales.

Non-alcoholic (NA) beer sales are up +27.4%, while volume is up +22% YTD in multi-outlet and convenience stores. Dollar sales of the segment increased +23.2% in dollars and +17.1 in volume in the four-week period ending April 21.

NA beer maker Athletic Brewing, which Circana does not count within its craft beer data set, remained the 25th largest beer category vendor YTD. Athletic’s off-premise sales increased +81.1% and volume +86.5% through the first four months of the year.

Those numbers ticked down only slightly during the last four weeks, with dollar sales increasing +71.8% and volume increasing +73.9%.

The majority of Athletic’s off-premise sales were recorded in the grocery channel ($20.6 million of its $25.4 million in sales). Athletic is the 15th largest beer category vendor in the grocery channel.

Athletic boasts three top 100 beer category brands in grocery:

No. 66 Run Wild IPA +57.1% dollars YTD, to nearly $7.6 million, +62% volume (+50.3% dollars, +52.4% volume in L4W);
No. 95 Free Wave Hazy IPA +96.7% dollars, to nearly $5.4 million, +100.6% volume (+79.8% dollars, +80.5% volume L4W);
No. 96 Upside Dawn Golden +65% dollars, to $5.1 million, +69.7% volume (+66% dollars, +68.2% volume L4W).

Run Wild would be a top 30 craft brand, at No. 26, if Circana counted it as part of its craft set.

Other Notes:

Hard seltzer maker Happy Dad cracked the top vendors list in grocery at No. 25, with nearly $6 million in sales YTD (+69.2% in dollars, +68.15 in volume).
In convenience, AriZona Beverages is the 19th largest beer category vendor, with more than $12.2 million in sales. Notably, AriZona reduced price the most of any top 25 beer category vendor in the convenience channel, reducing price -$3.42, to an average case price of $42.62.

Sazerac, Lagunitas, Sierra Nevada Take Biggest Price Swings

Sazerac has taken the most price YTD of any beer category vendor, increasing its average case price by +$4.93, to $159.27, across Circana-tracked multi-outlet and convenience stores.

The next closest are Heineken-owned Lagunitas, which increased its average case price by +$1.78, to $43.94, and Sierra Nevada, whose average case price increased +$1.42, to $43.18.

On the flip side, Athletic Brewing has taken its average case price down -$1.27, to an average case price of $43.01, the largest dollar decline among the top vendors

Over the four-week period ending April 21, in multi-outlet and convenience stores, the highest price increases among craft beer brands are as follows: