After a month in the black, domestic tax paid shipments of beer recorded a -4.8% year-over-year (YoY) decline in June, according to the Beer Institute (BI), which cited several government sources for its monthly report.
“The first half of 2024 closed out with a soft month of June,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote. “Total supply was down -2.6% for the month, but total volume grew slightly in the first half of the year (0.3% year-to-date).”
Domestic brewers shipped 14.4 million barrels of beer in June 2024, compared to 15.1 million barrels in June 2023, according to estimates from the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB). This decline plunged domestic shipments farther into the red at -1.9% YoY, compared to -1.4% YoY in May 2024.
“The monthly gains of 721K barrels in May were wiped out in June, with a monthly decrease of 727K,” Heritage wrote.
June marked the second-largest shipment decline of 2024, but is still dwarfed in comparison to March 2024’s -2.4 million barrel decline.
At the state level, 38 states recorded YoY volume declines in June. Washington, D.C., posted the steepest decrease at -16.1%, followed by Delaware (-15.2%), New Hampshire (-14.5%), Michigan (-14.4%), and Washington (-14.3%).
Despite these double-digit declines in June, most of these states have posted low-single-digit declines year-to-date (YTD), with the exception of Washington, D.C. Beer shipments in the nation’s capital have declined -7.5% YoY for the first half of 2024, far more than any other state.
Of the few states that posted volume increases in June, Kentucky led the way with +7.4% more shipments YoY, followed by Wyoming (+5.9%), Rhode Island (+5.8%), Utah (+5%) and Georgia (+2.2%).
“Among states that have grown volume for the year, Colorado has increased by 3.4%, Texas by 2.2%, and Nevada by 2%,” Heritage wrote.
Texas leads the way in shipments with 10.8 million barrels YTD, followed by California (9.8 million barrels), Florida (7.2 million barrels) New York (4.5 million barrels) and Illinois (3.7 million barrels).
In imports data, Mexico continues to dominate in volume, with nearly 10 times the volume of the next largest importer YTD, according to Department of Commerce data cited by the BI. For the first half of the year, Mexico has imported 560.6 million gallons, compared to No. 2 the Netherlands with 59.5 million gallons.
Mexico has posted double-digit increases for both the first half of the year (+11.1) and for June 2024 (+10.3%). Import volume from the Netherlands has declined YTD (-2%) and for June 2024 (-18.5%). No. 3 Ireland posted gains YTD (+11.4%) and for June 2024, when the country imported 1.95 million gallons, a +123.1% YoY increase.
Although overall imports have increased YoY (+6.6%) and YTD (+8.5%), June 2024’s 3.9 million imported barrels could not top the record 4.043 million barrels set in May.
Other insights from Heritage’s report:
- “Beer continues to have strong weeks around occasions, but week-to-week scans outside of typical beer occasions have lagged behind last year.
- Uncertainty about future economic conditions seems to be leading to a slight consumer spending pullback across industries.
- While volume was down in June, it is worth noting that the annual rate of decline continues to slow as the industry establishes a new baseline.”
The BI is scheduled to release the July 2024 economic report on September 4.