The unpredictability of weekly bev-alc scans continues to give the industry whiplash.
The beer category recorded a -2.7% year-over-year (YoY) dip in dollar sales and 4.3% decline in volume for the week ending August 17, according to the latest report from Circana and the market research firm’s EVP of BevAl, Scott Scanlon.
The latest figures marked a significant decline compared to trends from the previous week (dollar sales -0.9%, volume -2.6%, week-ending August 10) but remained slightly improved compared to the week before (dollar sales -2.9%, volume -4.5%, week-ending August 3).
Total bev-alc dollar sales declined 2.1% YoY, while volume fell 3.6% in the latest week, with declines accelerating compared to the relatively flat previous week (dollar sales -0.3% YoY, -0.7% WoW, week-ending August 10).
Wine continued to lead declines, with dollar sales declining 5.5% and volume down 6.6%. The category’s YoY losses were accelerated compared to the previous week (dollar sales -4.1%, volume -5.2%).
Spirits remained in the black, but recorded slowed growth, with dollar sales increasing 3.9% and volume improving 12.2% (previous week dollar sales +6.3%, volume +14.7%).
Spirits-, wine- and beer-based ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs) continued to post dollar sales growth (+4.1%), while volume fell 0.3%, following growth in both dollar sales (+6.2%) and volume (+1.2%) in the previous week.
“Upcoming, the data choppiness will likely remain until the expected surge associated with the Labor Day holiday,” Scanlon wrote.
Non-alcoholic adult beverages (ANA) bucked overall trends, posting consistent or improved dollar sales growth over the past three periods: +19.9% YoY week-ending August 3; +26.4% week-ending August 10; +26.5% week-ending August 17.
Other bright spots include hard cider, which led YoY dollar sales growth in the beer category, followed by domestic super premium (+4%), Scanlon wrote.
Looking ahead to September 1, Scanlon predicts Labor Day “outperformance[s]” this year to include:
- Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Michelob Ultra, dollar sales +4.3%, volume +3.6% in the latest week (decelerating from the prior week’s trends of dollar sales +5.2%, volume +4.1%);
- Constellation Brands’ Pacifico, dollar sales +16%, volume +12.5%, (decelerating from dollar sales +20%, volume +15.3%);
- And NA-maker Athletic, dollar sales +22.6%, volume +24% (accelerating from dollar sales +19.1%, volume +18.7%).
Brands in decline but likely to reverse trends over the upcoming holiday include:
- Constellation Brands’ Modelo, dollar sales -3.7%, volume -5.6% (previous week dollar sales -1%, volume -3.3%);
- Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw, dollar sales +0.1%, volume -2.4% (previous week dollar sales +1.2%, volume -1.8%);
- And Mark Anthony Brands’ Mike’s Harder, dollar sales -2.2%, volume -4.6% (previous week dollar sales +0.9%, volume -1.2%).
“If previous holiday trend[s] remains intact, the spirits canned cocktails are likely to be the big winners in just a couple of weeks now,” Scanlon added.
Top spirits-based RTD performances in the latest week include:
- Gallo’s High Noon, dollar sales +5%, volume +5.3% (previous week dollar sales +7.5%, volume +7.2%);
- Sazerac’s BuzzBallz, dollar sales +69.7%, volume +75.7% (previous week dollar sales +74.5%, volume +81.8%);
- BeatBox, dollar sales +14.1%, volume +11.8% (previous week dollar sales +21.1%, volume +18.2%);
- A-B’s Cutwater Spirits, dollar sales +86.9%, volume +93.1% (previous week dollar sales +88.9%, volume +94.5%);
- A-B’s Nütrl, dollar sales +20.8%, volume +18% (previous week dollar sales +21.6%, volume +19.3%);
- Stateside’s Surfside, dollar sales +368.7%, volume +385% (previous week dollar sales +451.9%, volume +467.1%);
- And Boston Beer Company’s Sun Cruiser, dollar sales +441.7%, volume +475.3% (previous week dollar sales +472.3%, volume +507.3%).