Brewers Association-defined craft beer recorded a -4% decline in packaged volume in 2024, BA staff economist Matt Gacioch reported this week in the trade group’s annual packaging report.
NIQ-tracked craft – which includes breweries such as Kirin-owned New Belgium, which no longer fits in the BA’s definition of small and independent craft breweries – recorded a slightly steeper decline of -4.2% in off-premise channels, Gacioch shared.
Both craft groups’ losses were greater than total beer, which recorded a -3.1% decline in off-premise volume in 2024. The declines are also at the lowest end of the BA’s previously shared estimates for total craft declines, which Gacioch and BA president and CEO Bart Watson estimated to be between -2% and -4% during a December webinar.
Between 2021 and 2024, BA-defined off-premise craft beer volume declined -18%. However, Gacioch highlighted that “2021 was a high water mark due to the shift in purchasing behavior in the [COVID-19] pandemic,” which shut down many on-premise establishments and drove consumers to buy more packaged products.
The largest declines in the 2021-2024 period occurred in drug stores (volume -48%), followed by open state liquor stores (-25%), convenience stores (-16%) and grocery (-15%).
While liquor stores did not have the largest percentage decline in volume, the channel is “likely one of the primary pain points for craft brewers, as liquor stores used to be one of the easiest points of entry for small and independent producers getting into distribution,” Gacioch wrote.
Some of the channel shifts are due to regulatory changes in some states, including Colorado, where beer can now be sold in grocery stores, “reducing visits to liquor stores as consumers purchase their beer in the same place as their food,” Gacioch added.
Meanwhile, BA-defined craft off-premise dollar sales declined -2.4% in 2024, according to the report. The gap between volume and dollar sales declines suggest that “prices are going up over time as volumes are decreasing, bridging some of that gap,” Gacioch wrote.
The average price per case of BA-defined craft increased +2.5% between 2021 and 2024, while the price of NIQ-tracked craft increased +2.6% in the period.
“Let’s not ignore the fact that some of the volume decline could be driven by the increase in price,” Gacioch wrote.
While total NIQ-tracked craft took slightly more price than BA-defined craft beer in the period, “that wasn’t uniformly the case for all unit sizes,” he added. Price increases for BA-defined craft outpaced NIQ-tracked craft for 12-packs and single-serve offerings.
“It’s worth remembering that these unit sizes are dwarfed in sales volume by the 6-pack, but the highest price growth rate was in the most economical 12-pack,” Gacioch wrote.
Twelve-packs of BA-defined craft beer recorded a +3% price increase in the period.
“One other interesting takeaway was that in 2021, the average case price for singles was higher than 4-packs, which would be expected based on volume discounts,” Gacioch wrote. “However, in 2022 to 2024, the average case price of 4-packs was higher than the singles, flipping that volume discount on its head.”
Single-Serve Cans A Growth Outlier
Cans now account for 73.8% of NIQ-tracked packaged craft beer volume, a +3.2 percentage points increase versus 2023, Gacioch reported. Cans have been steadily increasing share of packaged craft beer volume between three and four percentage points every year since 2021, when cans accounted for 62.8% share of packaged craft volume. Meanwhile, bottle share declined from 37.2%, to 26.2% in the same period.
“Understanding that it becomes increasingly difficult for aluminum to capture more share as it reaches such heights, even a slowing of share gain (which could be starting to happen) leaves cans the dominant container type into the foreseeable future,” Gacioch wrote.
In “non-craft beer,” cans accounted for 71% volume share in 2024, up slightly from 69% in 2021, while bottle share has declined from 31%, to 29%, suggesting “craft is moving more rapidly towards cans than beer overall.”
Craft’s continued reliance on cans raises concerns around increased aluminum prices due to tariffs. Last week (March 12), President Donald Trump enacted 25% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imports. No countries are exempt from the tariffs, meaning the price of aluminum will “likely increase” the BA shared earlier this month.
“To drive this growth in cans, brewers across the country have invested significantly in aluminum packaging equipment over the past few decades,” Gacioch wrote in the most recent report. “Obviously, brewers can’t switch package types on a dime, so I expect this is driving much of the anxiety around the aluminum tariff conversation.”
Four “unit sizes” made up nearly all of BA-defined packaged craft beer volume in 2024 (96%), Gacioch reported:
- 1-packs or single-serve (8% share, +2 percentage points versus 2021);
- 4-packs (11% share, flat versus 2021);
- 6-packs (46% share, -3 percentage points versus 2021);
- And 12-packs (31% share, +2 percentage points versus 2021).
Single-serve packages were the only unit of the four to increase both volume and share in 2024, according to Gacioch. The largest year-over-year (YoY) volume decline was recorded by 4-packs (-8%), which also recorded a -0.5 percentage point decline in volume share, followed by 6-packs (volume -5% YoY, share -0.4 percentage points). Twelve-packs recorded slight share gain and volume decline.
The growth of single-serve offerings was primarily due to 19.2 oz. cans, which accounted for more than half (54%) of BA-defined single-serve craft beer volume in 2024, a +6.6 percentage point increase YoY. The package format had an even larger share of NIQ-tracked single-serve craft beer volume (72%), in part due to the inclusion of New Belgium and its Voodoo Ranger brand.
IPA was the dominant style for 19.2 oz cans of BA-defined craft, accounting for 86% of the package format’s volume last year. Imperial/double/triple IPA has the most momentum in the package format, increasing share from 30% in 2021, to 35% in 2024. Other volume gainers of note include American pale ale, extra pale ale, pilsner and sour, Gacioch wrote.
Beyond 19.2 oz. cans, all other single-serve packaged offerings of BA-defined craft beer were in decline in 2024, including “the once-mighty 22 oz. package,” which now accounts for just 1% of BA-defined craft single-serve volume, a -0.6 percentage point decline YoY.
“I suppose you could say the bomber is bombing,” Gacioch wrote.
Single-serve craft offerings were also the only package format to increase volume in nearly every off-premise channel in 2024, with the exception of open state liquor, where the package unit was flat. The largest volume growth was recorded in grocery (+6%), followed by total U.S. xAOC (+5%) and c-stores (+3%).
“With a consumer shift to the food channel comes a consumer shift to purchasing for occasions, and it seems as though the occasions are meant to be enjoyed 19.2 ounces at a time,” Gacioch wrote.
The largest craft volume declines across off-premise channels came from 6-packs, predominantly in liquor stores (-9% YoY), followed by c-stores (-8%).