Bump Williams Consulting: High ABV Still A Growth Opportunity for Beer; Wine and Spirits Chipping at Share

Non-alcoholic beer continues to be one of a handful of beer segments to record growth in scans. However, beer is also finding growth at the other end of the ABV spectrum, and was the subject of the latest report from Bump Williams Consulting (BWC).

The “bifurcation” of beer – with growth coming from both low/no-alcohol beer and high ABV offerings – has sustained through 2024, highlighting the continued importance of alcohol content to consumer purchasing decisions, Bump Williams wrote.

In NIQ-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. xAOC + liquor open state + convenience), low- and no-alcohol beer (0% to 3.9% ABV) have increased dollar sales +6% year-to-date (YTD), through October 12. At the same time, high ABV beers (8% ABV or more), have increased dollar sales +7.4%.

Beer’s losses are coming from middle-range ABV offerings, which make up a majority of beer dollar sales, but recorded a -1.8% decline in dollars YTD. Middle-ABV beers (5% to 7.9% ABV) also lost 1.7% of share of total beer dollars since 2022. Meanwhile, low- and no-alcohol beers have increased share from 3.1% to 3.8% in the period, and high ABV beers from 6% to 7%.

Williams focused the majority of his latest report on the high ABV bev-alc landscape, writing: “In an industry challenged for growth, it’s astonishing how high ABV beer flies under the radar and seemingly fails to receive much attention despite the ‘sneaky’ sales growth it continues to generate.”

High ABV beers have recorded $3.2 billion in off-premise dollar sales YTD, an increase of $217.9 million.

“For perspective, this is bigger than the entire hard seltzer segment,” Williams wrote.

The high ABV beer segment is also 1.8 times larger than the low- and no-alcohol segment, which has recorded $1.8 billion in off-premise sales YTD, an increase of $100.4 million.

“Yet, ironically, there doesn’t seem to be as much industry buzz about high ABV beer’s sales and growth contributions at this collective level,” Williams wrote.

FMBs and Craft Dominant High ABV

Nearly three-quarters of high ABV dollar sales YTD (74.7%) come from offerings in the flavored malt beverage (FMB) and craft beer segments, according to Willians. FMBs have the dominant share, at 43.5%, down from 44.4% in 2022. Craft has 31.2% share, down from 32% in 2022.

A growing segment for high ABV beer is “flavored beer,” which includes FMBs, hard seltzer and hard cider, according to Williams. The three segments have a collective 55.9% share of high ABV beer dollar sales YTD, up from 53.4% in 2022. Hard seltzer (9.8%) and hard cider (2.6%) have gained the most share since 2022 compared to all beer segments (+2.2 points and +1.2 points, respectively).

Other measured segments participating in high ABV include malt liquor (7.7% share, down from 9.1% in 2022); domestic value (4%, flat); and imports (1.2%, down from 1.6%).

Nearly two-thirds of high ABV beer dollar sales (65%) come from single-serve cans, and that share continues to grow (+0.3 points YTD), according to Williams. Twenty-four and 25 oz. cans hold the majority share (31%), followed by 19.2 oz. cans (13.1%) and 16 oz. cans (11.6%). Twelve oz. 12-packs have the largest share amongst multipacks (8.9%), followed by 12 oz. can 6-packs (8.6%). All other packages hold a 26.8% share.

Additionally, cans have a collective 80% share of high ABV beer dollars, “with the roll of bottles dwindling as the landscape evolves,” Williams wrote.

That majority of high ABV beers at 8% ABV (58.2% of beer dollar sales YTD), while 9% ABV offerings are the fastest growing ABV percentage YTD (19.5% share). Ten percent ABV has the next largest share (7%), followed by 12% ABV (4.8%). All other high ABVs have a collective 10.6% share.

A Top-Heavy Segment

Nearly 1,000 vendors are competing in the high ABV beer segment, according to YTD scan data. However, the bulk of dollar sales (71%) come from top 10 vendors, according to Williams.

Mark Anthony Brands has the majority share of the segment (21%), and continues to grow share (+0.3 points YTD). The company has recorded $663 million in off-premise dollar sales YTD (+8.9%). Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B) has the second largest share (13%), but is losing share (-0.8 points YTD). The company has recorded $409.5 million in off-premise high ABV beer sales YTD (+1.5%).

