An estimated 10.3 million barrels of beer were shipped in the U.S. in February, a -14.9% decline and loss of more than 1.8 million barrels year-over-year (YoY), Beer Institute (BI) chief economist Andrew Heritage reported in the trade group’s latest round of economic reports, citing estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
The latest decline is in stark contrast to where the industry was a year ago, when the BI reported a +7.9% YoY increase in February domestic tax paid shipments, then the “strongest monthly growth” since May 2021. That increase was later updated to +9.6%, marking the largest YoY increase of 2024.
February also marked a considerable acceleration in declines versus January, when domestic tax paids declined -8.7% YoY. Year-to-date (YTD) through the first two months of 2025, beer shipments have declined -11.9%, to an estimated 20.85 million barrels, marking a loss of more than 2.8 million barrels versus the first two months of 2024.
Note, figures are estimates and may change as more numbers are reported by the TTB. However, trends likely will not improve in the BI’s March report, should the industry follow 2024 trends. In March 2024, domestic tax paids followed February’s notable growth with a -15.8% YoY volume decline, a “historically soft March” and the largest decline of 2024 by nearly 2X.
While double-digit declines are nothing to scoff at, Heritage encouraged industry members to consider the context of February’s performance and comps, including 2024’s historical ebbs and flows, when analyzing data.
“Last year at this time, total industry supply was +7.2% year-to-date through the first two months of 2024, while depletions were running several percentage points softer,” Heritage wrote. “One year later, total supply has declined -9.1% YTD in 2025 … but other metrics indicate the industry is performing several percentage points better than the shipments trend.”
Over the last 12 months, total industry supply (domestic shipments plus imports) has declined -4.3%, “roughly about where it stood at this time last year,” Heritage continued. An atypically cold winter and “economic uncertainty” has also contributed to “further slowed retail sales,” he wrote.
“It’s best not to read too much into any one month and February is typically the lowest-selling month of the year by volume,” Heritage wrote. “Best to sort out uncertainty now with the hope that consumer sentiment settles before heading into the key months of the summer selling season.”
On a state level, February shipments to wholesalers declined -14% YoY. YTD, state shipments have declined -10.2%, to nearly 26.35 million barrels, a loss of 3 million barrels versus the first two months of 2024.
Nearly every state recorded YoY shipment volume declines in February, except for Hawaii (+13.8%) and Delaware (+2%).
Hawaii’s double-digit increase – as well as its +7% YTD shipment volume growth – could be a signal that tourism has rebounded in the state a year and a half after wildfires devastated Maui, Heritage noted. Tennessee (+1.5%) and Wyoming (+1.1%) were the only other states to record growth YTD, despite February declines (-2.5% and -3.8% YoY, respectively).
In 2024, February state shipments increased +5.8% YoY, with YTD volume up +5.7%.
February beer imports declined -4.1% YoY, according to Heritage, citing data from the Department of Commerce.
Mexico, the U.S.’s largest beer importer by YTD volume, recorded a +1.5% YoY increase in volume. However, that growth was offset by YoY declines by “most other major beer trading partners,” including No. 2 the Netherlands (-19.1%), No. 3 Ireland (-50.1%) and No. 5 Canada (-89.1%).
Canada also recorded the largest YTD decline of the top beer importers (-77.1%), which could be due to increased trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada. However, Canadian beer imports were also in decline in February 2024 (-32.8% YoY, -13.4% YTD), albeit at a notably lower rate.
Total beer imports are still in the black YTD (+0.8%), thanks to a stronger January, which saw total imports increase +5.7% YoY and Mexican imports increase +8%.
Heritage also noted that imports of “no-alcohol” (NA) beer continue to grow, with February volume increasing +11.9% YoY, to nearly 1.58 million gallons (50,942 barrels). NA beer imports are up +23.6% YTD, to more than 3.6 million gallons (116,428 barrels).
The Netherlands is the largest importer of NA beer to the U.S. by YTD volume, driven by Heineken 0.0, and has increased NA beer volume +6.2% YTD. However, the country recorded a -12.1% decrease in NA beer imports YoY, as did No. 2 NA beer importer Ireland (-44.5% YoY, -37.3% YTD). February’s growth was instead driven by No. 3 Mexico (+1,193.8% YoY, +211.5% YTD); No. 4 Germany (+13.5% YoY, +26.9% YTD); and No. 5 Canada (+89.9% YoY, +23.4% YTD).
Industry members won’t know how President Donald Trump’s recently announced tariffs will impact import beer volume for several months, with the BI’s March reports scheduled to be released May 8.
On Wednesday, Trump announced several tariffs plans, including a 25% tariff on all imported beer and empty aluminum cans, which will go into effect April 4. Additionally, a minimum 10% baseline tariff will be implemented for imports from nearly every country, except for Russia, Cuba, Belarus and North Korea, effective April 5.
Some trading partners will have higher tariffs, including China (34% in addition to a 20% existing tariff), the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Japan (24%), and others.