Circana: Craft Losses Soften Again; New Belgium Leading Declines in Top 30 Craft

Craft declines continue to soften in off-premise scans, according to market research firm Circana.

Craft dollar sales in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (multi-outlet + convenience) declined -3.6% and volume -5.4% year-over-year (YoY) in the four-week period ending October 6. In the previous four-week period (ending September 8), craft dollar sales declined -5% and volume -6.6%. At the time, the declines were also an improvement over the previous Circana report (dollar sales -6.5% and volume -7.8% in the four weeks ending August 11).

Still, craft continues to lag total beer, which recorded a +0.8% increase in dollar sales and -1.5% decrease in volume in the last four weeks (L4W). Imports (dollar sales +5.2%, volume +3.3%); domestic sub-premiums (dollar sales +0.2%, volume -2.3%); flavored malt beverages (dollar sales +5%, volume +3.7%); domestic super premiums (dollar sales +5.4%, volume +5.3%); and non-alcoholic beer (dollar sales +29%, volume +23.4%) all also outperformed craft in YoY growth.

Twenty-one of the top 30 craft brands by year-to-date (YTD) sales inCircana-tracked channels recorded YoY declines in the L4W, led by Bell’s Seasonal (dollar sales -25.8%, volume -25.2%), the 28th largest craft brand.

Several of Kirin-owned Bell’s sibling brands from New Belgium also recorded double-digit declines, including:

No. 16 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -25.1%, volume -26.7%);
No. 21 Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack (dollar sales -23.3%, volume -24.3%);
No. 23 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -23.1%, volume -23.4%);
No. 24 Fat Tire Ale (dollar sales -25.6%, volume -26.4%);
No. 27 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -16.7%, volume -17.3%).

Declines for No. 14 Bell’s Two Hearted Ale also accelerated (dollar sales -7.1%, volume -8.8%). No. 2 Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollar sales +6%, volume +4%) and No. 3 Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +5%, volume +2.6%) were the only brands in the combined New Belgium portfolio to record YoY gains.

No. 15 Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force remains without YoY comps, and held a 1.21% share of total craft dollar sales in the L4W.

Beyond Voodoo Ranger, six of the top 30 craft brands recorded YoY gains in multi-outlet plus convenience channels, including No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +6.7%, volume +5.9%). While still in the black, four of the six brands recorded a deceleration in growth versus the previous four-week period (ending September 8).

The exception to the rule was No. 25 Anheuser-Busch InBev-owned (A-B) Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, which increased sales +22% and volume +19.7% YoY (previous L4W dollar sales increased +18% and volume +17.2%), and No. 19 Molson Coors-owned Blue Moon Light (dollar sales +2.9%, volume +1.9%), which was in the red in the previous four-week period (dollar sales -4%, volume -5.5%).

The remaining three brands to record YoY dollar sales growth in the L4W include:

No. 8 A-B’s Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +3.7%, volume -2.2%);
No. 20 A-B’s Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug (dollar sales +27.3%, volume +23.7%);
No. 30 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (dollar sales +4.1%, volume +1.6%).

New Belgium and Bell’s declines followed similar patterns in c-stores. Of the eight brands the combined company has in top 30 craft in c-stores, five were in decline in the L4W:

No. 10 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (-20.3%, volume -22.3%);
No. 15 Bell’s Two Hearted (dollar sales -10.5%, volume -12.4%);
No. 19 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales and volume both -27.8%);
No. 22 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -25.2%, volume -27%);
No. 29 Bell’s Seasonal (dollar sales -25.4%, volume -24.7%).

Voodoo Ranger IPA was also passed in YTD dollar sales by Rhinegeist’s Truth IPA, which recorded a +15% increase in dollar sales and +11.6% increase in volume in the L4W. YTD, Truth IPA c-store dollar sales have increased +7.7%, to nearly $9.66 million, while Voodoo Ranger IPA dollar sales have declined -18.7%, to just over $9.54 million.

