NielsenIQ: July 4 Off-Premise Beer Sales Predictably ‘Lackluster’; Hard Seltzer Hits 13% Dollar Share

The beer category didn’t see fireworks in off-premise retail sales this July 4, market research firm NielsenIQ reported.

“For the biggest beer holiday of the year, the category had lackluster performance in the off-premise channels this year, with dollar sales down -5.1% compared to last year, and up +7% compared to 2019, which was driven in great part by beyond beer segments,” NielsenIQ vice president of beverage alcohol practice Danelle Kosmal wrote.

During the two-week period ending July 10, off-premise dollar sales of total beverage alcohol declined -4.8% compared to the two weeks ending July 11, 2020, but increased +11% compared to the two weeks ending July 6, 2019. Beverage alcohol sales lagged behind sales of total fast moving consumer goods, which increased +0.2% for the two-week period surrounding the holiday.

The decline of off-premise alcohol sales “was expected, given the shift back to on-premise establishments, along with the tough comps from last year,” Kosmal wrote.

Dollar sales of core beer — which excludes hard seltzers, flavored malt beverages and cider — declined by -7% compared to 2020 and by -2.7% compared to 2019. Driving those losses were premium lights (-9.2% vs. 2019) and below premium (-13.9% vs. 2019). Dollar sales of craft beer declined -1.9% compared to 2019. Both cider (-7.9% vs. 2019) and FMBs (-3.6% vs. 2019) also posted declines.

In the core beer segment, Mexican imports (+6.3% vs. 2020 and +9.4% vs. 2019) and non-alcoholic beer (+29% vs. 2020 and +70% vs. 2019) fueled dollar sales growth. Both segments also increase their dollar share in the beer category. Mexican imports’ share increased 0.4 sharepoints, and non-alc beer’s share grew 0.2 sharepoints. Non-alcoholic beer now accounts for 0.6% of total beer category dollar sales, according to Kosmal.

Hard seltzer reached its highest-ever share of beer category dollar sales at 13%. The segment totaled $280 million at NielsenIQ-tracked retailers during the holiday.

“That’s more than sales for all red table wine sold in those same channels for the July 4 holiday,” Kosmal noted.

Hard seltzer’s growth has begun to slow, notably causing Boston Beer to miss its Q2 projections during the company’s earnings report last week. Off-premise sales of hard seltzer during the holiday increased +9% over 2020 levels, which pales in comparison to the segment’s +189% increase over 2019 sales. Nevertheless, hard seltzer recorded “the largest gains in actual dollars compared to any other segment” in the beer category, Kosmal wrote.

More than half of the hard seltzers on NielsenIQ’s top 10 list this year were new compared to 2019. Segment leaders Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw and Boston Beer’s Truly Hard Seltzer remain entrenched at the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively, but all other spots on the list vary greatly. Diageo’s Smirnoff Spiked Sparkling Seltzer fell six spots, from No. 4 in 2019 to No. 10 in 2021. The brand’s top 10 appearance was only during the July 4 holiday period, as year-to-date the 10th best-selling hard seltzer is Cacti, Anheuser-Busch InBev’s collaboration with musician Travis Scott.

A-B’s Bon & Viv, the No. 3 brand in 2019, did not make the list in 2021. Other 2019 top 10 sellers that did not make the 2021 list include:

  • No. 5 Henry’s Hard Sparkling Water, which Molson Coors discontinued;
  • No. 7 Golden Road Fruit Cart (A-B);
  • No. 8 Oskar Blues Wild Basin Boozy Sparkling Water (CANarchy);
  • No. 9 Press Premium Alcohol Seltzer;
  • No. 10 Arctic Chill (Mass. Bay Brewing Company).

The top 10 best-selling hard seltzers during the July 4 period in 2021 include:

  • White Claw (Mark Anthony)
  • Truly (Boston Beer)
  • Bud Light Seltzer (A-B)
  • High Noon Sun Sips (E. & J. Gallo Winery)
  • Corona Hard Seltzer (Constellation Brands)
  • Vizzy (Molson Coors)
  • Michelob Ultra Organic Seltzer (A-B)
  • Topo Chico Hard Seltzer (Molson Coors)
  • Mike’s Hard Lemonade Seltzer (Mark Anthony)
  • Smirnoff Spiked Sparkling Seltzer (Diageo).

The broader ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, which includes hard seltzer, led total beverage alcohol growth during the July 4 holiday. With dollar sales +67% compared to 2020 and +428% compared to 2019, spirits-based RTDs outpaced other RTD offerings.

In the spirits-based RTD segment, five top-selling brands accounted for 65% of total spirits-based RTD off-premise sales during the holiday. They include:

  • High Noon Sun Sips (E. & J. Gallo Winery)
  • Cutwater Spirits (A-B)
  • On the Rocks (Beam Suntory)
  • Monaco (Atomic Brands)
  • Crown Royal (Diageo)

RTDs accounted for 5% of total spirits category dollars during the holiday period and increased share by 2 points. Tequila, the dominant flavor of ascendant hard seltzer subsegment ranch water, “gained significant share” and accounts for 14% of off-premise spirits dollars, Kosmal noted.