The story of slowed import sales and the impact of Hispanic consumer shifts, is not a story unique to beer, according to the latest monthly report from Bump Williams of Bump Williams Consulting (BWC).
Total bev-alc (TBA) imports have declined 0.5% year-to-date (YTD), to nearly $11 billion, in NIQ-tracked, off-premise channels (total U.S. + liquor + convenience). In the same period last year, bev-alc imports were growing 1.3%, to $11.05 billion.
The dip has a significant impact on bev-alc, as the segment accounts for 35% of total bev-alc dollar sales YTD. Within categories, that share is even higher, particularly in spirits, where imports claim 43.4% share of YTD dollar sales.
Imported spirits dollar sales have declined 1.2% YTD, accelerating declines from the same period in 2024 (-0.6%). The segment has also lost 0.3 points of share of spirits dollar sales.
The most drastic shift in performance year-over-year (YoY) is within beer, where imports are still in the black (dollar sales +0.9% YTD), but slowed significantly versus the 4.8% growth it was recording at this time in 2024. However, the segment has still gained share of total beer dollar sales as the broader category has also struggled, increasing share from 35.9%, to 36.4%.
Wine import dollar sales have declined 1.3% YTD (-0.7% this time in 2024), while share has slipped slightly from 20.4%, to 20.2%.
“I will state the obvious by saying that a continued downturn for TBA Imports in the weeks and months ahead would seal the fate of TBA sales and result in it failing to grow this year,” Bump wrote.
10 of Top 15 Import Segments Have Decelerated YTD Trends vs. 2024
Mexico is the largest contributor of not just beer imports, but TBA imports, contributing nearly $4.95 billion in sales YTD, quadruple the dollar sales of No. 2 contributor, France ($1.08 billion). Mexico’s share is also growing, contributing 45% of YTD TBA import dollars, versus 43.1% in the same period in 2023.
Mexico is also the only country within the top 10 import countries – which account for 90% of TBA import dollars – to record YTD dollar sales growth (+4%). However, growth has slowed, with the segment increasing dollar sales 6.8% YTD in the same period in 2024.
Among the other nine countries within the top 10, six have also recorded softer sales trends this year compared to 2024, including:
- No. 3 Canada, dollar sales -3.4%, with 9.1% share of TBA import dollar sales (2024 dollar sales +1.8%, with 9.4% share);
- No. 4 Italy, dollar sales -3.5%, with 8.7% share (2024 dollar sales -0.9%, with 8.9% share);
- No. 7 Netherlands, dollar sales -4.9%, with 3.7% share (2024 dollar sales -3.4%, with 4.1% share);
- No. 8 New Zealand, dollar sales -0.5%, with 2.25% share (2024 dollar sales +0.4%, with 2.2% share);
- No. 9 Australia, dollar sales -11.5%, with 1.7% share (2024 dollar sales -7.6%, with 1.9% share);
- No. 10 Chile, dollar sales -4.1%, with 1.2% share (2024 dollar sales +2.1%, with 1.3% share).
Those with improved trends include:
- No. 2 France, dollar sales -5.8%, with 9.8% share (2024 dollar sales -6.8%, with 10.4% share);
- No. 5 Scotland, dollar sales -5.7%, with 4.2% share (2024 dollar sales -6.4%, with 4.5% share);
- No. 6 Ireland, dollar sales -2.2%, with 4% share (2024 dollar sales -3.4%, with 4.1% share).
When analyzing the top 15 import segments by country (e.g. Mexican beer or Italian wine), three have both recorded dollar sales growth YTD, and improved trends versus 2024, including:
- No. 2 Mexican spirits (15% share of TBA imports), dollar sales +8.3% YTD versus +6.8% in the same period in 2024;
- No. 7 French wine (3.8% share), dollar sales +3.1% versus -1.6% in 2024;
- And No. 14 Irish beer (1.1% share), dollar sales +3% versus +2.5% in 2024.
As reported throughout Q1, Mexican beer imports – which have a 29.5% share of TBA import dollar sales YTD – have recorded a significant slowdown versus recent historical trends, with dollar sales increasing 1.3% YTD, versus +6.1% in the same period in 2024.
Shifts at retail ahead of one of Mexican beer’s largest holidays, Cinco de Mayo (May 5), suggest that that slowdown isn’t going away anytime soon, according to Bump and his observations from retailer visits and conversations.
Bump noted seeing more TBA displays this year than in previous years, and while there is a slight boost in Mexican import displays versus the rest of the year, the increase is “smaller than last year.”
“Perhaps it’s because of distributors trying to better manage their warehouse inventories in anticipation of potential supply issues and/or tariff impact on pricing and availability,” Williams wrote.
Williams also noted that retailers are “spreading the wealth in terms of merchandising to capture all beverage-alcohol/beverage consumers,” likely a result of shifts among Hispanic consumers, who have cut back on their bev-alc spending and social gatherings in response to President Trump’s immigration practices.
Segments gaining space include spirits- and wine-based ready-to-drink (RTD) bev-alc, which Williams suggested are taking space away from traditional beer “due to [a] decrease in purchase rates of beer.”
“On a more alarming note, I saw a lot more non-alcoholic beverage product on the floor than what I have in the past – probiotics, energy, protein, hydration, vitamin, RTD tea/coffee, water, iced tea and straight-up juices,” Williams wrote.
“And this one pains me to say – where legal, I saw a lot of THC Beverage products in the front of liquor/convenience/independent stores. My crystal ball is a bit foggy, but it’s looking to be a summer of non-alcoholic beverages at the expense of traditional beverage-alcohol and that ain’t good.”
Top Import Vendors Record Largest YoY Shifts
The top 15 TBA import vendors account for 74% of YTD import dollar sales, according to Williams. Among that 15, only five have improved dollar sales trends versus YTD sales trends in 2024, and two have increased dollar sales YTD.
- No. 4 Pernod Ricard (4.4% share of TBA import dollars), dollar sales -3.7% YTD versus -6% in 2024;
- No. 5 Sazerac (4.1% share), dollar sales -0.8% versus -2.9% in 2024;
- No. 6 Moet-Hennessy (4% share), dollar sales -4.2% versus -6.8% in 2024;
- No. 7 Proximo Spirits (3.4% share), dollar sales +1.2% versus +0.7% in 2024;
- And No. 11 Heaven Hill (1.2% share), dollar sales +24.6% versus +11.5% in 2024.
The top three TBA import vendors – Constellation Brands, Diageo and Heineken – account for 46.2% of YTD import dollar sales, and all three have recorded slowed trends this year:
- Constellation (28.5% share) dollar sales +1.7% versus +6% in 2024;
- Diageo (13.1% share) dollar sales +0.4% versus +3.8% in 2024;
- And Heineken (4.6% share) dollar sales -5.8% versus -2.6% in 2024.
Constellation Brands owns the top two TBA import brands by YTD dollar sales, No. 1 Modelo and No. 2 Corona. Modelo, which holds 15.8% of TBA import dollars, has recorded a significant slowdown in dollar sales trends, which are just above flat YTD (+0.9%), but were in the double-digits this time in 2024 (+11.1%).
Meanwhile, Corona’s trends have improved slightly, from -2.3% in 2024, to -0.9% now.