Sales velocities at bars and restaurants have more than tripled year-over-year (+325%) now that the calendar is cycling the strictest lockdown period in 2020, according to Nielsen CGA, market research firm NielsenIQ’s on-premise arm.
“Across all states, value velocity remains strongly positive compared to last year, when on-premise decline was at its height,” Nielsen CGA reported.
However, sales velocity declines in some cities added up to a 2% average decline nationwide for the week ending April 3 compared to the week ending March 27.
“Nearly all of the states experienced week-on-week declines at the weekend vs. the previous week,” Nielsen CGA reported. “However, strong performances are experienced during weekdays, with all states up on both Wednesday and Thursday vs. the previous week.”
In New York, a sales decline of 7% in New York City drove an average statewide decline of 4% for the week ending April 3 compared to the prior week. Compared to the week ending April 4, 2020, New York state sales velocity increased 283%.
Velocity declines in Dallas (-4%), Houston (-8%) and Austin (-3%) contributed to a statewide 4% decline in Texas, breaking the Lone Star State’s five-week record of positive sales trends following Gov. Greg Abbott’s lifting of all on-premise restrictions and the state’s mask mandate on March 10. Statewide, Texas on-premise sales velocity increased 258% compared to the week ending April 4, 2020.
In Illinois, sales velocity was roughly the same in Chicago as it was elsewhere in the state, leading to a 1% decline for the week ending April 3 compared to the week ending March 27. On-premise sales in Illinois increased 308% compared to the week ending April 4, 2020.
Only two of the five states Nielsen CGA has been highlighting had positive week-over-week trends for the week ending April 3. In Florida, sales velocity increased 1% week-over-week, with only Tampa (-2%) posting a decline; Orlando (+4%) and Miami (+2%) both posted positive trends.
“Florida remains the strongest state of those analyzed benchmarked against March 28, 2020, with velocity up 473%,” Nielsen CGA reported.
California posted the second highest growth (+369%) when compared to the week ending April 4, 2020. Within the state, San Diego (+4%) saw sales velocity growth, while San Francisco was flat and Los Angeles declined slightly for the week ending April 3 compared to the prior week. This added up to an average statewide sales velocity increase of 2%, the state’s fifth consecutive week without decline, NielsenCGA said.
Nationwide for the week ending April 3, on-premise value velocity surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the first week of 2021. The average check value also nearly doubled, compared to the week of March 28, 2020.
All 50 states have allowed restaurants to open for indoor dining, but 66% of states have capacity measures in place. The same percentage have allowed bars to reopen for indoor service with capacity measures, but bars in 30% of states are permitted to be open with no restrictions. California and Louisiana have limited bar service to outdoors only.
BeerBoard: Draft Volume Declines 5.4% Nationwide
Draft volume at on-premise retailers tracked by BeerBoard declined 5.4% during the April 8-11 period compared to March 25-28.
The Syracuse, New York-based draft-focused market research firm reported that New York posted the highest decline of 18.1%, followed by Michigan at 16.4%. None of the markets BeerBoard tracked recorded draft volume sales growth during April 8-11 compared to March 25-28, which included the second weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, typically a large driver of on-premise traffic.
Two markets — Georgia (+5.5) and South Carolina (+1.8%) — posted positive rate of sale trends. Nationwide rate of sale declined 5.1% compared to the March 25-28 period.
The rate of on-premise locations open and serving draft beer has remained steady at 92% since late February.