Circana: Craft’s Slowing Decline Hits a Snag; Growth Brands Fail to Accelerate Gains

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Craft beer ended its four-month streak of off-premise dollar sales improvement during the four-week period (L4W) that ended December 1, according to market research firm Circana.

In the period, craft dollar sales declined -2.5%, an acceleration from the previous L4W (through November 3), in which sales declined -1.9% year-over-year (YoY) in multi-outlet grocery, mass retail and convenience stores (MULO+C), according to Circana’s most recent report.

Volume, measured in case sales, declined -1.8% YoY in the L4W, an improvement over the prior four weeks (-3.4%).

In the four-week period ending October 6, dollar sales declined -3.6% and volume declined -5.4%, which were marked improvements over the four-week periods ending September 9 (dollars -5%, volume -6.6%) and August 11 (dollars -6.5%, volume -7.8%).

As it did in Circana’s last report, craft still trails the overall beer category, which is up +1.1% in dollar sales and down -0.9% in volume in the L4W. Non-alcoholic (NA) beer continues to lead in growth (+26.9% in dollars, +22.6% in volume), followed by domestic super premiums (+6.8% in dollars, +6.6% in volume), flavored malt beverages (+5.2% in dollars, +3.9% in volume), imports (+4.3% in dollars, +2.3% in volume), cider (+1.7% in dollars, +0.6% in volume) and domestic sub premiums (-0.7% in dollars, -3% in volume).

Both domestic premiums (-3% in dollars, -4.4% in volume) and hard seltzer (-2.7% in dollars and -5.4% in volume) lag behind craft’s declines in the L4W, according to Circana.

Through the first 11 months of 2024, seven craft brands of Circana’s top 30 recorded growth in both dollar sales and volume. In the L4W, five of those brands maintained their gains in both dollars and volume, albeit increasing at a slower rate than their year-to-date (YTD) gains. No growth brands accelerated sales from YTD to the L4W.

One maintained its dollar sales gains in the L4W, but posted a decline in volume: No. 29 Seattle-based Georgetown Brewing Bodhizafa IPA (+10.4% in dollars and +9% in volume YTD, +5% in dollars and -3.4% in volume in the L4W).

One brand’s double-digit growth YTD has become YoY losses in the L4W: No. 3 Kirin-owned New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juice Force Hazy Imperial IPA (+18.7% in dollars and +17% in volume YTD, -0.7% in dollars and -2.7% in volume in the L4W).

The five brands that maintained growth from YTD through the L4W include:

  • No. 2 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, +4.5% in dollars and +2.4% in volume YTD, +3% in dollars and +0.9% in dollars in the L4W;
  • No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA, +7.9% in dollars and +6.5% in volume YTD, +6.9% in dollars and +6.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 8 Anheuser-Busch (A-B) InBev-owned Kona Big Wave, +15.4% in dollars and +15.5% in volume YTD, +9.8% in dollars and +8.2% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 20 A-B’s Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug DDH Double IPA, +29.7% in dollars and +25.6% in volume YTD, +29.2% in dollars and +25.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 24 A-B’s Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, +8.1% in dollars and +6.5% in volume YTD, +5.8% in dollars and +5% in volume in the L4W.

Five brands reversed their YTD declines in dollars and volume to grow in both in the L4W:

  • No. 1 Molson Coors-owned Blue Moon Belgian White, -3.5% in dollars and -5.4% in volume YTD, +3% in dollars and +2.9% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 7 Gambrinus-owned Shiner Bock, -5.9% in dollars and -6.5% in volume YTD, +1.3% in dollars and +4.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 9 Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s Shandy, -11.5% in dollars and -14.3% in volume YTD, +33.1% in dollars and +28.9% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 10 A-B’s Elysian Space Dust IPA, -5.6% in dollars and -6.1% in volume YTD, +2.7% in dollars and +3.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 19 Blue Moon Light, -5% in dollars and -6.3% in volume YTD, +11.7% in dollars and +14.7% in volume in the L4W.

Eight of the top 30 brands recorded decelerating losses between the YTD and L4W periods:

  • No. 5 Boston Beer-owned Samuel Adams seasonal, -9.1% in dollars and -10.7% in volume YTD, -5% in dollars and -5.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 6 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, -4% in dollars and -7.6% in volume YTD, -2.8% in dollars and -3.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 11 Heineken-owned Lagunitas IPA, -8% in dollars and -11.6% in volume YTD, -6.6% in dollars and -10% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 12 Duvel USA-owned Firestone Walker 805, -4.4% in dollars and -6.9% in volume YTD, -4% in dollars and -6.9% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 13 Mahou USA-owned Founders All Day IPA, -4.1% in dollars and -4.5% in volume YTD, -2.2% in dollars and -2% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 17 Samuel Adams Boston Lager, -10.5% in dollars and -12.9% in volume YTD, -8.6% in dollars and -10.8% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 22 Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ Ale, -10.2% in dollars and -12.9% in volume YTD, -8.6% in dollars and -13.4% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 25 New Belgium Fat Tire, -28.9% in dollars and -29.8% in volume YTD, -27.5% in dollars and -28.1% in volume.

No. 18 Monster-owned Cigar City Jai Alai IPA (-1.8% in dollars, -2.3% in volume YTD) improved to -1.5% in dollars and +0.3% in volume in the L4W.

Eight of the top 30 brands’ losses accelerated from the first 11 months of the year through the L4W:

  • No. 14 New Belgium-owned Bell’s Two Hearted American IPA, -2.2% in dollars and -3.6% in volume YTD, -6% in dollars and -6.7% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 16 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force Hazy Imperial IPA, -13.3% in dollars and -14.6% in volume YTD, -31.3% in dollars and -32.6% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 21 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Variety Pack, -16.3% in dollars and -17.6% in volume YTD, -22.2% in dollars and -23.5% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 23 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA, -22% in dollars and -23.3% in volume YTD, -25.9% in dollars and -26.4% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 26 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, -12.5% in dollars and -14.9% in volume YTD, -15.1% in dollars and -16.3% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 27 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger IPA, -15.1% in dollars and -16.1% in volume YTD, -23.1% in dollars and -24.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • No. 28 Samuel Adams seasonal variety pack, -25.7% in dollars and -28.5% in volume YTD, -49.7% in dollars and -54.1% in volume in the L4W;
  • And No. 30 Bell’s Seasonal, -8.8% in dollars and -10.4% in volume YTD, and -27.3% in dollars and -27.6% in volume in the L4W.

The only new product among the top 30 craft brands with no YoY comps is No. 15 New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force Tropical IPA, which has reached $44.5 million in dollar sales in Circana-tracked MULO+C outlets and holds a 1.05% share of craft dollar sales.

Several brands appeared in the top 30 in the grocery or convenience channels without also ranking among the top 30 brands in MULO+C. In convenience stores, they include No. 21 Rhinegeist Truth IPA, No. 22 Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing Imperial IPA, No. 28 Tilray-owned 10 Barrel Pub Lager and No. 29 Fiddlehead IPA.

In grocery stores, No. 22 Sierra Nevada Seasonal, No. 27 Samuel Adams Seasonal Overlay, No. 29 Shiner Seasonal and No. 30 Goose Island IPA were among the top 30 brands, but did not crack the top 30 brands in MULO+C or convenience stores.