This month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) once again showed the bev-alc industry that pricing power remains in the on-premise, with price increases away from home far outweighing at-home raises and overall inflation.
So which brands are poised to take advantage?
National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) chief economist and VP of analytics Lester Jones and Fintech VP of distributor strategy Eric Kiser explored that question during a webinar last week. The duo analyzed trends based on Fintech’s database of retailer invoices (purchases from wholesalers).
Brewbound previously dove into beer segment and vendor trends across the on- and off-premise. Catch up on that coverage here.
Draft accounts for the majority of on-premise retailer dollar spend, and the majority of that spend is on Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Michelob Ultra (16.6%). That dominating share continues to rise, up 1.3 points year-to-date (YTD) – the second-largest share gain across the top 15 draft brands.
Behind Michelob Ultra, the next four largest brands have all recorded share losses YTD, three of which are Molson Coors brands:
- Molson Coors’ Miller Lite, -0.8 points, to 11.9%;
- Molson Coors’ Coors Light, -0.2 points, to 11.5%;
- A-B’s Bud Light, -1.5 points, to 8.7%;
- And Molson Coors’ Blue Moon, -0.4 points, to 6.5%.
No. 6 Constellation Brands’ Modelo Especial recorded the largest share gain YTD (2.4%), and now accounts for 6% of on-premise retailer draft dollar spend, quickly catching up with Blue Moon.
Other share gainers in the top 15 include:
- No. 10 A-B’s Busch Light, +0.4 points, to 2.2%;
- No. 11 Constellation’s Pacifico, +0.3 points, to 1.9%;
- No. 12 Guinness, +0.3 points, to 1.6%;
- And No. 14 A-B’s Kona, +0.1 points, to 1.1%.
Beer brands beyond the top 30, classified as “all others,” account for 8.5% of draft spend, declining 0.5 points YTD. All others’ trends give insights into greater category patterns, suggesting beer brands are collectively losing draft share as retailers both rationalize their lineups, and make room for draft options beyond traditional beer.
Similar trends play out across package, with Michelob Ultra holding the No. 1 share of retailer dollar spend on both cans (+0.8 points YTD, to 10.1%) and bottles (+1.7 points, to 19.4%).
Bottles are notably more top-heavy, with the top four brands accounting for more than half (53%) of total spend. Beyond Michelob Ultra, those brands include Miller Lite (flat, at 13%), Coors Light (-0.1 points, to 11.8%) and Bud Light (-0.6%, to 9.8%).
All others in bottles account for 8.1% share, down 0.2 points YTD.
In cans, the top seven brands make up about half of on-premise retailer spend (50.2%), including:
- Miller Lite, -0.2 points, to 8.5%;
- Coors Light +0.1 points, to 7.8%;
- Busch Light, +1.2 points, to 7.4%;
- Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw, -0.4 points, to 5.9%;
- Modelo Especial, flat at 5.7%;
- And Bud Light, -0.2 points, to 4.8%.
The top 30 can brands have noticeably more beyond beer offerings in the mix, with hard seltzer and flavored malt beverage (FMB) brands joining the channel primarily in package. However, every beyond beer offering among the top 30 can brands has lost share YTD, including Boston Beer Company’s Twisted Tea (-0.1 points, to 1.5%) and Truly Hard Seltzer (-0.7 points, to 1.2%); and Molson Coors’ Topo Chico Hard Seltzer (-0.1 points, to 0.9%).
“If anyone’s ever shot themselves in the foot in the alcohol beverage industry, it’s the liquor industry for chasing RTDs [ready-to-drink cocktails] the way they did,” Jones said, noting that most RTD brands prioritize the off-premise, which is filled with crowded shelves and tighter margins.
“They just shot themselves in the foot, especially as consumers kind of shifted their preferences around on those packages,” he continued.
Jones and Kiser also dove into brand trends across beer segments, analyzing share of on- and off-premise retailer dollar spend combined.
Fall Seasonals: The majority of the top fall seasonal brands have increased their share of on- and off-premise retailers dollars YTD, including No. 1 Boston Beer’s Samuel Adams OctoberFest, which now has a 33.4% share, increasing 5.2 points YTD. Nearly half of that share was taken from Kirin-owned New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger Atomic Pumpkin Ale, which fell 2.5 points, to 2.2%, slipping from the third-largest fall seasonal by share, to the ninth-largest.
Other notable share gainers include No. 2 Paulaner Oktoberfest (+1.1 points, to 11.2%), Warsteiner Oktoberfest (+2.1 points, to 5.8%), Hofbrau Oktoberfest (+0.5 points, to 3.2%) and Weihenstephan Festbier (+0.4 points, to 1.7%).
“There’s a bunch of great old-school German imports that make this list and have relevance in our marketplace today,” Jones said. “That’s testament to getting out and celebrating Oktoberfest and celebrating the fall season.”
Jones also noted that fall seasonals hit retailers a week later than they did in 2024, suggesting a change in trend after several years of increasingly earlier transition to fall offerings.
Low- and No-Alcohol: Total retailer spending on low- and non-alcoholic (NA) beers has fluctuated between $6 million and more than $10 million per week, staying above 2024 trends of between $5 million and $8 million. That spend peaks at the start of the year for Dry January, but spikes during the summer selling season nearly matching the one-month driver, backing NA producers’ claims that the segment follows similar patterns to traditional beer.
