Domestic tax paid shipments increased +1.8% in January 2024 versus January 2023, marking the first year-over-year (YoY) increase since February 2023, according to the Beer Institute (BI), citing estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
An estimated 11.4 million barrels were shipped in January, an increase of 204,322 barrels versus January 2023, when domestic tax paid shipments declined -3.5% YoY. However, “it’s too soon to say if January’s increase in shipments marks a turnaround for the beer industry,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote in the trade group’s monthly report.
“Depletions in the scan data were in negative territory for January,” Heritage said. “But the increase in shipments volume at an earlier stage in the distribution channel may signal stronger sales to come in the months ahead.
“The macroeconomic environment remains moderately favorable from the consumer side,” he continued.
Total domestic beer supply (domestic plus imports) increased +4.2% YoY in January, bolstered by a +13.8% YoY increase in imports, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Mexican imports continue to grow, increasing volume +24.9% YoY, an addition of about 16.2 million barrels versus January 2023.
Heritage also called out growth in other “large beer-importing countries” such as Ireland (+29.1% YoY, to more than 4.35 million barrels) and Canada (+8.7%, to nearly 2.45 million barrels). The Netherlands, the second largest beer importer, continues to record declines, with imports from the country declining -31.5% YoY, from more than 12.22 million barrels in January 2023, to nearly 8.38 million barrels in January 2024.
January state shipments increased +5.8% YoY, an increase of 812,000 barrels versus January 2023. The country’s largest states by shipment volume recorded “much stronger” trends than 2023, including Texas (+18.9%), California (+12.8%), New York (+8.7%) and Florida (+3.6%).
Seven other states recorded double-digit YoY gains – Connecticut (+10.4%), Massachusetts (+12.7%), New Hampshire (+10.1%), New Mexico (+12.7%), Oklahoma (+26.4%), Oregon (+19.5%) and Washington (+13.4%) – marking “a welcome change from 2023 after all states finished the year in negative territory,” Heritage wrote.