An estimated 11.9 million barrels of beer were shipped in February, a +7.9% increase year-over-year (YoY), marking the “strongest monthly growth in almost three years, since May 2021,” Beer Institute (BI) chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote in the trade group’s latest round of economic reports, citing estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
The increase follows a +1.8% YoY increase in January, to 11.4 million barrels, which was the first YoY increase since February 2023.
Total industry volume – domestic shipments plus imports – also grew in February, increasing +8.2% YoY. The total volume made the month the “strongest February since 2016,” Heritage wrote.
Year-to-date (YTD) domestic tax paids totaled 23.3 million barrels, a +4.9% increase versus the first two months of 2023, when domestic tax paids were down just over -1% (-253,618 barrels).
February state shipments increased +5.8% YoY, an increase of about 820,000 barrels, to more than 14.98 million barrels. YTD domestic shipments have grown +5.7% versus the same period in 2023, to more than 29.74 million barrels.
The largest states by shipment volume increased domestic shipments YoY, including Florida (+10.7%), New York (+9.1%), California (+7.8%), Ohio (+6.8%) and Texas (+4.8%).
“Those five states combined account for a million barrels of growth over the past two months,” Heritage wrote.
All five states have also grown YTD: Florida +7%, to 2.4 million barrels; New York +8.9%, to nearly 1.42 million barrels; California +10.3%, to nearly 3.27 million barrels; Ohio +7.4%, to 1.12 million barrels; Texas +11.9%, to 3.51 million barrels.
February imports increased +9% YoY and have grown +11.4% YTD, according to Heritage, citing estimates from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Mexico continues to drive imports to the U.S., with February barrelage increasing +9.9% YoY (+7.3 million barrels) and +16.9% YTD (23.5 million barrels). Irish imports also grew significantly ahead of St. Patrick’s Day, increasing +29.4% YoY (+848,192 barrels) and +29.2% YTD (+1.8 million barrels).
Heritage also highlighted significant growth in imports from Vietnam, which increased +4,700% YoY, from 3,894 barrels in February 2023, to 186,933 barrels in February 2024. The country is now the eighth largest contributor of beer imports to the U.S., with YTD imports increasing +285.4%, to 373,047 barrels.
The U.K. was the only other country in the top 10 to increase imports both YoY (+41%, to 190,793 barrels) and YTD (+8.3%, to 354,039 barrels). Imports from the Netherlands (+14.6%, to 10.86 million barrels) and Guatemala (+9.3%, to 179,522 barrels) both grew versus February 2023, but have declined YTD (-11.4% and -2.4%, respectively).
All other countries within the top 10 were in the red:
- Canada -32.8% YoY, -13.4% YTD;
- Germany -11% YoY, -36.7% YTD;
- Italy -11% YoY; -26.1% YTD;
- Belgium -41.6% YoY, -41.4% YTD.
“2024 is off to an excellent start for the beer industry as total industry supply is up 6.2% for the year,” Heritage wrote. “Brewers are reporting strong shipments growth in the first two months of the year. Wholesalers are correspondingly reporting purchasing growth. Yet beer depletions, while improved from 2023, have not grown to the same extent yet.”
“January and February are generally lower-volume months,” he continued. “We will see in the coming months if volume growth continues and if retail sales begin to grow as we move into the spring and summer selling season.”
The BI’s next round of economic reports will be released on May 3.