Circana: Craft Declines Soften in L4W Through Early September, Still Outpacing YTD Trends

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Craft continues to fall short of 2023 trends, according to the latest monthly report from market research firm Circana, citing data through September 8.

Craft dollar sales declined -5% and volume (case sales) -6.6% year-over-year (YoY) in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (multi-outlet plus convenience) in the four-week period ending September 8. In the previous four-week period (ending August 11), craft dollar sales declined -6.5% and volume -7.8%.

Year-to-date (YTD) through September 8, craft dollar sales have now declined -3.7% and volume -5.3%.

Twenty-two of the top 30 craft brands, measured by YTD dollar sales, recorded YoY declines in the last four weeks (L4W). However, the majority were able to improve trends versus the previous four-week period, walking back accelerated declines.

Of the 13 brands to record accelerated declines in the four weeks ending August 11, nine improved trends in the most recent four-week period (ending August 9):

  • No. 1 Molson Coors-owned Blue Moon Belgian White (dollar sales -4%, volume -6.6% YoY);
  • No. 5 Molson Coors-owned Leinenkugel’s Shandy (dollar sales -12.9%, volume -16.5%);
  • No. 6 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale (dollar sales -5%, volume -9.4%);
  • No. 11 Heineken-owned Lagunitas IPA (dollar sales -12.2%, volume -16%);
  • No. 12 Duvel Moortgat’s Firestone Walker 805 (dollar sales -2.2%, volume -6.2%);
  • No. 13 Mahou-owned Founders All Day IPA (dollar sales -5.7%, volume -5.7%);
  • No. 16 Kirin-owned New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -26.6%, volume -27.9%);
  • No. 19 Blue Moon Light (dollar sales -4%, volume -5.5%);
  • No. 22 Heineken-owned Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ (dollar sales -9.1%, volume -13.6%).

The four top 30 craft brands to continue to accelerate declines in the L4W include Boston Beer Company’s No. 9 Samuel Adams Seasonal (dollar sales -17.1%, volume -18.4%) and No. 17 Samuel Adams Boston Lager (dollar sales -15.7%, volume -17%), and Kirin-owned No. 14 Bell’s Two Hearted (dollar sales -8%, volume -9.2%) and No. 27 Bell’s Seasonal (dollar sales -12.4%, volume -12.7%).

The remaining nine top 30 brands in decline in the L4W include:

  • No. 8 The Gambrinus Company’s Shiner Bock (dollar sales -8.5%, volume -9.4%);
  • No. 10 Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Elysian Space Dust IPA (dollar sales -2.5%, volume -1.1%);
  • No. 18 Monster-owned Cigar City Jai Alai IPA (dollar sales -5.5%, volume -8.1%);
  • No. 21 Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack (dollar sales -24.1%, volume -25.7%);
  • No. 23 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze IPA (dollar sales -24.7%, volume -26%);
  • No. 24 New Belgium Fat Tire (dollar sales -26.8%, volume -27.8%);
  • No. 26 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales -16.6%, volume -19.5%);
  • No. 28 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -22.6%, volume -23.4%);
  • No. 30 Samuel Adams variety pack (dollar sales -19.6%, volume -22%).

Despite declines, Samuel Adams variety pack eked past A-B’s Goose Island IPA for the No. 30 spot. In the previous four-week period, Goose Island IPA dollar sales declined -10.5% and volume -8%.

Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug, the 25th largest craft brand by YTD dollar sales, led YoY dollar sales gains in the L4W (dollar sales +30.7%, volume +25.5%). Its A-B-owned sibling brands No. 25 Wild Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +18%, volume +17.2%) and No. 7 Kona Big Wave Golden Ale (dollar sales +14.3%, volume +17%), also recorded double-digit growth in the period.

Four other top 30 craft brands were in the black in the four-week period:

  • No. 2 Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollar sales +5.2%, volume +2.9%);
  • No. 3 Voodoo Ranger Juice Force Hazy Imperial IPA (dollar sales +3.6%, volume +1.2%);
  • No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA (dollar sales +7.2%, volume +6%);
  • No. 29 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (dollar sales +6.2%, volume +4.7%).

No. 15 Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force is still in its debut year and continues to have no YoY comps. The tropical IPA had 1.16% share of total craft dollar sales in the four-week period, the same as sibling brand Bell’s Two Hearted Ale.

