Wholesalers continue to show caution in their beer ordering, according to the latest Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) from the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA).
A BPI reading above 50 indicates a segment is expanding, while a BPI reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Total beer recorded a BPI reading of 31 in September, marking the second consecutive month of beer ordering contraction after five consecutive months of expansion. The latest BPI was also the third consecutive September in which total beer had a reading below 50.
“After a summer of heightened ordering levels, the combination of index readings for at-risk inventory (47) and BPI (31) reflects a more cautious outlook among distributors as they head into the fall months,” NBWA VP of analytics and chief economist Lester Jones wrote.
While September contraction is now a three-year trend, the September 2024 reading was also 14 points below total beer’s September 2023 reading of 45.
All beer segments recorded a decline in BPI reading’s year-over-year (YoY), except for flavored malt beverages (FMBs)/hard seltzer, which posted a reading of 38, a 10 point increase YoY despite still being in contraction.
Nearly all segments were also in contraction except for imports, which posted a reading of 53. While still in expansion, the segment’s September BPI reading declined nine points YoY. Still, imports have now recorded 52 consecutive months with a BPI reading above 50.
Craft ordering contracted the most, with a reading of 21, six points below its September 2023 reading of 27. Craft’s BPI reading also declined two points versus August 2024, when it recorded a reading of 23, 12 points below its August 2023 reading of 35.
Hard cider had the next lowest reading (27, eight points below September 2023’s index of 35), followed by premium regular (30, down from 40 in 2023), below premium (35, down from 42) and premium lights (38, down from 47).
Of those four segments, three also recorded declines versus August BPI readings:
- Hard cider -3 points, with an August reading of 30;
- Premium regular -9 points, with an August reading of 39;
- Below premium -10 points, with an August reading of 45.
Premium lights’ BPI reading remained unchanged from last month’s 38