Beverage-alcohol sales are down 3% year-to-date (YTD) in off-premise channels, market research firm NIQ shared in its “Halftime Report.”
Beer, wine and spirits dollar sales topped $53 billion as of July 5, the firm reported. Declines occurred across all off-premise measured channels:
- Convenience -0.8%;
- Liquor open state -3.4%;
- Grocery -3.5%;
- And mass merch, dollar and club stores -6%.
Excluding ready-to-drink (RTD) offerings (hard seltzers, FMBs, spirits-based RTDs and wine-based RTDs), every category declined in volume and only RTDs grew dollar sales:
- Beer -3.1% dollars, -4.7% volume, 42.7% dollar share;
- Spirits -2.8% dollars, -3% volume, 27% dollar share;
- Wine -5.9% dollars, -6.7% volume, 18.1% dollar share.
RTDs (12.3% dollar share) grew dollar sales (+1.7%), but lost volume (–3.2%).
“Summer selling for 2025 is falling short for beer, and the next few weeks through Labor Day will have substantial impact on overall 2025 performance,” NIQ director of bev-alc thought leadership Kaleigh Theriault said in the report.
Heading into the back half of 2025, “core beer, wine and spirits will struggle to achieve flat growth rates,” Theriault added. “RTDs will keep the category momentum in place for revenue but will end up short on volume.”
Contributing to the declines are moderation, premiumization and economic pressures, Theriault wrote. The latter has led to “rising costs, income disparity and shifting shopper behaviors,” leading consumers to reconsider their concept of “value,” she continued.
She added that “perceived value” is entering the premiumization conversation, with consumers “willing to pay more for quality, authenticity and experience.” Meanwhile, brands are rethinking value “through pack size promotions or channel strategies” to maintain relevance due to “rising costs, income disparity and shifting shopper behaviors,” Theriault wrote.
Although consumers are cutting back their consumption due to factors ranging from GLP-1 medications, cannabis use and cultural shifts, “continued interest in alcohol shows evolving drinking habits, rather than declining relevance,” Theriault wrote.
Beer’s declines in dollars (-4.7%) and volume (-6.3%) have accelerated in the last four-week period (L4W).
Theriault pointed to beer’s super premium and non-alcoholic (NA) segments “finding small pockets of growth.” Super premium posted dollar sales and volume growth in the L26W (+2.2% dollars, +2% volume) and L4W (+1.2% dollars, +1.5% volume) periods.
NA beer is growing dollars (17.7%) and volume (18.3%) YTD, with trends slowing a bit in the four-week period (+14.7% dollars, +15.6% volume).
Imported beer trends have fallen into the red at the halfway point (-1.6% dollars, -3.2% volume) and in the last month (-4.3% dollars, -6.1% volume).
Meanwhile, craft remained stuck in the red, with dollar sales (-5.5%) and volume (-7.5%) declining YTD and those losses accelerating over the last month (-6.5% dollars, -8.4% volume).
Beer segment dollar share trends through the halfway point broke out to:
- 31% imports;
- 27% domestic premium;
- 14% below premium;
- 13% craft;
- 12% super premium
- 3% others.
Going forward, the beer category will need to pull “levers beyond price discounting” to drive volume, Theriault wrote.
For spirits, the shift to RTDs continues as consumers “premiumize” and seek flavors, although producers “will need to go beyond traditional flavors” to attract drinkers, Theriault wrote. However, the turn to RTDs is “contributing to declining volume and average prices,” she added.
Within RTDs, wine- and spirits- based offerings have performed the best in both dollar sales and volume trends.
Dollars sales growth has remained double-digits:
- Wine RTDs +14.2% L52W, +15.9% L26W, +13.3% L4W;
- Spirits RTDs +20.2% L52W, +18.6% L26W, +17.6% L4W.
Volume has also maintained double-digit growth:
- Wine RTDs +13.2% L52W, +13.5% L26W, +10.7% L4W;
- Spirits RTDs +20.3% L52W, +17.6% L26W, +18.1% L4W.
FMBs’ rolling 52-week dollar sales trends are in the black (+0.8%), but are declining in the L26W (-2.8%) and L4W (-7.7%) periods. Volume trends have followed a similar acceleration in declines from L52W (-1.2%), L26W (-4.9%) and L52W (-9.8%) trends.
Hard seltzers’ dollar sales continue to trend in the red, with declines accelerating in the L52W (-7.3%), L26W (-7.4%) and L4W (-10.6%) periods. Double-digit volume declines have continued in the L52W (-10.2%), L26W (-10.4%) and L4W (-13.1%) time frames.
Even amid declining sales trends, FMBs (42%) and hard seltzers (25%) held onto the largest dollar share of the RTD segment compared to spirits RTDs (22%) and wine RTDs (11%).
Looking ahead to the back half of 2025, Theriault wrote that “several potential issues” exist and “may prove challenging,” among them:
- An overreliance on gifting for spirits and wine;
- On- and off-premise velocity challenges and 2024 price discounting levels struggling to “produce the same velocity outcome in the back half of 2025” and “volume seeking” proving “too expensive” and creating “consumer subsidization that cannot be replicated;”
- Retailer pushback on price increases in an effort to maintain store traffic and “share of wallet with shoppers;”
- And growth limited to NA, low-alc offerings, high ABV products and RTDs.