Craft C-Store Dollar Sales -4.1% in L4W; Grocery Dollar Sales -4.8%

Craft trends also improved in c-stores, but remain in decline YoY. Total craft dollar sales declined -4.1% and volume -6% in the channel in the L4W. In the previous four-week period, dollar sales declined -7.6% and volume -9.6%.

YTD craft dollar sales have declined -2.7% and volume -4.7% in c-stores.

Twenty-one of the top 30 craft brands in c-stores recorded YoY declines in the L4W, 12 of which recorded double-digit declines:

  • No. 6 Shiner Bock (dollar sales -15%, volume -15.9%);
  • No. 10 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -22.6%, volume -24.1%);
  • No. 11 Lagunitas IPA (dollar sales -14.1%, volume -18.7%);
  • No. 12 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale (dollar sales -13.4%, volume -17.8%);
  • No. 15 Bell’s Two Hearted (dollar sales -12.7%, volume -12.8%);
  • No. 17 Founders All Day IPA (dollar sales -11.4%, volume -11.5%);
  • No. 18 Samuel Adams Seasonal (dollar sales -19.5%, volume -20.5%);
  • No. 19 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -30.1%, volume -31.3%);
  • No. 21 Voodoo Ranger IPA (dollar sales -29.3%, volume -30%);
  • No. 26 Samuel Adams Boston Lager (dollar sales -22.7%, volume -20.8%);
  • No. 27 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales -18.2%, volume -18%);
  • No. 29 Tilray-owned 10 Barrel Pub Lager (dollar sales -19.7%, volume -18.3%).

Of the eight to record YoY growth in the L4W, three recorded double-digit growth: No. 9 Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug (dollar sales +28.5%, volume +23.1%); No. 22 Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +13.5%, volume +11.2%); and No. 22 Rhinegeist Truth IPA (dollar sales +12.3%, volume +9.2%).

Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force again was in the top 30 with no YoY comps, ranking No. 8 in YTD c-store dollar sales. The tropical IPA has claimed 1.88% share of total craft dollars YTD, with the next largest share gains reported by sibling brand Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (+1.05 points, to 5.72% share).

In grocery, craft dollar sales declined -4.8% and volume -5.5% in the L4W versus the same period in 2023. In the previous four-week period, craft dollar sales declined -5.3% and volume -6.3%.

YTD, craft dollar sales have declined -3.5% and volume -4.9% in Circana-tracked food outlets.

Twenty-two of the top 30 craft brands in grocery recorded YoY declines in the L4W, led by No. 30 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (dollar sales -41.5%, volume -42.3%). Declines accelerated slightly for the brand that recorded a -40.5% decline in dollar sales and -41.9% decline in volume in the previous four-week period.

Four other New Belgium/Bell’s brands recorded double-digit declines in the period:

  • No. 17 Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack (dollar sales -15.6%, volume -17.6%);
  • No. 18 New Belgium Fat Tire (dollar sales -27.1%, volume -28.5%);
  • No. 22 Bell’s Seasonal (dollar sales -10.6%, volume -10.4%);
  • No. 27 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze (dollar sales -20.1%, volume -22.6%).

All four brands all recorded accelerated declines versus the previous four-week period (ending August 11).

Five other top 30 craft brands recorded double-digit declines in grocery in the L4W:

  • No. 6 Samuel Adams Seasonal (dollar sales -14%, volume -16.8%);
  • No. 11 Lagunitas IPA (dollar sales -11.4%, volume -15.3%);
  • No. 14 Samuel Adams Boston Lager (dollar sales -12.8%, volume -15.3%);
  • No. 19 Lagunitas Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ (dollar sales -13.9%, volume -18.2%);
  • No. 23 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA (dollar sales -16.9%, volume -21.2%).

No. 26 Sierra Nevada Seasonal led growth among the top 30, with dollar sales increasing +29.6% and volume +23.3% in the four-week period versus the same period in 2023. No. 8 Kona Big Wave (dollar sales +21.2%, volume +23.8%) and No. 25 Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +22%, volume +22.1%) also recorded double-digit YoY growth in the L4W.

The remaining top 30 craft brands to record growth in the channel include:

  • No. 2 Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA (dollar sales +4.1%, volume +1.9%);
  • No. 5 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing (dollar sales +2.8%, volume +1.7%);
  • No. 15 Elysian Space Dust (dollar sales +3%, volume +7.4%);
  • No. 29 Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (dollar sales +9.4%, volume +7.4%).

No. 24 Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force has 0.48% share of craft grocery dollar sales YTD, and claimed 0.54% share of craft dollar sales in four-week period.