Total U.S. beer supply returned to the red in November, taking a step back after a strong October, according to the Beer Institute (BI) in the trade group’s latest round of economic reports.
Total beer supply – including domestic shipments and imports – declined -4% versus November 2023. Beer supply was nearly flat in October, declining -0.6% year-over-year (YoY), and has now declined -1.7% YoY through the first 11 months of 2024.
“The industry stabilized in the fourth quarter of 2024 to close the year,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote. “Outside of the summer months of Q3, which account for 80% of the yearly volume decline, the beer industry was roughly flat in 2024.”
November domestic tax paids declined -2.4% YoY, to 10.53 million barrels, according to the BI, citing estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB), which are subject to change. October estimates were also adjusted, increasing +0.8%, to 11.36 million barrels. Previous estimates recorded 11.4 million barrels in October, a +1.2% YoY increase.
Domestic tax paid shipments have now declined -3.4% year-to-date (YTD), to nearly 135.51 million barrels, a loss of nearly -4.78 million barrels versus the first 11 months of 2023.
November state shipments declined -3.5% YoY, to more than 14.57 million barrels. Shipments to wholesalers have now declined -1.5% YTD, to nearly 175.31 million barrels.
Four states have increased shipments YTD, including the second largest state by YTD shipments, California (+1.1%, to nearly 18.43 million barrels), as well as Indiana (+0.2%, to more than 3.36 million barrels), Iowa (+0.1%, to more than 2.02 million barrels) and Nevada (+2.5%, to nearly 2.14 million barrels).
Texas, the No. 1 state by shipment volume, has recorded a -0.5% decline YTD, to nearly 19.55 million barrels.
Imports took the largest YoY hit in November, declining -9.5%, marking the second consecutive month of YoY declines, according to data from the Department of Commerce. However, imports remain in the black YTD (+4.8%, to more than 38.95 million barrels).
November’s YoY decline was partially due a -10.3% decline in imports from Mexico, the largest beer importer to the U.S., with nearly tenfold the volume of No. 2 Netherlands. The Netherlands also recorded a significant YoY decline (-23.1%), along with No. 4 Canada (-42.2%) and No. 9 Jamaica (-44.1%).
All other countries in the top 10 increased imports YoY:
- No. 3 Ireland (+36%);
- No. 5 Germany (+34.2%);
- No. 6 Italy (+45.5%);
- No. 7 Belgium (+63.7%);
- No. 8 Guatemala (+6.7%);
- And No. 10 the U.K. (+214.6%).
Heritage noted that “uncertainty around future trade policy is leading beer importers to deplete existing inventory in order to rebuild inventories with fresh supply in early 2025.” That uncertainty includes the threat of tariffs on imported goods from Mexico, Canada and China, posed by president-elect Donald Trump.
The December 2024 reports are scheduled to be released February 5.