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The on-premise beer market remains challenged, but the latest numbers reveal meaningful pockets of growth beneath the topline declines. Imported and non-alcoholic beer are gaining momentum, while draft is strengthening its position relative to packaged beer.
The Q3 2026 Supply Chain Snapshot from Agrowgate finds beverage supply chains in a deceptively stable position. Markets have settled from some of the volatility seen earlier in the year, and overall supply remains functional. But that relative calm is masking persistent cost and availability pressures.
Many on- and off-premise retailers were caught off guard by the demand for bev-alc during the FIFA World Cup, according to survey results from bev-alc data and invoices platform Fintech.
The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) for July marked the second consecutive month of positive ordering trends for a majority of segments, including a 14-point jump for premium regular (50 reading).
While bev-alc has been plagued with demands for “new, new, new” at an accelerated pace in recent years, distributors are concerned that “recent innovation is not disciplined,” according to the latest Tamarron Consulting survey.
Total bev-alc sales in off-premise channels (multi-outlet plus convenience) declined -4% week-over-week (WoW) in the week ending July 9, which included the July 4 holiday, according to Circana analyst Scott Scanlon.
The July 4 holiday had an even stronger impact on on-premise sales this year, driving double-digit velocity growth throughout the week, according to CGA, a NIQ on-premise market research firm.
Convenience store retailers had a “slightly more pessimistic outlook” for beer trends in Goldman Sachs’ Q2 Beverage Bytes survey, citing “broader economic pressures/fears of recession, impacts from cooler weather” and the continued “negative impacts from the recent Bud Light controversy.”
Craft trends in off-premise channels “remain underwhelming,” but there are “signs of improvement” in Q2, according to Bump Williams Consulting’s (BWC) quarterly craft report.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for beer remained above 2022 levels in June, increasing +5.4% at home versus June 2022 and +5.3% away from home, before seasonal adjustment, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Beer producers shipped an estimated 17.5 million barrels of beer to wholesalers in May, a -4% decline (approximately 730,000 barrels) versus May 2022, according to the Beer Institute.
May recorded the largest year-over-year (YoY) decline in domestic tax paids so far this year, decreasing -7.7%, to 13.3 million barrels, according to the Beer Institute (BI).
Father’s Day was the ‘most valuable Sunday” so far this year for bev-alc in the on-premise channel, according to CGA, a NIQ on-premise market research firm.
For the first time since at least 2015, an equal number of craft beer drinkers surveyed in the Brewers Association’s (BA) annual Harris Poll said they were drinking more craft beer in 2023 than the amount who said they were drinking less craft beer – about 25% each.
Total beer category ordering rose again in June, with a reading of 54, according to the latest Beer Purchasers’ Index (BPI) shared by the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA).
Off-premise beer category dollar sales are up +0.7%, while volume sales have declined -4.1% for the four-week period ending June 17, according to market research firm NIQ. Also, the off-premise declines of Bud Light accelerated compared to previous weeks.
The on-premise channel is expected to see a welcome boost this coming week due to Independence Day, according to on-premise market research firm CGA, a NIQ company.
