Circana: Craft Losses Improve in May, Grocery Channel Still a Drag

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Although still in decline, craft beer’s dollar sales and volume losses eased up in May, according to the most recent off-premise report from market research firm Circana.

In the four-week period ending May 18 (L4W), craft’s dollar sales and volume, measured in case sales, declined 5.6% and 7%, respectively, at mutli-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C).

While those metrics mark a slight acceleration from the segment’s year-to-date (YTD) trends (-4.8% and -6%, respectively), they depict an improvement from the previous L4W period, ending April 20 (-6.3% and -7.2%).

Craft’s declines continue to outpace the overall beer category, which declined 2.6% in dollars and 4.2% in volume YTD. Overall beer’s dollar sales declines remained steady at -2.6% in the L4W, while volume losses improved slightly, to -4%.

Similar to last month’s Circana report, craft’s losses were dragged down by the grocery channel, where the segment over-indexes (No. 3 segment overall behind domestic premiums and imports) compared to c-stores, where it is the sixth-largest segment. In grocery stores, craft’s dollar sales declines accelerated to 8.4% in the L4W (versus -6.2% YTD and -7.8% in the prior L4W), and volume losses accelerated to 9.3% (versus -7.1% YTD and -6.8% in the prior L4W).

In c-stores, craft’s YTD losses in dollars and volume (-2% and -3.6%, respectively) have decelerated in the L4W, to -1.2% in dollars and -3.1% in volume – not enough to offset the segment’s declines in grocery.

Stylistically, IPAs continue to dominate the segment, accounting for 53.49% of craft dollars in MULO+C YTD, up 2.19% year-over-year. The style’s share is even higher in the convenience channel at 67.2% of craft dollars YTD. In grocery stores, IPAs account for 45.93% of craft dollars.

It is important to note that off-premise scan data paints an incomplete picture, as it does not capture all off-premise retailers and excludes all on-premise and at-the-brewery sales, which are important to craft.

Among the top 30 craft brands in Circana-tracked MULO+C channels, 10 posted growth in both dollars and volume. Six of those recorded accelerated dollar sales growth:

  • No. 2 Kirin-owned New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, +4.5% in dollars and +3.2% in volume YTD, and +5.6% in dollars and +4.9% in volume L4W;
  • No. 8 Anheuser-Busch (A-B) InBev-owned Kona Big Wave, +3.8% in dollars and +4.2% in volume YTD, and +4.1% in dollars and +8.5% in volume L4W;
  • No. 16 A-B’s Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH Double IPA, +27% in dollars and +24.8% in volume YTD, and +32% in dollars and +29.2% in volume L4W;
  • No. 17 Monster-owned Jai Alai IPA, +2.7% in dollars and +3.7% in volume YTD, and +5% in dollars and +3.9% in volume L4W;
  • No. 20 Heineken-owned A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ Ale, +0.2% in dollars and -3.1% in volume YTD, and +7.3% in dollars and +4.2% in volume L4W;
  • And No. 27 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA, +6.3% in dollars and +0.6% in volume YTD, and +10.2% in dollars and +2.5% in volume L4W.

Of those six, L4W price changes may have affected trends for Kona Big Wave, which dropped its average case price by $1.50, and Bodhizafa, which increased price by $3.81.

Growth slowed for five of the 11 brands with positive YTD dollar sales. No. 10 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force endured the sharpest deceleration, with YTD gains (+54.1% in dollars, +54.7% in volume) dropping to +4.7% in dollars and +6% in volume L4W. Other decelerations included:

  • No. 3 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, +10.2% in dollars and +8.7% in volume YTD, and +9.5% in dollars and +9.1% in volume L4W;
  • No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, +1.5% in dollars and +0.4% in volume YTD, and +1.1% in dollars and -1.1% in volume L4W;
  • No. 7 A-B’s Elysian Space Dust, +5.7% in dollars and +6.9% in volume YTD, and +4.5% in dollars and +2.9% in volume L4W;
  • And No. 10 A-B’s Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, +27.4% in dollars and +28.9% in volume YTD, and +21.9% in dollars and +20.8% in volume L4W.