Heineken 0.0 has the largest share of retailers’ NA beer purchases (17.4%), but has lost 3.3 share points YTD as several other large beer brands have expanded their own NA offerings, including Michelob Ultra Zero. The latter launched this year, and already has the second-largest share of retailer NA purchases (9.3%).
Also on the rise is No. 4 Corona NA (+2.6 points, to 8.3%), which is catching up to craft NA brand Athletic Run Wild (-0.3 points, to 8.4%).
All others account for 15.3% share, up 0.5 points YTD, suggesting retailers are expanding the number of low-alc and NA brands they carry. As the segment expands, some other big-name offerings are losing share, including:
- No. 5 Budweiser Zero, -3.3 points, to 7.1% (the second-largest NA brand in 2024);
- No. 6 Busch NA, -1.6 points, to 5.9%;
- No. 9 A-B’s Stella Artois Liberte NA, -0.8 points, to 1.8%;
- No. 12 A-B’s O’Douls NA, -1.6 points, to 2.5%;
- And No. 14 Coors NA, -0.6 points, to 1.3%.
Imports: Despite macroeconomic headwinds, retailers’ spend on imports has remained relatively the same and sometimes above 2024 levels, fluctuating between $100 million and nearly $200 million per week, according to Fintech data.
Modelo Especial accounts for more than one-third of retailer purchase dollars (36.7%) and continues to gain share (+0.8 points YTD), despite slowed growth for the Mexican import brand.
Meanwhile, its sibling brand Corona Extra suffered the largest share loss YTD (-1.2 points), but remains well-ahead of its next largest competitor, with 19.4% of retailer spend compared to No. 3 Heineken’s 6% share (-0.7 points YTD).
No. 7 Pacifico, also in Constellation’s portfolio, has the largest share growth YTD (+1.3 points, to 5%), with sibling brands No. 10 Corona Familiar (+0.3 points, to 2.1%) and No. 16 Victoria (+0.2 points, to 1%) also gaining share.
Notable losses were recorded by No. 4 Heineken’s Dos Equis (-0.4 points, to 4.7%), No. 5 Stella Artois (-0.4 points, to 4.2%) and No. 8 Corona Premier (-0.2 points, to 2%). Meanwhile, all others are up 0.4 points, to 6.9% share.
Beyond Beer: White Claw continues to increase its dominating share of retailers’ beyond beer purchases, increasing 1.7 points, to 26.3% YTD. Despite declines in scans, Twisted Tea has also added to its No. 2 share (+0.5 points, to 17%).
There are greater fluctuations in share across the top beyond beer brands compared to aforementioned segments.
Notable declines were recorded by:
- No. 3 Truly, -0.9 points, to 7.9%;
- No. 8 Mark Anthony Brands’ Mike’s Hard, -0.7 points, to 3.5%;
- No. 10 Seagram’s Escapes, -0.5 points, to 2.2%:
- No. 11 Molson Coors’ Simply Spiked, -0.8 points, to 1.9%;
- No. 13 Phusion Project’s Four Loko, -0.2 points, to 1.6%;
- And No. 15 Monster Brewer’s Beast (formerly the Beast Unleashed), -0.5 points, to 1%.
Meanwhile, top beyond beer brands to gain share included:
- No. 4 Diageo’s Smirnoff Ice, +0.4 points, to 6.2%;
- No. 5 Mark Anthony Brands’ Cayman Jack, +0.2 points, to 4.9%;
- No. 6 Mike’s Harder (an 8% ABV extension of Mike’s Hard), +0.3 points, to 4.6%;
- No. 7 White Claw Surge (also a higher ABV extension), +0.7 points, to 4.1%:
- No. 9 Topo Chico Hard Seltzer, +0.2 points, to 2.8%;
- No. 12 Geloso’s Clubtails, +0.3 points, to 1.6%;
- No. 14 Bud Light Rita, +0.3 points, to 0.8%;
- No. 16 Boston Beer’s Hard Mountain Dew, +0.2 points, to 1%:
- And No. 17 Happy Dad, +0.1 points, to 0.9%.
All others are down 1.2 share points YTD, to 11.5%.
Craft: Overall retailer spending on craft is down in 2025 compared to 2024 as retailers continue to rationalize the segment – with more cuts likely to come as craft brands beyond the top 20 account for 65.4% of total retailer spend, down 0.6 points YTD.
Those cutbacks appear to be favoring some of the largest craft brands, as the top 3 by retailer spend all increased share YTD, including No. 1 Blue Moon (+0.1 points, to 9.9%), No. 2 Voodoo Ranger (+0.2 points, to 8.2%) and No. 3 Sierra Nevada (+0.8 points, to 6.6%).
Other top share gainers include No. 7 Kona (+0.3 points, to 2.7%), No. 9 Heineken’s Lagunitas (+0.4 points, to 2.5%) and No. 11 Duvel’s Firestone Walker (+0.4 points, to 2.2%).
It’s unclear how price increases factor into share changes, as pricing changes have varied significantly across craft brands (as seen in the latest Circana beer report).
The largest share losses among top brands were recorded by No. 4 Samuel Adams (-0.2 points, to 4.6%), No. 5 Kirin-owned Bell’s (-0.2 points, to 3.6%), No. 8 Gambrinus-owned Shiner (-0.2 points, to 2.6%) and No. 17 Tilray-owned SweetWater (-0.2 points, to 1%).