Flavor-forward innovations are driving beer category growth and this trend is accelerating, according to the most recent report from Bump Williams Consulting (BWC).
Of the top 25 growth brands at total U.S. off-premise outlets year-to-date (YTD) through June 15, 13 were “flavor-centric” or ready-to-drink (RTD) offerings, BWC founder Bump Williams noted, citing data from market research firm NIQ. In the four-week period ending June 15 (L4W), 16 of the top 25 growth brands were “flavor-centric” or RTD.
YTD flavor-forward growth drivers include:
- Boston Beer’s Truly Hard Seltzer variety packs (Truly Party Pack and Truly Unruly mix pack rolled into one brand, according to BWC president Dave Williams), dollar sales +13,978.8%, compared to the same time last year;
- Boston Beer’s Twisted Tea variety pack, +26.3%;
- Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Blackberry, +225.8%;
- New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, +38.9%;
- Twisted Tea Half and Half, +17.3%;
- White Claw variety pack, +53.6%;
- Mark Anthony’s Cayman Jack Margarita flavored malt beverage (FMB) variety pack, +39.4%;
- Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked variety pack, +703.1%;
- Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial Chelada, +12.8%;
- White Claw Surge variety pack, +17.2%;
- AriZona Hard Iced Tea variety pack, +430.2%;
- Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Cantaritos variety pack, +372.3%;
- And Monster Brewing’s The Beast Unleashed variety pack, +38%.
In the L4W, two brands fell out of the top 25 (Voodoo Ranger Juice Force and the Beast Unleashed) and five new brands were added:
- Truly variety packs, +33,349.4%;
- Twisted Tea variety pack, +17.1%;
- Twisted Tea Half and Half, +16%;
- Simply Spiked variety pack, +377.8%;
- White Claw variety pack, +25.5%;
- Cayman Jack Margarita variety pack, +41.6%;
- White Claw Surge variety pack, +25.5%;
- Modelo Aguas Frescas variety pack, +2,049.6% (new);
- White Claw Blackberry, +76.8%;
- Modelo Chelada Limon y Sal, +15.9% (new);
- White Claw Black Cherry, +8% (new);
- A-B’s Cantaritos variety pack, +777.2%;
- Modelo Especial Chelada, +11%;
- Happy Dad Hard Seltzer variety pack, +73% (new);
- AriZona Hard Iced Tea variety pack, +130.8%;
- And A-B’s Bud Light Chelada Original, +10.9% (new).
“There has also been a slightly higher concentration of flavor-centric/ready-to-drink style brands among the T25 heading into July as brands like Modelo Aguas Frescas mix pack and Happy Dad mix pack join the ranks,” Williams wrote. “We see a similar phenomenon taking place on the wine and spirits side of the world too, as brands like Surfside Starter Pack vaulted up the ranks and other RTD products like Mom Water mix pack and additional cocktail-styles from [Sazarac’s] BuzzBallz crack the T25.
“Pair those developments along with an uptick in the number of tequila brands being featured and we can start to form some assumptions of what to expect when it comes to standout performance areas in the coming months,” he continued.
Rounding out the top 25 growth brands in the L4W are nine lagers, two of which have seen trends accelerate from YTD:
- Constellation’s Modelo Especial, +12.2%;
- A-B’s Michelob Ultra, +6.7% (up from +1.2% YTD);
- A-B’s Busch Light, +10.1% (up from +3.2% YTD);
- Constellation’s Pacifico, +23.3%;
- Constellation’s Corona Familiar, +19%;
- Corona Extra, +1.8% (not in top 25 YTD);
- Coors Banquet, +11.1%;
- Constellation’s Victoria, +32.7%;
- And A-B’s Natural Light, +3.1% (not in top 25 YTD).
“The most visible changes in the rankings over the latest four weeks include an ascension of key brands from the ABI portfolio, with Mich Ultra and Busch Light now joining Modelo Especial among the top three, and Corona Extra making an appearance alongside its Familiar family member,” Williams wrote. “We also see premium brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite fall off the top 25 rankings, but Coors Banquet has held steady and now represents the only premium brand entry among the top 25 over the L4W.”
In addition to a close examination of growth brands, BWC explored beer category growth and loss by segment. Only two segments – imports and flavored malt beverages (FMB) – have contributed significantly more growth than loss in the first half of the year.
YTD through June 15, imports contributed 29.6% of the beer category’s incremental dollar sales and just 5.8% of its losses, according to NIQ data cited by BWC. FMBs contributed 22.9% of incremental dollars and 9.9% of losses.
Four segments were underwater:
- Below premium contributed 2.7% of gains and 4.2% of losses;
- Super premium, 2.8% of gains, 4.1% of losses;
- Premium, 7.2% of gains, 31.7% of losses;
- And hard seltzer, 10.1% of gains, 19.7% of losses.
Craft, cider and malt liquor were fairly balanced:
- Craft contributed 22.1% of gains and 21.7% of losses;
- Cider, 2.4% of gains, 2.3% of losses.
- And malt liquor, 0.2% of gains, 0.8% of losses.
Across all segments, the majority of brands (58.5%) are in decline. Hard seltzer is in the lead with 76.4% of its brands contributing to the category’s -$1.555 billion in losses, followed by FMBs (58.3%), craft (57.9%), cider (57.4%), super premium and premium (both at 56.5%), malt liquor (55.8%), imports (55.1%) and below premium (52.3%), according to BWC.
The top 25 new beer category brands YTD through June 15 include three non-alcoholic (NA) offerings – No. 4 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon NA, No. 14 White Claw 0% variety pack and No. 18 Sierra Nevada Trail Pass NA IPA.
In addition, three crossover brands (indicating partnership with a spirits brand or NA brand) also made the list: No. 6 Captain Morgan Sliced FMBs variety pack, No. 7 Monster’s Nasty Beast Hard Tea variety pack, and No. 15 AriZona Hard Juice variety pack.
Two crossover brands also made the wine and spirits categories’ top 25 new entrants, No. 7 Absolut Ocean Spray RTD variety pack and No. 9 Sunny D vodka seltzer variety pack. Wine-based Minute Maid Spiked entered the top 25 in the L4W, according to BWC.
Sixteen of the top 25 new wine and spirits brands YTD are RTDs, which grew to 17 in the L4W.
“The one big takeaway that I picked up after this exercise is just how similar beer, wine and spirits are now starting to look when it comes to growth leaders, style/taste profile/flavor and especially innovation leaders through 2024,” Williams wrote. “While there are still certainly some prominent entries from long-standing, and in some cases perhaps considered more ‘traditional,’ brand offerings from families such as Coors, Michelob, Busch, Tito’s and Buffalo Trace, it is clear that there is still a massive wave of flavor-centric, ready-to-drink, cocktail-style/inspired offerings that crisscross across beer, wine and spirits.”
The cross-category synergies may prove to be an accelerant for future deal-making, he noted.
“It’s the perfect storm for accelerated growth of joint ventures, strategic partnerships and outright acquisitions of beer, wine and spirits … and non-alcoholic/CPG companies all looking to capture those shopping occasions of a more concentrated group of consumers,” Williams wrote.