Beer Purchasers’ Index Expands in October 2020
The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers’ Index — which tracks wholesalers’ monthly buying behaviors — expanded in October 2020 with an index of 76. That marked a six point gain over October 2019.
An index above 50 indicates expansion of buying, while a reading below 50 denotes contraction.
According to the NBWA, the data in the October 2020 index “shows early signs of settling back to normal.”
“While still significantly higher, the gap between October 2020 and October 2019 is much smaller than we have seen since May,” NBWA chief economist Lester Jones said in a press release. “Beer distributors continue to take an aggressive stance in their ordering to minimize out-of-stocks and restock inventories.”
Hard seltzers and FMBs drove the growth in the October 2020 index, posting a reading of 92, up seven points from the October 2019 reading. Other segments in expansion territory in October included imports (68), craft beer (51), premium lights (67) and premium regular (53).
Purchasing of both below premium offerings (48) and cider (44) contracted last month.
Additionally, the NBWA said the inventory at risk of going out of code within the next 30 days remained at an all-time low, with a reading of 21 in October 2020 — compared to an index of 46 in October 2019.
US Brewers Ship 14.8 Million Barrels in September
Year-to-date through September, U.S. brewers have shipped more than 126.5 million barrels of beer, a decline of 0.9% (or more than 1.1 million barrels), according to domestic tax paid estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) shared by the Beer Institute.
In September, shipments totaled 14.8 million barrels, a slight bump of 4,000 barrels, compared to September 2019.
The May 2020 estimate has also been readjusted downward, to 13.77 million barrels from a previous estimate of more than 14.2 million barrels. As such, the May 2020 estimate is down 9.5% (or 1.4 million barrels fewer than in May 2019).
BI president and CEO Jim McGreevy explained the adjustment in an update to the trade group’s members.
“Certain suppliers that do not report their actual data to the Beer Institute but for whom the Beer Institute may provide estimates have filed returns showing declines during May that were greater than expected,” he wrote. “Other suppliers have yet to actually file quarterly returns.”
May likely won’t be the last revision, as the BI has previously warned of revisions and the group said it expects additional changes to the numbers due to a postponement in reporting requirements for filing and payment due dates of up to 90 days.
October 2020 shipment data is expected to be released on November 24.
McGreevy also shared state shipments for September, which are down 1% year-to-date. That marked a decline of nearly 1.5 million barrels compared to last year. States in the black so far in 2020, include Alabama (+2%), Arizona (+9%), Arkansas (+3%), Colorado (+3.5%), Florida (+2.2%), Idaho (flat), Kansas (+8.4%), Louisiana (+0.8%), Mississippi (+2.3%), Missouri (+0.3%), Montana (+5.4%), New Hampshire (+6.4%), New Mexico (+1.9%), North Carolina (+2.4%), North Dakota (0.4%), Oklahoma (+7.8%), South Carolina (+2.1%), South Dakota (+1.4%), Texas (+2.1%), Utah (+9.5%), Vermont (+1.9%) and Wyoming (+0.1%).