2025’s drinking occasions just can’t hold a candle to 2024, it seems.
In the lead up to St. Patrick’s Day (week ending March 16), off-premise bev-alc sales recorded a -3.9% decline year-over-year (YoY), market research firm Circana reported in its newest batch of weekly data. Holiday shopping delivered a +5% increase week-over-week (WoW).
“We continue to see negativity vs. prior year comps, but as expected, overperformance vs. prior week with help from St. Patrick,” Circana EVP of bev-alc Scott Scanlon wrote.
Dollar sales declined YoY across all mega categories. Spirits were nearly flat at -0.6% YoY, followed by beer (-4.4%) and wine (-5.2%). The ready-to-drink segment – which includes products that fall under beer, wine and spirits – posted modest growth at +0.3% YoY.
Overall bev-alc’s volume sales declined -5.5% YoY, slightly offset by spirits, which recorded volume growth at +2.2% YoY. All other categories declined. Wine posted the deepest volume decline at -6.6%, followed by beer (-5.9%) and RTDs (-4.5%).
With St. Patrick’s Day not delivering a needed YoY boost, hope may be scarce, as the next gathering occasion, Easter (April 20), is still nearly a month away.
“Upcoming, we are likely to see retracement after this week,” Scanlon wrote. “The following four weeks have historically held within a fairly consistent trend. Hopefully, consumer sentiment can pivot and broaden alcohol growth beyond a small group of brands from week to week.”
All eyes were on Diageo-owned Guinness, which unofficially owns St. Patrick’s Day. Dollar sales of the Irish stout nearly tripled WoW – $12 million in the weekend ending March 16, compared to $4.8 million in the week ending March 9.
It was a “surge enough to shoot [the] brand to [the] 12th position for the week, behind Heineken,” Scanlon wrote. But Guinness couldn’t top its St. Patrick’s Day 2024 sales, and declined -13.7% in dollars and -16% in volume YoY.
Within the beer category, the domestic super premium segment remains a bright spot with +3% YoY growth, bolstered by Anheuser-Busch (A-B) InBev’s Michelob Ultra, the third-largest beer category brand family.
Dollar sales of the Michelob family reached $69.9 million (+4.1% YoY) and volume increased +3.9%, making it one of few beer category brand families to post gains in both metrics during the week.
Other beer category brand families that grew both dollars and volume included:
- A-B’s Busch , +3.9% in dollars (to $36 million), and +1.7% in volume;
- Mark Anthony Brands’ Mike’s Harder Lemonade , +3.5% in dollars (to $8.7 million), and +1.8% in volume;
- Constellation Brands’ Pacifico, +6% in dollars (to $7.4 million), and +3.5% in volume;
- Mark Anthony’s Cayman Jack , +7.6% in dollars ($4.7 million), and +4.1% in volume;
- Geloso’s ClubTails , +8.7% in dollars (to $3.9 million), and +6.6% in volume;
- Constellation’s Victoria , +28.2% in dollars (to $2.4 million), and +28.3% in volume;
- A-B’s Goose Island , +12% in dollars (to $1.9 million), and +5.6% in volume;
- A-B’s Elysian , +2.3% in dollars (to $1.8 million), and +3% in volume;
- Athletic, +24.2% in dollars ($1.9 million), and +26.9% in volume.
At the top of the beer category, Constellation’s Modelo and A-B’s Bud families continue to “battle each week” for the top spot. This week, the honor went to Modelo, which reached $87.3 million in off-premise sales (-4% YoY). The Bud family’s dollar sales declined -8.6%, to $85.8 million. Both brand families recorded volume losses – Modelo -5.8% and Bud -9.5%.
In the spirits category, several RTD brands continue to grow:
- Gallo’s High Noon Sun Sips, +8.5% in dollars (to $7.8 million), and -0.3% in volume;
- Sazerac’s BuzzBallz, +60.5% in dollars (to $7.6 million), and +61.9% in volume;
- BeatBox, +42.3% in dollars (to $4.8 million), and +40.7% in volume;
- A-B’s Cutwater, +20.3% in dollars (to $2.9 million), and +24.5% in volume;
- A-B’s NÜTRL, +27% in dollars (to $1.9 million), and +25.5% in volume;
- Atomic’s Monaco Cocktails, +17.5% in dollars (to $1.5 million), and +15.6% in volume;
- Beam Suntory’s On The Rocks, +14.5% in dollars (to $1.3 million) and +17.4% in volume;
- And MPL Brands’ Big Sipz, +101.3% in dollars (to $1.2 million) and +96.6% in volume.