Bump Williams: New Belgium, Firestone Walker Only Top 15 Craft Suppliers to Post Portfolio Dollar Sales Growth Versus 2020

Midway through 2021, just two of the top 15 craft beer suppliers have been able to generate off-premise dollar sales growth in NielsenIQ tracked channels compared to a year ago, according to Bump Williams Consulting’s latest analysis of the craft segment.

Those two craft suppliers: red-hot, Lion Little World Beverage-owned New Belgium Brewing Company, driven by the Voodoo Ranger franchise, and Duvel Moortgat’s Firestone Walker.

Portfolio-wide New Belgium sales are up nearly 15%, while Firestone Walker is up nearly 4% so far this year.

New Belgium leads the list of top 10 growth leaders in craft, followed by non-alcoholic beer maker Athletic Brewing, Anheuser-Busch InBev-owned Wicked Weed, Lawson’s Finest Liquids, Georgetown Brewing, Firestone Walker, pFriem Family Brewers, Deschutes-owned Boneyard Beer, Great Lakes Brewing Company, and Fiddlehead Brewing.

“Most of the top growth suppliers to date are regional/local players (CWD <10%), steadily picking up CWD [category weight of distribution] within their isolated footprints,” Williams wrote.

New Belgium also holds the top two growth brands (Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA and Voodoo Ranger Hoppy pack), followed by Blue Moon Light Sky, Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing IPA, Firestone Walker 805 Cerveza, New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze, Lagunitas Hazy Wonder IPA, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA, Athletic Brewing Run Wild IPA, and Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA.

Sierra Nevada Big Little Thing and Firestone Walker’s 805 Cerveza are also leading the way in new craft brand sales. Notably, three non-alcoholic craft beers cracked the list of new craft brand sales, including Lagunitas IPNA at No. 5, Samuel Adams Just the Haze IPA at No. 15, and Athletic Free Wave Hazy IPA at No. 18.

Overall, off-premise craft dollar sales are down about 5% in all off-premise outlets year-to-date through July 10, compared to a year ago, Williams shared. First quarter sales were up +7.5%, while second quarter sales declined -13.5% in the face of tough comps and a reopened on-premise channel. Dollar sales topped $2.9 billion thus far, making it the third largest beer category segment, trailing domestic premium and imports.

Craft’s off-premise declines have outpaced the overall beer category (-1.6% year-to-date). Yet craft’s year-over-year slip into the red wasn’t unexpected, and the segment is still “generally” outperforming 2019 comps, Williams wrote.

Brewers Association chief economist Bart Watson has also stressed that the negative off-premise scans may not be a bad sign, as craft over-indexes in the on-premise, and draft business is coming back.

National Beer Wholesalers Association chief economist Lester Jones also reported last week during a Fintech webinar that between weeks 21 and 27 this year that “all other” brands outside of the large macro and import brands had claimed the majority of the draft share (56%), citing Fintech InfoSource data. That marked a 16% increase compared to the first 20 weeks of the year, when “all others” had 40% of the draft share.

On closer examination, Williams found that the “sharpest declines” have been with mainstream craft brands, which have collectively declined -11% in off-premise dollar sales versus a year ago.

Meanwhile, regional (-5.7%) and local (-4.5%) craft brands are posting similar year-over-year declines, while national brands (-1.8%) have fared the best, Williams wrote.

Looking at styles, hazy (7.8% share, +1.5%) and imperial (7.5% share, +1%) IPAs continue to be the share winners within craft and rank as the top two growth styles, Williams reported.

Hazy IPA off-premise dollars sales have increased +17.4%, to $230.1 million, while imperial IPAs have increased 10.6%, to more than $219.3 million.

IPA off-premise dollar sales have declined -7.4%, to nearly $775.2 million. Nevertheless, IPA holds 26.3% share of craft sales, by far the most of any craft style, despite declining -0.7% share.

Low- and non-alcoholic craft beer ranked as the No. 3 growth style based on year-over year incremental dollar sales growth, driven by existing brands and innovation in the segment.

The average price paid per case equivalent of craft has increased about 2% through early July, to $38.36, after being roughly flat in 2020 at $37.94, Williams wrote. The average price per unit  — the average package level costs, such as 6-pack cans, 6-pack bottles, 4-pack cans, etc. — has also increased this year to ($9.49) compared to $9.41 in 2020, $9.09 in 2019, and $9.06 in 2018.

Finally, the move to aluminum cans continues to trend up, increasing +5% in dollar sales compared to a year ago. Cans hold a 57.9% dollar share of craft, followed by 42% share for bottles, which have declined in dollar sales by nearly -16%, Williams found.

The No. 1 packaging format in craft is now 6-pack cans (25.7% share), usurping 6-pack bottles (24.5% share).