Circana: Craft Declines Continue to Decelerate; Molson Coors Craft Brands Reverse Trends

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Could craft off-premise scan data be beginning to turn the corner as the calendar heads toward the holidays?

In the four-week period ending November 3 (L4W), craft dollar sales declined -1.9% year-over-year (YoY) and volume (case sales) declined -3.4% in multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C), according to the most recent report from market research firm Circana.

Both metrics have recorded steady improvements in the past two Circana reports. In the four-week period ending October 6, dollar sales declined -3.6% and volume declined -5.4%, which were marked improvements over the four-week periods ending September 9 (dollars -5%, volume -6.6%) and August 11 (dollars -6.5%, volume -7.8%).

Craft still trails the overall beer category, which is up +2.1% in dollar sales and down -0.1% in volume in the L4W. Non-alcoholic (NA) beer continues to lead in growth (+29.2% in dollars, +24.9% in volume), followed by domestic super premiums (+7.4% in dollars, +7.1% in volume), flavored malt beverages (+6.6% in dollars, +5% in volume), imports (+5.8% in dollars, +3.9% in volume), domestic sub premiums (+0.9% in dollars, -1.3% in volume) and cider (+0.2% in dollars, -1.4% in volume).

Both domestic premiums (-2.2% in dollars, -3.9% in volume) and hard seltzer (-3.4% in dollars and -6.5% in volume) lag behind craft’s declines in the L4W, according to Circana.

Through the first 10 months of the year, seven of the top 30 craft brands recorded YoY gains in both dollar sales and volume. In the four-week period ending November 3, those numbers changed to eight brands with dollar sales increases and just four with volume increases.

Within the top 30 craft brands, only one recorded accelerated growth from YTD to the L4W: Anheuser-Busch (A-B) InBev-owned Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH IPA. YTD, its dollar sales have increased +29.8% and volume increased +25.6%, which accelerated to +30.5% and +26.9% in the L4W, respectively. Tropical Beer Hug is No. 20 in MULO+C, but No. 7 in convenience stores. It did not rank among the top 30 in grocery stores.

Three brands, all owned by Molson Coors, have reversed YTD declines in dollars and volume into dollar sales growth in the L4W:

  • Blue Moon, -4.1% in dollars and -6.1% in dollars YTD, +0.1% in dollars and -1.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • Blue Moon Light, -6.1% in dollars and -7.6% in volume YTD, +9.5% in dollars and +9.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • Leinenkugel’s Shandy, -12.5% in dollars and -15.3% in volume YTD, +3.6% in dollars and -0.1% in volume in the L4W.

In the past year, Molson Coors has refreshed Blue Moon’s branding, rechristened Blue Moon Light Sky Citrus Wheat as the simpler Blue Moon Light and transformed Leinenkugel’s Shandy from a seasonal offering to a year-round beer.

Two brands have recorded a reversal of fortune in the opposite direction. Kirin-owned New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force posted double-digit gains in dollars (+20.9%) and volume (+19.2%) in the first 10 months of the year, but those gains have dipped to -1.2% in dollars and -5% in volume in the L4W through November 3. Juice Force is the No. 3 craft brand in MULO+C, No. 2 in c-stores, and No. 7 in grocery stores.

Seattle-based Georgetown Brewing Bodhizafa IPA also posted strong growth YTD (+10.9% in dollars, +10.3% in volume) through November 3, but those metrics have dropped to -4.1% in dollars and -7.7% in volume in the L4W. The brand is No. 30 in MULO+C and grocery and No. 25 in c-stores within a fairly limited Pacific Northwest footprint.

Three brands have maintained relatively consistent losses from YTD to the L4W:

  • Duvel USA-owned Firestone Walker 805, -4.4% in dollars and -6.9% in volume YTD, -3.7% in dollars and -6.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • Boston Beer-owned Samuel Adams Boston Lager, -10.6% in dollars and -13.1% in volume YTD, -10.2% in dollars and -12.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • And New Belgium Fat Tire, -29% in dollars and -29.9% in volume YTD, -28.8% in dollars and -32.8% in volume in the L4W.