Other top 30 craft brands with significant declines in c-stores in the L4W include:

No. 12 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale (dollar sales -12%, volume -16%);
No. 17 Founders All Day IPA (dollar sales -13.4%, volume -13.3%);
No. 18 Boston Beer Company’s Samuel Adams Seasonal a.k.a. Octoberfest (dollar sales -28.5%, volume -29.6%);
And No. 27 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales -21.1%, volume -22.1%).

Beyond Truth IPA, seven brands maintained YoY c-store growth in the L4W, led by No. 8 Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug (dollar sales +24%, volume +19.7%). Other brands in the black include:

No. 1 Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollar sales +6.9%, volume +4.8%);
No. 2 Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +5.9%, volume +3.5%);
No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +4.2%, volume +2%);
No. 9 Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +1.1%, volume +2.7%);
No. 20 Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +14.4%, volume +11.6%);
No. 30 Fiddlehead IPA (dollar sales +10%, volume +10.7%).

Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force is now the sixth largest craft brand by YTD dollars in c-stores, passing A-B’s Elysian Space Dust and Kona Big Wave since Circana’s September report. The offering had 2.29% share of craft c-store dollars and 2.17% share of volume in the L4W.

Total craft dollar sales declined -2.7% and volume -5% YoY in c-stores in the L4W. In the last 12 weeks, craft dollar sales declined -4.5% and volume -6.5%.

Craft dollar sales declines were steeper in grocery than convenience in the L4W (-3.3%), while volume declined -4.8%. In the last 12 weeks, dollar sales of beer in grocery stores declined -3.9% and volume -5%.

Despite craft’s declines in grocery, the top 30 craft brands performed stronger in the channel than convenience in the L4W. Twelve of the top 30 brands recorded improved or flat dollar sales YoY, led by No. 26 Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +29.7%, volume +26.8%); No. 24 Sierra Nevada Seasonal (dollar sales +20.8%, volume +15.9%); No. 30 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (dollar sales +16.7%, volume +13.2%); and No. 29 Samuel Adams Seasonal Overlay (a.k.a Jack-O Pumpkin Ale), which returned to the top 30 after a few weeks off (dollar sales +14.6%, volume +12.8%).

Other brands to record dollar sales growth include:

No. 1 Blue Moon Belgian White (dollar sales +2.2%, volume +0.8%);
No. 2 Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollar sales +4.7%, volume +2.8%);
No. 4 Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s Shandy (dollar sales +2.2%, volume -0.3%);
No. 6 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +5.1%, volume +4.6%);
No. 10 Founders All Day IPA (dollar sales +2.1%, volume +3.2%);
No. 14 Elysian Space Dust (dollar sales flat, volume +0.7%);
No. 16 Blue Moon Light (dollar sales +5.8%, volume +4.3%);
No. 21 Monster-owned Cigar City Jai Alai (dollar sales +8.6%, volume +6.7%).

Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force maintained its rank as the 27th largest craft brand by YTD grocery sales, and held 0.56% share of total craft dollar sales in the L4W and 0.49% share of volume. Meanwhile, its sibling brand Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force fell off the top 30 list, bumped by Samuel Adams Jack-O. In the previous four-week period (ending September 8), Fruit Force recorded a -41.5% YoY decline in dollar sales and -42.3% decline in volume.

Seven top 30 craft brands recorded double-digit declines in grocery in the L4W – down from 11 in the previous four-week period. Those still with significant declines in the most recent four-week period include:

No. 3 Samuel Adams Octoberfest (dollar sales -14.9%, volume -17.1%);
No. 17 Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack (dollar sales -13.2%, volume -14.4%);
No. 18 Fat Tire (dollar sales -24.8%, volume -25.7%);
No. 20 Heineken-owned Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ (dollar sales -13.5%, volume -18.3%);
No. 22 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales -14.6%, volume -18.8%);
No. 23 Bell’s Seasonal (dollar sales -24.3%, volume -23.7%);
No. 27 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -18.9%, volume -20.5%).

The nine other craft brands to make the top 30, despite YoY declines, include: