Constellation Brands’ uncharacteristically slow year may be impacting its full-year projections, but the company continues to find growth in the off-premise where the overall beer industry has not, according to the latest monthly report from market research firm Circana (data ending October 6).
In the last 12 weeks (L12W) – roughly encapsulating the entirety of Q3 – Constellation’s portfolio of Mexican beer brands (Modelo, Corona, Pacifico and Victoria) recorded dollar sales (+4.1%) and volume (+2.7%) growth in Circana-tracked off-premise channels compared to the same period in 2024.
The company remains the second-largest beer vendor, with 20.56% share of total beer dollar sales in the 12-week period, marking a 1.09 share point increase compared to the same period in 2024.
It appears the majority of that share was taken from No. 3 vendor Molson Coors. The latter company recorded a 0.81 point dip in share in the L12W, to 17.73%. That decline was the largest share loss among the top 25 vendors and well-above the next largest share shedder, No. 5 vendor Boston Beer Company (-0.18 points, to 5.35%).
While Constellation led sales gains among the top 5 vendors in the L12W, Molson Coors recorded the largest YoY losses, with dollar sales declining 5.75% and volume down 7.6%. Similar losses were recorded by Boston Beer (dollar sales -4.6%, volume -6.4%).
No. 1 beer vendor Anheuser-Busch InBev (A-B) also remained in the red in the quarter (dollar sales -1.6%, volume -3.1%), while No. 4 Mark Anthony Brands recorded flat dollar sales (+0.1%) and down volume (-2.2%).
Despite declines, Molson Coors retains the second-largest share of total beer volume (-0.98 points in the L12W, to 21.86%), above Constellation (+1.01 points, to 16.76%) and below A-B (+0.11 points, to 36.83%).
Across the top-25 beer vendors, five others recorded YoY sales growth in Q3:
- No. 8 Kirin-Lion (New Belgium, Bell’s), dollar sales +6.7%, volume +4.6%;
- No. 12 Sierra Nevada Brewing, dollar sales +5%, volume +2.3%;
- No. 13 Geloso Beverage Group, dollar sales +8%, volume +9.8%;
- No. 17 Sazerac, dollar sales +6%, volume +3.2%;
- And No. 24 Athletic Brewing, dollar sales +57.4%, volume +61.6%.
Three vendors eked out slight dollar sales growth, but recorded volume declines:
- No. 4 Mark Anthony Brands, dollar sales +0.1%, volume -2.2%;
- No. 7 Diageo, dollar sales +0.7%, volume -0.6%;
- No. 22 Firestone Walker, dollar sales +0.1%, volume -1.8%.
It’s worth noting that some of the top vendors in growth also recorded some of the largest price increases, including Sazerac, which recorded a $4.23 YoY increase in average case price in Q3, to $160.49. Sazerac’s beer portfolio is made up primarily of flavored malt beverages and malt-based versions of BuzzBallz’ ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs), and its average case price is more than $100 above all other top beer vendors.
Other notable YoY price increases among growing vendors include Sierra Nevada (+$1.09, to $43.41), Firestone Walker (+$1.54, to $40.52) and Mark Anthony (+$0.95, to $41.15).
Meanwhile, Athletic (-$1.13, to $42.95) and Geloso (-$0.79, to $46.49) recorded price declines.
Among the remaining top 25 vendors, No. 14 Tilray Brands led YoY sales declines in Q3 as the global cannabis company continues to trim SKUs across its bev-alc portfolio (dollar sales -19.6%, volume -19.3%). No. 10 Yuengling also recorded double-digit dollar sales (-12%) and volume (-13.2%) losses.
All other top 25 vendors recorded single-digit declines in the L12W:
- No. 6 Heineken, dollar sales -5.3%, volume -7%;
- No. 9 Pabst Brewing, dollar sales -7%, volume -6.3%;
- No. 11 FIFCO USA, dollar sales -9.2%, volume -10%;
- No. 15 Phusion Projects, dollar sales -2.8%, volume -4.7%;
- No. 16 Lagunitas, dollar sales -8.2%, volume -12.3%;
- No. 18 Monster Brewing (excluding craft brands), dollar sales -7.8%, volume -6.6%;
- No. 19 The Gambrinus Company, dollar sales -6.9%, volume -8.4%;
- No. 23 Sapporo USA, dollar sales -1.7%, volume -1.8%:
- No. 25 CANarchy (Monster Brewing’s craft brands), dollar sales -6.5%, volume -9.1%.
The difference in Lagunitas’ dollar sales and volume declines can be partially attributed to a $1.93 increase in average case price, to $43.86.
Several vendors do not make the top 25 in total Circana-tracked off-premise channels, but do in convenience and/or grocery.
In c-stores, those vendors include:
- No. 23 Artisanal Brewing Ventures (ABV), Q3 dollar sales -10.7% YoY, volume -11.5%;
- No. 24 Happy Dad, dollar sales +60.5%, volume +63.5%;
- And No. 25 Mahou USA, dollar sales -7.6%, volume -9.3%.
In grocery, those vendors include:
- No. 22 Deschutes Brewery, dollar sales -5.4%, volume -8.8%;
- No. 23 Happy Dad, dollar sales +38.8%, volume +40.5%;
- And No. 24 Prestige Beverage Group, dollar sales +64.8%, volume +63.7%.
Pacifico, Twisted Tea Top Growth Brands; Truly and Mike’s Hard Lead Declines
Similar to vendor trends, Q3 results were mixed across the top beer brand families in Circana-tracked channels.
Pacifico, the 18th largest beer brand family by YTD dollar sales, leads growth trends, with dollar sales increasing 25.2% and volume up 23.7% in the L12W. The offering was the only top 25 brand family to record double-digit YoY growth in Q3, and one of eight to be in the black for the quarter.
Other top brand families to record YoY dollar sales growth in Q3 include:
- No. 1 Modelo, dollar sales +5%, volume +4%;
- No. 3 A-B’s Michelob Ultra, dollar sales +4.3%, volume +4.1%;
- No. 7 Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw, dollar sales +1.5%, volume -1.1%;
- No. 8 A-B’s Busch, dollar sales +3.9%, volume +1.1%;
- No. 9 Boston Beer’s Twisted Tea, dollar sales +7.4%, volume +5.5%;
- No. 13 New Belgium, dollar sales +1.8%, volume -1.4%;
- And No. 23 Sierra Nevada, dollar sales +2.8%, volume flat.
While still in the black, Modelo’s growth has slowed significantly compared to year-to-date (YTD) trends (dollar sales +9%, volume +8.2%). A similar story is playing out for Twisted Tea (YTD dollar sales +12.7%, volume +10.6%) and New Belgium (YTD dollar sales +7.8%, volume +4.8%).
No. 17 Molson Coors-owned Miller High Life had flat dollar sales in the period, while volume declined 4.3%. The brand family had one of the largest YoY price per case increases in Q3 (+$0.90, but remains the fourth cheapest on the top 25 list ($21.07 per case).
Other notable price increases were recorded by New Belgium (+$1.43, to $45.82), Sierra Nevada (+$1.14, to $43.36) and White Claw (+$1.08, to $41.31), which may explain why the three had negative or flat volume, but positive dollar sales.
Among the remaining 16 top brand families, Boston Beer’s Truly Hard Seltzer led sales declines, with dollars declining 22.3% and volume down 24.4%. Those dollar sales losses were in spite of a $0.99 increase in average case per price, to $38.09.
Double-digit declines were also recorded by No. 21 Yuengling (dollar sales -15.8%, volume -17.3%) and No. 25 Mark Anthony Brands-owned Mike’s Hard Lemonade (dollar sales -19%, volume -20.%).
All other brand families recorded single-digit losses:
- No. 2 A-B’s Bud, dollar sales -5.1%, volume -7%;
- No. 4 Corona, dollar sales -1.2%, volume -3.1%;
- No. 5 Molson Coors’ Coors, dollar sales -5.4%, volume -7.2%:
- No. 6 Molson Coors’ Miller Lite, dollar sales -5.5%, volume -7.6%;
- No. 10 A-B’s Natural, dollar sales -2.3%, volume -4.9%;
- No. 11 Heineken, dollar sales -5.2%, volume -7.4%:
- No. 14 Diageo’s Smirnoff, dollar sales -1.3%, volume -2.6%;
- No. 15 A-B’s Bud Specialty, dollar sales -6.6%, volume -8.2%;
- No. 16 Mark Anthony-owned Mike’s Harder, dollar sales -0.5%, volume -2.9%;
- No. 19 Heineken’s Dos Equis XX, dollar sales and volume each -7.1%;
- No. 20 Molson Coors’ Keystone, dollar sales -3.5%, volume -5.4%;
- No. 22 A-B’s Stella Artois, dollar sales -4.5%, volume -6.4%;
- No. 24 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon, dollar sales -7%, volume -9.1%.
Bud’s Q3 trends mark a deceleration in declines, with YTD trends still down double-digits (dollar sales -11.7%, volume -13.2%). A similar trend is playing out with sibling brand Bud Specialty (YTD dollar sales -10.3%, volume -11.5%).
Meanwhile, losses accelerated for many of Molson Coors’ top offerings, including Coors (YTD dollar sales +0.9%, volume -0.8%), Miller Lite (YTD dollar sales -1.2%, volume -3.1%) and Keystone (YTD dollar sales -1.1%, volume -2.6%).