Six brands’ declines have decelerated from YTD to the L4W:

  • Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, -4.1% in dollars and -7.9% in volume YTD, -3.5% in dollars and -5.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • A-B’s Elysian Space Dust IPA, -6.3% in dollars and -7% in volume YTD, -1.4% in dollars and -2.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • Heineken-owned Lagunitas IPA, -8.1% in dollars and -11.8% in volume YTD, -2.7% in dollars and -3.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • Monster-owned Cigar City Jai Alai IPA, -1.8% in dollars and -2.6% in volume YTD, -0.9% in dollars and -2.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin;, -10.3% in dollars and -12.8% in volume YTD, -4.3% in dollars and flat in volume in the L4W;
  • Samuel Adams variety pack, -21.6% in dollars and -24% in volume YTD, -15.4% in dollars and -19.9% in volume in the L4W.

Declines for 10 brands have accelerated:

  • Samuel Adams seasonal, -9.5% in dollars and -11.2% in volume YTD, -17.5% in dollars and -19% in volume in the L4W;
  • Gambrinus-owned Shiner Bock, -6.6% in dollars and -7.5% in volume YTD, -8% in dollars and -10.4% in volume in the L4W;
  • Mahou USA-owned Founders All Day IPA, -1.9% in dollars and -3.3% in volume YTD, -4.7% in dollars and -5.9% in volume in the L4W;
  • New Belgium Voodoo Ranger variety pack, -15.8% in dollars and -17% in volume YTD, -25.7% in dollars and -27.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA, -21.7% in dollars and -29.9% in volume YTD, -26.9% in dollars and -32.9% in volume in the L4W;
  • Kirin-owned Bell’s Two Hearted IPA, -1.9% in dollars and -3.3% in volume YTD, -4.7% in dollars and -5.9% in volume in the L4W;
  • Bell’s seasonal, -7.8% in dollars and -9.4% in volume YTD, -25% in dollars and -24.4% in volume in the L4W;
  • Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, -12.3% in dollars and -14.8% in volume YTD, -14.6% in dollars and -15.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force, -11.4% in dollars and -12.8% in volume YTD, -28.6% in dollars and -30.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • New Belgium Voodoo Ranger IPA, -14.4% in dollars and -15.4% in volume YTD, -22% in dollars and -24% in volume in the L4W.

Several brands appeared in the top 30 in the grocery and convenience channels without also ranking among the top 30 brands in MULO+C. In grocery stores, they include No. 24 Sierra Nevada seasonal, No. 27 Samuel Adams seasonal overlay and No. 29 Goose Island IPA.

In convenience stores, No. 21 Rhingeist Truth IPA, No. 23 Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing Imperial IPA, No. 28 Tilray-owned 10 Barrel Pub Lager and No. 29 Fiddlehead IPA were all top 30 c-store brands, but not top 30 MULO+C brands.

In addition to Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug, brands that appear in the top 30 MULO+C and top 30 convenience but not top 30 grocery include:

  • New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force Hazy Imperial IPA, No. 16 in MULO+C and No. 10 in c-stores;
  • And New Belgium Voodoo Ranger IPA, No. 27 in MULO+C and No. 22 in c-stores.

Brands that appear in the top 30 MULO+C and top 30 grocery but not top 30 convenience include:

  • Blue Moon Light, No. 19 in MULO+C and No. 16 in grocery;
  • New Belgium Voodoo Ranger variety pack, No. 21 MULO+C and No. 17 in grocery;
  • New Belgium Fat Tire, No. 24 in MULO+C and No. 18 in grocery;
  • And Samuel Adams variety pack, No. 24 in MULO+C and No. 19 in grocery.

New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force IPA is the only new craft brand to crack the craft top 30 list, ranking No. 15 in MULO+C (more than $40.3 million in sales), No. 6 in convenience (nearly $26.5 million in sales) and No. 25 in grocery (nearly $10.7 million in sales).