Beer in a ‘Cautionary Holding Pattern’ as July BPI Improves, But Remains in Contraction

Beer ordering remained in contraction in July, according to the latest Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) from the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA).

Total beer and all but one beer segment were in contraction in July, according to the survey, which asks wholesalers if they are ordering more or less product each month compared to the month before.

As a reminder, a BPI reading above 50 indicates a segment is in expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Total beer posted a reading of 42, closer to expansion territory compared to June, which had a BPI of 30. However, the latest figure is 17 points below what the industry posted in July 2024.

Recall, a year ago, beer was in its fifth month of expansion, with a BPI reading of 59. In the same report, four of the seven observed segments were in expansion territory and six had improved their readings compared to July 2023.

“The combination of index readings for at-risk inventory (43) and BPI (42) places the industry firmly in a cautionary holding pattern for the summer,” NBWA chief economist and VP of analytics Lester Jones wrote in the latest report.

The largest year-over-year gap came from premium lights, which fell from 63 in July 2024, to 38 in the latest month. The segment was also five points below its June 2025 reading.

Imports was the only segment in expansion territory, with a reading of 50. The segment had been in contraction for the two months prior, making its “first two-month contractionary streak since the BPI launched in 2015,” Jones noted.

After imports, the below premium segment had the next highest BPI reading (48), falling three points since June. The segment’s latest reading was also 14 points below its July 2024 BPI.

Hard cider was the only segment to improve its BPI reading compared to 2024, rising from 36 to 38. The segment also improved compared to June (+5 points).

The remaining segments posted the following July readings:

  • Craft (25), 10 points above June 2025 and five points below July 2024;
  • Premium regular (41), 10 points above last month and 17 points below last year;
  • Below premium (48), three points above last month and 14 points below last year;
  • And flavored malt beverages (FMB) and hard seltzer (39), seven points below last month and flat compared to last year.

Note, while craft remains in contraction, July marked the segment’s highest BPI reading so far in 2025.