Of the 19 top-30 craft brands in decline, 11 showed signs of improvement between YTD and L4W data:

  • No. 6 Gambrinus-owned Shiner Bock, -6.7% in dollars and -6.9% in volume YTD, and -5.5% in dollars and -6.4% in volume L4W;
  • No. 9 Lagunitas IPA, -7.8% in dollars and -10.2% in volume YTD, and -5.9% in dollars and -7.7% in volume L4W;
  • No. 13 New Belgium-owned Bell’s Two Hearted IPA, -4.2% in dollars and -5.5% in volume YTD, and -1% in dollars and -2.1% in volume L4W;
  • No. 18 Boston Beer’s Samuel Adams Boston Lager, -9.2% in dollars and -10.2% in volume YTD, and -8.3% in dollars and -9.4% in volume L4W;
  • No. 22 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Variety Pack, -28.8% in dollars and -29.7% in volume YTD, and -18.2% in dollars and -18.8% in volume L4W;
  • No. 23 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA, -16% in dollars and -15.4% in volume YTD, and -6.1% in dollars and -0.6% in volume L4W, likely driven by a $2.59 decrease in average case price;
  • No. 24 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force, -50.8% in dollars and -51.2% in volume YTD, and -35.4% in dollars and -35.1% in volume L4W;
  • No. 25 New Belgium Fat Tire, -21.5% in dollars and -22% in volume YTD, and -18.9% in dollars and -16% in volume L4W;
  • No. 26 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, -17.3% in dollars and -18% in volume YTD, and -16.3% in dollars and -18% in volume L4W;
  • No. 28 Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing, -2.9% in dollars and -4.1% in volume YTD, and +0.9% in dollars and -1.9% in volume L4W;
  • And No. 30 A-B’s Goose Island IPA, -17.2% in dollars and -17.3% in volume YTD, and -14.9% in dollars and -15.9% in volume L4W.

Eight brands declined at a faster rate in the L4W compared to YTD:

  • No. 1 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon Belgian White, -8.2% in dollars and -12.4% in volume YTD, and -9.7% in dollars and -15.7% in volume L4W;
  • No. 5 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, -5.1% in dollars and -6.1% in volume YTD, and -6.6% in dollars and -7.6% in volume L4W;
  • No. 11 Duvel-owned Firestone Walker 805, -7% in dollars and -9.4% in volume YTD, and -8.8% in dollars and -10.8% in volume L4W;
  • No. 12 Mahou-owned Founders All Day IPA, -5.9% in dollars and -6.5% in volume YTD, and -8.9% in dollars and -9.8% in volume L4W;
  • No. 14 Samuel Adams seasonal, -5.8% in dollars and -6.5% in volume YTD, and -10% in dollars and -10.8% in volume L4W;
  • No. 15 Molson Coors’ Leinenkugel’s Shandy, -13.9% in dollars and -16% in volume YTD, and -17.9% in dollars and -19.1% in volume L4W;
  • No. 21 Blue Moon Light, -5.2% in dollars and -6% in volume YTD, and -14.5% in dollars and -15.1% in volume L4W;
  • And No. 29 Rhinegeist Truth IPA, -0.3% in dollars and -1.5% in volume YTD, and -3.7% in dollars and -4.5% in volume L4W.

Three brands ranked among the top 30 in the grocery channel, but did not crack the top 30 MULO+C:

  • No. 26 Bell’s Seasonal, dollars sales declined 22%, to $3.839 million YTD;
  • No. 27 Sapporo-owned Stone IPA, dollar sales increased 3%, to $3.695 million YTD;
  • And No. 29 Samuel Adams variety pack, dollar sales declined 27.7%, to $3.641 million YTD.

Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug and Rhinegeist Truth IPA did not rank in the top 30 in grocery stores. Both over-indexed in the convenience channel, with the former landing at No. 7 in c-stores and the latter at No. 22.

Four brands ranked among the top 30 in c-stores without making the top 30 MULO+C list:

  • No. 26 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger IPA, dollar sales declined 33.9%, to $3.321 million YTD;
  • No. 27 Goose Island Big Juicy Tropical Beer Hug, dollar sales increased 278%, to $3.309 million YTD;
  • No. 28 Fiddlehead IPA, dollar sales declined -0.9%, to $2.995 million YTD;
  • And No. 29 Tilray-owned SweetWater 420 Extra Pale Ale, dollar sales increased 3.6%, to $2.739 million YTD.

Several craft producers were among the 25 largest beer category vendors in MULO+C despite not many (or any, in some cases) of their brands ranking on the top 30 craft list. They include:

  • No. 15 Tilray Brands, dollar sales declined 17.4%, to $68.89 million YTD;
  • No. 18 Athletic Brewing, dollar sales increased 26.6%, to $40.524 million YTD;
  • No. 22 Artisanal Brewing Ventures (Victory, Southern Tier, Sixpoint, Bold Rock Cider), dollar sales declined -3.3%, to $36.117 million YTD;
  • No. 24 Monster-owned CANarchy Craft Brewery Collective (Cigar City, Oskar Blues, Deep Ellum, Squatters, Wasatch, Perrin), dollar sales declined -0.7%, to $32.434 million YTD.