The latest weekly scans do not “provide overwhelming confidence” for the bev-alc industry’s July 4 performance, according to Circana EVP, BelAl Scott Scanlon.
In the week ending June 29 – the final week before Independence Day – total bev-alc recorded declines in both dollar sales (-3.9%) and volume (-5.3%) in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. multi-outlet plus convenience). Both declines also outpaced negative trends in the last 12 weeks (L12W), in which dollar sales declined 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) and volume fell 4.3%.
Wine continues to lead declines, with dollar sales and volume declining 7.4% and 7.8%, respectively, in the latest week. The latest losses are about double what the category has recorded in the L12W (dollar sales -3.2%, volume -4.4%).
Beer declines also outpaced the total bev-alc industry (dollar sales -4.1%, volume -5.8%), and accelerated compared to L12W trends (dollar sales -3.4%, volume -4.8%).
Spirits eked out slight dollar sales growth (+0.8%), and significant volume growth (+5.6%), thanks to the continued expansion of spirits-based RTDs. Volume gains for the category have remained consistent over the L12W (+5.2%), while dollar sales growth has slowed (L12W +2.1%).
“Spirits builds on the RTD theme with [Gallo’s] High Noon [Sun Sips] leading the category and clearly setting up for Fourth growth, along of course with [Sazerac’s] BuzzBallz that continues to deliver,” Scanlon wrote. “Surfside is [the] newest hyper-growth brand, accelerating to 18th position now.”
High Noon, which outpaced former No. 1 Tito’s Vodka in weekly dollar sales, recorded positive dollar growth in the latest week (+3.6%), but negative volume trends (-8.4%). Meanwhile, BuzzBallz, the third-largest spirits brand in the week, continued to post nearly triple-digit gains (dollar sales +86.1%, volume +94.6%).
The overall RTD category – including beer-, wine- and spirits-based offerings – recorded positive dollar sales change in the latest week (+0.9%), but negative volume trajectory (-4.4%). In the L12W, dollar sales increased 1% YoY, while volume declined 3.9%.
“This week’s release does not provide overwhelming confidence in next week, but again there are some positives to focus on,” Scanlon wrote. “[Domestic] super premium and [ready-to-drink] RTDs continue to work and see that trend continuing forward through the holiday. Still believe the Fourth of July falling on Friday will help, the question how concentrated the growth will be answered in seven days.”
Domestic super premium dollar sales were up 2.2% in the latest week, and were one of two beer segments (excluding non-alc) to record growth, along with hard cider (+1.3%). Both categories’ performances are in stark contrast to a year ago, when domestic super premium dollar sales were down 8% YoY and hard cider was down 19.3%, in the week ending June 30, 2024.
Import dollar sales declined 3.5% in the latest week, marking continued declines for a segment that was in the black a year ago (+5.5%). However, despite the segment’s overall trends, two Mexican import brands led growth among the top 50 beer brands in the latest week: Constellation’s Pacifico (dollar sales +12%, volume +7.7%) and Victoria (dollar sales +28.2%, volume +21.1%).
Meanwhile, the two brands’ sibling Modelo – the largest beer brand by year-to-date (YTD) dollar sales – recorded continued YoY declines (dollar sales -3.3%, volume -6%), a trend that has persisted due in no small part to continued macroeconomic trends such as tariffs, ICE raids and inflation. Corona, Constellation’s second-largest brand and the fifth-largest beer brand family overall, recorded slightly smaller YoY losses (dollar sales -2.1%, volume -4.4%).
Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) portfolio had similarly mismatched performances across its top brands. The following brands recorded declines:
- Bud Light, dollar sales -3.3%, volume -6%;
- Natural Light, dollar sales -2.3%, volume -3.5%;
- And Bud Sub-Premium, dollar sales -8.3%, volume -6.4%.
Meanwhile, four brand families posted dollar sales growth:
- Michelob, dollar sales +3.1%, volume +3.3%;
- Busch, dollar sales +2.5%, volume +1%;
- Goose Island, dollar sales +7.8%, volume -0.7%;
- And Elysian, dollar sales +3.1%, volume +0.9%.
July 4 data will be released next week. As Scanlon noted last week, “given poor Memorial Day performance, all eyes will be on the Fourth of July to see if we can recapture lost sales.”