Seasonal trends for onsite brewery sales have remained relatively consistent since January 2021, but “in real terms” – i.e. accounting for inflation – onsite sales continue to decline, according to Brewers Association (BA) staff economist Matt Gacioch, citing data from Arryved.
Gacioch explored overall onsite sales, draft and various category sales share changes and tab size trends in the first of a three-part dive into Arryved point-of-sale data through March 2024. The series is an attempt to better understand trends for the more than 70% of BA members who sell more than 25% of their volume onsite.
The data includes reported sales from 555 locations that had beer sales in every month from January 2021 to March 2024, to help “ensure that gross sales numbers aren’t impacted by locations that opened, closed or had inconsistent operations throughout those years,” Gacioch wrote. He also explored trends of “top performers,” defined as the locations that had at least $100,000 in sales per year and had the highest positive change in gross sales from the period of April 2022-March 2023, to the period of April 2023-March 2024, with top performers’ sales growth ranging from +15% to +97%.
As previously mentioned, onsite sales trends have remained consistent over the past three years, with sales rising month-over-month “from the trough of dreary (if not ‘dry’) January, up to a peak in July, before coasting downhill through the remainder of the year,” Gacioch wrote. However, gross sales when accounting for inflation continue to decline, going from +1% year-over-year (YoY) by the end of 2022, to -3% in 2023 and -6% through the first three months of 2024.
While gross sales are down, draft’s share of onsite sales is on the rise. Since January 2022, draft has maintained 90% or more share of onsite beer sales, and reached a peak of 94% in March 2024, with further gains possible. At top performer locations, draft share is even higher, averaging around 93% to 94% every month since January 2021.
Note that draft sales can include all beer that is poured from the tap, not just beer that is consumed onsite, and sometimes includes crowler and growler fills, depending on the location.
Gacioch also emphasized that “a higher share of draught sales does not also mean higher total draught sales, only that it’s better performing than retail.” YoY changes from draft and retail sales “have been mostly in negative territory over the past year.”
Draft sales increased significantly in the first quarter of 2022, as consumers returned to post-pandemic patterns, peaking at +30% YoY in February 2022. However, YoY draft trends have been flat or negative every month since January 2023, with the exceptions of May 2023 and November 2023, which were slightly above flat. Draft sales were flat YoY in March 2024, the most recent month data is available from Arryved.
Onsite retail sales were negative YoY throughout the majority of 2022, with to-go sales in decline versus the years of COVID-19-related shutdowns. Since 2023, retail sales have averaged around -10% YoY every month.
Gacioch also explored food, non-beer and non-alc onsite sales share trends. Food sales as a percentage of gross sales have grown from 15% in January 2021, to more than 20% in the last 12 months. Food recorded a +128% increase in sales from January 2021 to March 2024. By comparison, beer sales increased +58% in the same period, suggesting that “customers are increasingly coming to breweries not just for a beer, but also for a meal,” Gacioch wrote.
Non-beer bev-alc sales increased +200% from January 2021 to March 2024. Gacioch noted that non-beer bev-alc “started from a lower baseline” of sales than beer, with more products introduced at breweries and taprooms only recently. However, “the growth has been dramatic to get to 9% category share by this year,” versus 5% share of onsite sales in 2021.
Time of day is also a major factor in non-beer bev-alc sales – something Gacioch will explore further in a future part of the series.
In the past year, most categories have recorded a plateau in share, Gacioch wrote. Food’s share of gross sales increased just over +1.5% YoY in Q1 2022, and was +1% in Q1 2024, peaking at +2% in Q1 2023. Non-beer bev-alc share increased just under +1.5% in Q1 2022 – its largest YoY increase in the period – and increased +1% in Q1 2024. Non-alcoholic beverages’ share has remained steady, just over flat YoY throughout the three-year period, while merch share has remained in slight decline, reporting flat or -1% share decline throughout the period.
Beer’s share of gross sales remains in decline but is getting better, improving from a YoY share decline of -3% in Q1 2022, to -2% in Q1 2024.
The average sales per tab “dipped in early 2021” due to pandemic-driven purchasing trends, but have been “steadily climbing since fall of 2021,” Gacioch wrote. Onsite tabs consistently increase around November and December, with higher holiday purchasing, but remain consistent throughout the rest of the year, averaging between $10 to $12 over the last year.
The percentage discount on tabs has increased slightly over the past six months, to 1.7% above the January 2021 to March 2024 average of 1.5%.
“Interestingly, the discounts follow a similar seasonal trend as average tab, with spikes around the holidays,” Gacioch wrote. “This begs the question: Are holiday promotions working to bring in more groups with higher budgets? Or are these patrons coming in to celebrate and just taking advantage of existing promotions? With the data we have available, we’re unable to tease out that answer, but it may be worth further investigation.”
Among top performers, average tab size is nearly 10% higher than the total average, at just under $25. Average discounts are also larger, at 3.5% or more.
“One possible explanation here is that the top performers are more effective at using promotions to get customers through the door and stick around for longer, leading to higher tabs than the average,” Gacioch wrote.
Look for coverage of the next installment of Gacioch’s onsite series when published by the BA. Future installments will include data on item pricing and time/day trends.