More than one-third (34%) of distributors believe this summer will be stronger for beer sales than summer 2024, according to a recent survey by Goldman Sachs.
The latest results, shared earlier this month in a Bev Bytes report, display a notable improvement in distributor sentiment compared to Goldman Sachs’ post-Memorial Day survey, when 20% of respondents said they expected improved summer trends compared to 2024. Additionally, 28% of respondents to the latest survey said they expect beer sales to be weaker, down from 55% in the Memorial Day survey.
Distributors’ more positive outlook is in part due to “stronger than expected” July 4 trends (previously reported here) as well as accelerated sales in Q2 compared to Q1, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
About half of surveyed respondents (52%) said beer category sales accelerated in Q2, while 12% said trends were stable. Improvement was “broadly expected, given how pressured the category was in Q1 and considering some recently improved weather,” analysts wrote.
The reasons given by distributors as to why trends improved included:
- Growth trends from Anheuser-Buch InBev’s (A-B) Michelob Ultra and Busch Light;
- “Improved weather trends;”
- “The consumer is more comfortable with the state of the economy” compared to Q1;
- Growth from ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs);
- And seasonality trends, with historically higher beer consumption in Q2 compared to Q1.
Still, slightly more than one-third of respondents (36%) said Q2 sales decelerated compared to Q1. Reasons given for the declines included:
- “Broader inflationary pressures” that are “making a big dent in beer category growth;”
- “Continued pressure on the Hispanic consumer,” including “fear over ICE raids;”
- “Stale beer advertising trends;”
- And “some impact from [intoxicating] hemp, Delta-9 and THC beverages.”
Looking ahead, 53% of distributors expect the second half of 2025 (H2) to be “stronger” compared to H1, while 22% believe trends will remain stable through the full year. One-quarter believe H2 beer trends will be weaker than H1.
“All in, distributors are now more optimistic on the category’s growth outlook this year – expecting beer category growth declines of only 1% (versus -1.9% in our Memorial Day survey),” analysts wrote. “Note that this is broadly in line with category growth seen in ‘24 (-0.8%, provided in our Memorial Day survey in 2024).”
Nearly halfway through the year, total beer dollar sales (-3.1%) and volume (-4.5%) are both down single-digits year-to-date (YTD) in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. multi-outlet plus convenience, data ending June 15).
Only two beer segments are in the black YTD:
- Domestic super premium, dollar sales +2.6% (total beer dollar share +0.55 points, 9.94%), volume +2.7% (volume share +0.7 points, to 10.07%);
- And non-alcoholic (NA) beer, dollar sales +22.8% (share -0.28 points, to 1.31%), volume +24.8% (share +0.26 points, to 1.12%).
All other segments are in decline:
- Imports, dollar sales -2.5% (share +0.15 points, to 24.65%), volume -4.2% (share +0.06 points, to 20.19%);
- Domestic premium, dollar sales -6.3% (share -0.83 points, to 24.03%), volume -7.5% (share -0.95 points, to 29.49%);
- Domestic sub-premium, dollar sales -2% (share +0.13 points, to 11.97%), volume -3.2% (share +0.24 points, to 18.62%);
- Flavored malt beverages (FMBs), dollar sales -1.9% (share +0.12 points, to 10.42%), volume -3.9% (share +0.05 points, to 7.77%);
- Craft, dollar sales -5.1% (share -0.21 points, to 9.88%), volume -6.5% (share -0.15 points, to 6.95%);
- Hard seltzer, dollar sales -5.8% (share -0.2 points, to 6.7%), volume -8.7% (share -0.23 points, to 5.09%);
- Hard cider, dollar sales -0.8% (share +0.02 points, to 1.06%), volume -1.7% (share +0.02 points, to 0.67%);
- Assorted, dollar sales -29.4% (share -0.01 points, to 0.03%), volume -31% (share -0.01 points, to 0.02%).