Molson Coors has lowered its fiscal year 2025 (FY25) guidance once again after a softer than expected Q2, due to continued macroeconomic headwinds and “lower than expected U.S. share performance.”
Molson Coors’ updated full-year guidance includes:
- Net sales: -3% to -4%, with U.S. revenue between -4% and -6% (previously low-single-digit decline);
- Underlying (Non-GAAP) income before income taxes: -12% to -15% on a constant currency basis (previously low-single-digit decline);
- Underlying (Non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share: -7% to -10% decline (previously low-single-digit growth);
- Capital expenditures: $650 million, plus or minus 5% (unchanged);
- Underlying (Non-GAAP) free cash flow: $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10% (unchanged).
Molson Coors already lowered its guidance once this year, announcing changes in May with its Q1 financials release. The company’s initial guidance projected low-single-digit net sales growth, mid-single-digit underlying non-GAAP income growth and $750 in capital expenditure.
At the time of the first guidance change, Molson Coors said it expected U.S. beer trends to improve in Q2 and through the rest of the year, projecting industry volume declines around 3%. However, beer has remained challenged, with volumes down around 5% through the first half of the year (H1).
Molson Coors’ own declines softened slightly in Q2 compared to Q1, but remained down significantly compared to Q2 2024, with financial volumes, or sales to wholesalers (shipments) declining 7% year-over-year (YoY) and brand volume, or sales to retailers (depletions) down 5.1%. Those declines were on top of Q2 2024 losses (shipments -4.1%, volume -4.9%).
“Certainly consumer confidence and the macro-environment, whilst we continue to believe very strongly that that is cyclical, we’re not seeing any signs of that changing in the balance of the year, and it certainly didn’t in the second quarter,” Molson Coors CEO Gavin Hattersley shared Tuesday during a call with investors and analysts.
Through the first half of the year, Molson Coors’ shipments are now down 10.2%, while depletions have declined 6.4%. One year ago, the company was experiencing flat shipments and a 1% depletions decline for H1 FY24.
Molson Coors’ net sales declined 2.6% in Q2, and are now down 6.1% through H1 2025.
In the Americas, Molson Coors’ Q2 shipments declined 6.6% YoY while depletions were down 4%. In the U.S. alone, shipments fell 6.1%, while depletions were down 5.3%. Net sales for the full region decline 2.8% YoY.
Along with macroeconomic trends, Molson Coors’ latest figures were also impacted by the company’s exit from its contracting brewing relationship with Pabst in 2024, and continued effects from the Local 997 strike at its Forth Worth brewery, which lasted from mid-February to late May 2024.
The latter created a 300,000 hectoliter (about 255,650 barrel) shipment headwind that is expected to be offset in the back half of this year, primarily in Q3, CFO Tracey Joubert said during Tuesday’s call.
Additionally, Molson Coors has been heavily affected by aluminum pricing and increases in the Midwest Premium, which has risen 180% from the start of the year, leadership shared. The company expects the impact of the Midwest Premium price increases to be between $20 million and $35 million for the second half of 2025, totaling $40 million to $55 million for the full year, Joubert said.
Joubert noted that the company is not directly experiencing other significant impacts from recent economic and trade moves in the U.S.
Hattersley also shared that Molson Coors’ share performance in the U.S. “wasn’t what we had expected,” and “stayed relatively same as it did in Q1” despite the company projecting share growth in Q2.
“We estimate we’ve lost about 50 bps of share in the second quarter and we’ve made the same assumption for the balance of the year,” Hattersley said. “And obviously we’re working very hard to change that. But from a guidance point of view, we’ve assumed little change in our share performance.”
In NIQ-tracked off-premise channels, Molson Coors’ dollar share of total beer is down 0.5% YTD, to 17.1% (data ending July 12), while volume share is down 0.6%, to 21.3% of total beer case sales, according to data shared by 3 Tier Beverages. The company’s YTD dollar sales (-5.6%) and volume (-6.9%) are both down single digits.
Scans do not include on-premise data, where Molson Coors has stronger trends, Hattersley noted.
Molson Coors leadership dove deeper into brand-specific trends during Tuesday’s call. Look for further coverage on Brewbound.com.