Within the top 10, No. 3 Lion Little World Beverages (New Belgium, Bell’s) and No. 9 Boston Beer Company have increased share the most YTD (+1.3 points, to 11.3% and +1.5 points, to 2.6%, respectively). Boosted by extensions of New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger brand, Lion has increased high ABV beer dollar sales +21.3%, to $355.6 million YTD. Boston Beer has added high ABV extensions to Truly Hard Seltzer (Truly Unruly) and Twisted Tea (Twisted Tea Extreme) to increase dollar sales +143.4%, to $82 million.

Meanwhile, No. 4 Molson Coors has lost the most share (-1 point, to 8.6%). The company’s high ABV dollar sales have declined -3.8% YTD, to $198.3%.

The rest of the top 10 includes:

No. 5 Geloso Beverage, 6.7% share (flat YTD), $211.7 million in dollar sales (+7.8%);
No. 6 Phusion Projects, 6.3% share (-0.2 points), $198.3 million (+3.3%);
No. 7 Diageo, 4.3% share (flat), $137.2 million (+71.% YTD);
No. 8 Sazerac, 3.8% share (-0.2 points), $118.9 million (+2.4% YTD);
No. 10 Artisanal Brewing Ventures (ABV), 1.7% share (-0.4 points), $52.2 million (-11.6%).

Among brand families, Mark Anthony Brands’ Mike’s Hard is the largest by YTD dollar sales ($397.5 million, -0.8% YTD). Its sibling brand No. 3 White Claw Hard Seltzer has recorded one of the largest increases in high ABV dollar sales YTD (+31.1%, to $232.6 million), along with hard seltzer competitor Boston Beer Company’s Truly, the 14th largest high ABV brand family, with dollar sales increasing +366.8% YTD, to $43 million.

Other top 15 brand families in the segment include:

No. 2 New Belgium (+21%, to $352.2 million);
No. 4 Molson Coors’ Steel Reserve (-4.8%, to $209.1 million);
No. 5 Phusion Project’s Four Loko (+3.7%, to$178.7 million);
No. 6 Geloso’s Clubtails (+12.5%, to $149.6 million);
No. 7 Diageo’s Smirnoff (+5%, to $134.3 million);
No. 8 A-B’s Natural (+1.4%, to $103.8 million);
No. 9 Sazaerac’s Fireball (-5.1%, to $86.4 million);
No. 10 A-B’s Ritas (+1.3%, to $84.5 million);
No. 11 A-B’s Hurricane (+1.3%, to $69.2 million);
No. 12 A-B’s Elysian (-1.4%, to $68.2 million);
No. 13 Daniel L. Jacob & Co.’s Johny Bootlegger (-2.2%, to $62.1 million);
No. 15 Molson Coors’ Redd’s (-10.1%, to $42.7 million).

“Between both cuts of the hierarchy, there is more growth evident among the leaders (8 of 10 vendors, 9 of 15 B[rand] F[amilie]s) than there is decline, a sign that there is clear consumer demand for a variety of High ABV products to capitalize on,” Williams wrote.

Wine- and Spirits-Based RTDs Taking Share of High ABV from Beer

If you include ready-to-drink (RTD) and ready-to-serve (RTS) high ABV wine- and spirits-based products, total high ABV dollar sales increase from $3.2 billion, to $4.8 billion YTD.

“Beer still makes up the majority with a 65% share of total high ABV dollars, but it has lost -3.6 points since 2022 to the rapid rise of high ABV wine RTD/RTS,” Williams wrote.

Spirits-based RTDs have the second largest share of high ABV bev-alc behind beer (21.2%0, followed by wine-based offerings (+13.3%). Meanwhile, wine has recorded the largest dollar sales growth in the segment YTD (+35.9%), followed by spirits (+9.8%) and beer (+7.4%).

“It’s clear that the wine and spirits vendors are intent on winning their fair share in this growth segment,” Williams wrote.

When including wine- and spirits-based offerings, Sazerac moves up the ranks among top 10 high ABV vendors, from No. 7 to No. 3, with dollar sales increasing from $118.9 million, to $569 million. A-B’s dollar sales also increase significantly, from $409.5 million, to $592 million, “closing the gap to Mark Anthony.”

New additions to the top vendors list when including wine and spirits include No. 6 BeatBox Beverages ($216.4 million in dollar sales YTD) and No. 10 Proximo Spirits ($154.2 million YTD), knocking off Boston Beer and ABV.

Amongst top 15 brand families, BuzzBallz (recently acquired by Sazerax) becomes the second largest, with $356.6 million in dollar sales YTD. BeatBox ranks No. 5 ($216.4 million in dollar sales YTD).

Other additions to the top 15 list include: