Circana: Total Beer Trends Improve Through Mid-June; FMBs Pass Craft in YTD Dollar Sales

Beer is starting to reap the benefits of the summer selling season, according to the latest monthly beer report from market research firm Circana.

Total beer dollar sales in Circana-tracked off-premise channels (total U.S. multi-outlet + convenience) have now declined -0.5% and volume -2.5% year-to-date (YTD), through June 16. While still in decline, trends have improved versus Circana’s previous report (ending May 19), when dollar sales were down -0.9% and volume -2.3%.

In the last four weeks (L4W), total beer dollar sales declined -0.5% year-over-year (YoY) and volume declined -2.6%. In the previous four-week period, dollar sales declined -1.4% and volume declined -3%.

Non-alcoholic (NA) beer continues to lead growth in the category, with dollar sales (+29.2%) and volume (+23.4%) increasing double-digits YTD. In the L4W, NA dollar sales (+29.3%) and volume (+23.3%) also increased YoY, improving on previous four-week trends (dollar sales +25.7%, volume +20.2%).

Flavored malt beverages (FMBs) and imports continued as the only other beer segments to improve trends YTD: FMB dollar sales +9.6%, volume +8.1%; import dollar sales +5.3%, volume +4%. In the L4W, FMB dollar sales increased +5.3% and volume +3.4%. Import dollar sales increased +4.8% and volume +3.3% in the period.

While down YTD, domestic sub-premiums and super premiums improved trends YoY. In the last four weeks, domestic sub-premium dollar sales increased +0.6%, while volume declined -1.7%. However, the segment lost some momentum versus the previous four-week period, when dollar sales increased +1% and volume declined -0.9%. YTD, domestic sub-premium beer dollar sales were nearly flat (-0.1%) and volume declined -1.6%.

Domestic super premium dollar sales and volume both declined -0.4% YTD. In the L4W, dollar sales increased +4.5% and volume +4.2% YoY, improving on previous four-week trends (dollar sales +3.5%, volume +3.4%).

Craft dollar sales declined -3.2% and volume -4.8% YTD. The segment was also passed by FMBs as the fourth largest beer segment by dollar sales: Craft $2.032 billion in dollar sales, FMBs $2.078 billion. In the L4W, craft dollar sales declined -5.2% and volume declined -6.8%, with dollar sales improving slightly from previous four-week trends (-5.5% YoY in the previous period), but volume falling (previously -1.7% YoY).

The discrepancy could be due to price increases in craft. In the previous report (ending May 19), the average price per case of craft beer was down -$0.08 YTD – the only beer segment to record a decline in price. However, in the latest report, the average price was up +$0.71 YTD, the third largest price increase in the category.

All beer segments recorded YoY price increases in the L4W, led by NA beer (+$1.70) and hard seltzer (+$1.60). The average price per case for total beer increased +$0.64 YoY.

Largest Price Increases Recorded in C-Stores

In convenience stores, total beer dollar sales (-0.9%) and volume (-3.3%) declined YTD. The category recorded similar trends in the L4W: dollar sales -0.9%, volume -3.4%.

Four segments have increased dollar sales and volume YTD in c-stores:

Imports (dollar sales +4.5%, volume +3%);
Domestic sub-premium (dollar sales +2.7%, volume +1%);
FMBs (dollar sales +7.6%, volume +6.6%);
NA (dollar sales +29.4%, volume +23.5%).

Five segments also increased dollar sales and volume YoY in the L4W:

Imports (dollar sales +4.6%, volume +2.4%);
FMBs (dollar sales +6.6%, volume +4.5%);
Domestic super premium (dollar sales +2.4%, volume +2.2%);
NA (dollar sales +19.4%, volume +12.7%);
Assorted (dollar sales +25.5%, volume 20.1%).

Domestic sub-premiums entered the red in the L4W, with dollar sales declining -1.8% and volume -4% YoY. In the previous four-week period, dollar sales were up +1% and volume was down -0.9%.

Despite YoY gains in the L4W, domestic super premiums (dollar sales -0.4%, volume -1%) and assorted (dollar sales -33.1%, volume -33.7%) were still down YTD.

All other segments were in decline both YTD and in the L4W.

YTD:

Domestic premium (dollar sales -4%, volume -5.5%);
Craft (dollar sales -3.4%, volume -4.7%);
Hard seltzer (dollar sales -11.7%, volume -14.3%);
Cider (dollar sales -2.2%, volume -2.7%).

L4W:

Domestic premium (dollar sales -8%, volume -8.9%);
Hard seltzer (dollar sales -7%, volume -12.1%);
Craft (dollar sales -4.6%, volume -6.8%);
Cider (dollar sales -5.7%, volume -6.9%).

Beer recorded the largest price hikes in c-stores in the L4W versus total U.S. and grocery channels. The average price per case for total beer increased +$0.81 YoY in the L4W.

Three beer segments recorded price hikes of more than $2: Hard seltzer (+$2.37), NA (+$2.09), and assorted (+$2.07).

All beer segments have increased price YTD in grocery except for domestic super premium ($-0.04), with total beer increasing by +$0.77:

Imports +$0.60;
Domestic premium +$0.22;
Domestic sub-premium +$0.32;
FMBs +$0.70;
Hard seltzer +$2.71;
Craft +$0.86;
Cider +$0.70;
NA +$2.22;
Assorted +$2.98.

Grocery Declines Accelerate

In grocery, total beer dollar sales (-0.6%) and volume (-2.2%) declined YTD. Declines accelerated in the L4W (dollar sales -1%, volume -2.9%).

The average price per case of beer in the L4W increased by +$0.58 YoY. NA beer recorded the largest price increase versus the same period in 2023, and the only increase over $1, at +$1.76. Other segments with price increases above total category trends in the L4W include:

Imports +$0.68;
Hard seltzer +$0.98;
FMBs +$0.62;
Cider +$0.78;
Assorted +$0.84.

Five segments recorded YoY dollar sales gains in the L4W:

Imports (dollar sales +3.6%, volume +1.6%);
Domestic sub-premium (dollar sales +2.7%, volume -0.4%);
Domestic super premium (dollar sales +5.9%, volume +4.9%);
FMBs (dollar sales +4.1%, volume +2.4%);
NA (dollar sales +31.5%, volume +25.4%).

Four segments are also up YTD: Imports (dollar sales +4.5%, volume +3%); domestic sub-premium (dollar sales +2.7%, volume +1%); FMBs (dollar sales +7.6%, volume +6.6%); and NA (dollar sales +29.4%, volume +23.5%).

Domestic super premium dollar sales (-0.4%) and volume (-1%) are nearly flat YTD.

All the five segments to record declines both YTD and in the L4W saw declines accelerate in the L4W.

YTD: