Total bev-alc sales in off-premise channels (multi-outlet plus convenience) declined -4% week-over-week (WoW) in the week ending July 9, which included the July 4 holiday, according to Circana analyst Scott Scanlon.
The WoW decline “potentially” indicates many consumers did their July 4 bev-alc spending in the weekend leading up to the holiday (week ending July 2), Scanlon wrote in the market research firm’s weekly update. However, year-over-year (YoY) trends were positive, with dollar sales (+8.4) and volume (+3.6%) improving versus the same week in 2022.
Beer recorded “significant” growth in the week, increasing dollar sales +8.3% and volume +3.3% YoY.
Imports were the best performing “core” beer segment over the holiday week, increasing dollar sales +20% and volume +15.9% YoY. Non-alcoholic beer recorded the largest percentage increase in dollar sales (+40.9%) and volume (+29.6%), followed by flavored malt beverages (dollar sales +25.8%, volume +21.9%).
Out of the top 10 beer brands, Boston Beer’s Twisted Tea recorded the largest percentage increase over the holiday week (dollar sales +49% YoY, volume +42.6%). Constellation Brands’ Modelo (dollar sales +30.6%, volume +26.5%) and Molson Coors’ Coors Light (dollar sales +32.3%, volume +26.9%) and Miller Lite (dollar sales +26.7%, volume +21.3%) also recorded significant YoY gains, emboldened by continued declines from Anheuser-Busch (A-B) brands. Dollar sales for A-B’s Budweiser declined -17.3% YoY and volume declined -20.4%.
Nine of the top 10 beer suppliers increased dollar sales and volume in the period. Yuengling (dollar sales +49.2%, volume +43.9%) led the top 10 list in percentage growth, while Lion Little World Beverages (New Belgium Brewing and Bell’s Brewery), Molson Coors, Constellation, and Pabst all also recorded double-digit dollar sales and volume gains.
A-B was the only beer supplier in the top 10 in the red, declining in dollar sales -7% and volume -10.2% YoY.
Scanlon also called out a handful of RTD brands across alcohol-bases for their high performances, including E. & J. Gallo’s High Noon Sun Sips, which increased dollar sales +89.6% YoY over the holiday week and “leaped over Tito’s for [the] No. 1 position within spirits.” BuzzBallz also recorded significant gains (+29.5% YoY).
And “party punch” brand BeatBox entered the spirits top 25 list, with the independent hard punch brand recording triple-digit comps (+157.5% YoY) comparable to Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked hard lemonade (+173.5%), according to Scanlon.
Beer Volume in the Red in Latest Week vs. 2022
One week past the extended holiday weekend, beer is “still displaying growth, primarily due to Mexican beer,” Scanlon wrote in his latest report, released late Monday. Beer dollar sales increased +4.2% YoY in the latest week (ending July 16), although volume was back in the red, declining -0.9% YoY.
In the last 52 weeks, beer dollar sales increased +3.1% YoY, above total bev-alc’s performance in the period (+2.8%). However, beer volume declined -2.9%, marking a larger volume loss than total bev-alc (-2.6%).
Once again, non-alc (dollar sales +33.8%, volume +23.5%), imports (dollar sales +17.7%, volume +13.2%) and FMBs (dollar sales +16.2%, volume +11.7%) were the best performing beer segments in the latest week, despite YoY trends decelerating after the holiday period.
The three segments were also the only ones to record combined dollar sales and volume growth in the last four weeks: non-alc dollar sales +32.9%, volume +22.1%; import dollar sales +14.8%, volume +10.8%; and FMB dollar sales +16.7%, volume +12.4%.
Cider (+3%), craft (+1.2%) and domestic sub-premium (+1.7%) each recorded YoY dollar sales gains in the four-week period, but volume declines (cider -0.7%, craft -2.9% and domestic sub-premium -3.5%). All other beer segments were in decline, led by hard seltzer (dollar sales -17%, volume -21.7%).
Constellation’s import brands Modelo (dollar sales +29.6% YoY), Corona (+10.2%) and Pacifico (+39.9%) continued to post double-digit growth in the latest week. Modelo remained the No. 1 beer brand family by dollar sales and No. 2 by volume, after Bud Light. Molson Coors’ Coors Light (+25.3%) and Miller Lite (+19.8%) brands also continued momentum in the latest week.
Bud Light’s negative trends continued, with dollar sales declining -20.1% YoY and volume declining -23.6%. Bud speciality brands also recorded double-digit declines YoY (dollar sales -16.3%, volume -19.5%).
Top 5 Malt-Based Hard Seltzers All Post Volume Declines
Scanlon also provided insights for ready-to-drink canned cocktails (RTDs), including hard seltzers. During the holiday week (ending July 9), RTD dollar sales increased +12.1% and volume increased +4.9% versus the same week in 2022.
Trends were more moderate in the latest week (ending July 16), with dollar sales increasing +5.1% YoY, but volume declining -1.9%. In the last 52 weeks, the total RTD segment increased dollar sales +5.8% and decreased volume -1.9%.
Malt-based hard seltzer declines continued in the latest week, with dollar sales declining -14.5% YoY and volume declining -19.6%. Three of the top four hard seltzer brands were in the red in the latest week: Boston Beer’s Truly Hard Seltzer (dollar sales -29% YoY, volume -32%); Molson Coors’ Topo Chico Hard Seltzer (dollar sales -18.5%, volume -23.7%); and A-B’s Bud Light Hard Seltzer (dollar sales -50.5%, volume -50.1%).
Mark Anthony’s White Claw, the No. 1 hard seltzer by dollar sales and No. 7 Circana-tracked beer brand, recorded a +0.3% YoY increase in dollar sales in the latest week. However, volume for the brand declined -7.5%.
Spirits-based hard seltzer growth continued, with dollar sales improving +63.5% YoY and volume +53.8%. In the last 52 weeks, spirits-based hard seltzer dollar sales are up +85.7% and volume +80.6%.
Some of that spirits-based growth is due to the sheer amount of new spirits-based hard seltzers in the market. The number of moving universal product codes (UPCs) for spirits-based hard seltzers tracked by Circana has grown by about 200 UPCs since the end of August 2022, to 544 moving UPCs.
An uptick in UPCs doesn’t always guarantee growth for a segment. In the same period, the number of Circana-tracked wine-based hard seltzer UPCs increased from 39 to 187, but the subsegment continues to post significant declines, with dollar sales in the last 52 weeks down -44.3% and volume -48.1%.
High Noon continues to post YoY growth, increasing dollar sales +44.7% and volume +34.8% in the latest week. However, it is back to the No. 2 spirits brand by dollar sales, with Tito’s taking back the No. 1 spot.
Dollar sales growth for the overall RTD segment was led by premixed single-serve canned cocktails, hard lemonade/tea and “other” flavored adult beverages (FAB), Scanlon wrote.
In the last 52-weeks, single-serve canned cocktails increased dollar sales +49.1%, and volume +49.6%. Hard lemonade improved dollar sales +26.2% and volume +19.6% in the period.