Total bev-alc dollar sales declined -2% both year-over-year (YoY) and week-over-week (WoW) in Circana-tracked off-premise channels through May 18, according to the market research firm’s latest weekly report.
The declines were somewhat expected due to post-holiday pullback after Cinco de Mayo (May 5) and Mother’s Day (May 11), and a pre-holiday slowing ahead of Memorial Day (May 26), Circana EVP, BevAlc Scott Scanlon reported.
“Upcoming, focus toward Memorial Day remains with the hopes the grills were warming up consumers enough to battle against the cooler weather (at least in those residing in the chilly Midwest),” Scanlon wrote. “Will be interesting to see if the holiday can boost beer enough to offset the slow start to the year.”
Beer dollar sales declined 2.2% YoY and volume 3.5% in the latest week. In the last 12 weeks, beer dollar sales were down 2.5% and volume down 4.1%. Domestic super premium (+3%) and domestic sub-premium (+1%) were the only beer segments to record YoY dollar sales growth.
Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Michelob Ultra “carries the growth torch” for the overall beer category at the moment, consistently recording positive dollar sales and volume trends, according to Scanlon. The offering was the third largest beer brand by dollar sales in the latest week, with dollars up 5% YoY and volume growing 4.5%.
Michelob’s sibling Busch, the eighth largest beer brand family, has also consistently recorded growth through the year, including double-digit figures in the last two weeks (week ending May 18, dollar sales +11.6%, volume +7.1%; week ending May 11, dollar sales +31.5%, volume +26%).
“Michelob Ultra and Busch momentum [is] likely to continue but would not be surprised if [we] see a Modelo spike as well given [the] brand’s holiday out performance,” Scanlon wrote.
Constellation Brands’ Modelo, the largest beer brand family by dollar sales, has been uncharacteristically in the red for several weeks, with dollar sales down 1.2% and volume 3.7% in the latest report. Its sibling brand Corona was also in the red in the latest week (dollar sales -0.2%, volume -2.1%), while Pacifico remained up double-digits (dollar sales +16.1%, volume +13.1%).
“Also, it is not much of a reach to proclaim RTDs [ready-to-drink cocktails] will perform well. The hot brands routinely spike during events/holidays, [and] this coming Memorial Day offers both, with racing, basketball and hockey on many consumers’ minds,” Scanlon added.
Beer-, wine- and spirits-based RTDs continued to outpace overall bev-alc dollar sales trends in the latest week (+1.3% YoY), while volume was on-par with the industry (-3.5%). Over the last 12 weeks, RTD dollar sales have grown 2.8% YoY, while volume was down 2.1%.
Wine leads YoY declines, with dollar sales down 5.3% and volume 6% in the latest week, and dollar sales down 5% and volume 5.9% in the last 12 weeks.
Spirits leads growth, with dollar sales up 1.9% YoY and volume up +5.2%. In the last 12 weeks, spirits dollars sales have grown 1.5% and volume 4.6%.