November domestic tax paid shipments from U.S. brewers were down -6.8% year-over-year (YoY), to an estimated 10.95 million barrels, according to the Beer Institute (BI) in its latest round of economic reports.
November marks the ninth consecutive month of YoY declines. However, the month’s losses were less than the previous two months’ declines: September -11.4% and October -10.8%.
Domestic tax paids are now down -6.9% year-to-date (YTD), to more than 139.69 million barrels, marking a loss of 10.37 million barrels versus the first 11 months of 2022.
“2023 was a year of transition as supply chains normalized and prices began to moderate after several years of increases,” BI chief economist Andrew Heritage wrote in the report. “While November had a decline in volume compared to the previous year, the monthly decrease was on trend for the year which suggests the worst is behind us.”
November state shipments declined -3.3% YoY, to nearly 15.1 million barrels. Five states increased shipments YoY, including Texas, the No. 1 state by volume, which increased shipments +0.6% YoY. Other states include Michigan (+1.3%), New Jersey (+12.3%), North Carolina (+1.4%) and Washington, D.C. (+3.6%).
All other states recorded declines, except for Maine, which was flat. High-volume states Florida (-8%), Illinois (-4.8%) and Ohio (-7.8%) each recorded declines larger than the national trend. California (-0.5%) and New York (-1.4%) were also in decline, but improved versus the previous month’s declines (-8.8% and -6.7%, respectively).
Total state shipments are down -4.2% YTD, to 177.6 million barrels. All but four states were down YTD: Iowa (+5.3%), Idaho (+1.9%), Kansas (+1%) and Indiana (+0.7%).
November imported beer volume increased +5.8% YoY, to nearly 3.12 million barrels. Imports are now down -0.8% YTD.
Mexican imports were up again in November, increasing +9.2% YoY, continuing to rebound after the -12.8% YoY decline recorded in September. Mexican imports are now up +1.6% YTD.
Non-alcoholic (NA) beer imports increased +31.2% YoY in November, to just over 982,000 barrels, marking an increase of more than 233,000 barrels. NA imports are now up +23.5%, an increase of nearly 2.7 million barrels, driven by increases in the Netherlands (+18.2%, to nearly 8.5 million barrels) and Mexico (+76,855%, to nearly 2.2 million barrels).
The December 2023 round of economic reports will be released on February 8.