Bev-alc’s new pattern of year-over-year (YoY) off-premise declines continued in the latest week (data ending September 28), according to market research firm Circana and EVP of BevAl Scott Scanlon.
Total bev-alc dollar sales (-3%) and volume (-4%) both remained in the red. The latest losses are inline with four-week trends post-Labor Day, with dollar sales declining 3% and volume down 4.3% in the four-week period (L4W) ending September 28.
“Spending some time with the data reveals [a] consistent narrative, which remains patches of familiar green shoots within [a] sea of red,” Scanlon wrote.
Part of that red sea includes continued beer declines (dollar sales -3.2%, volume -4.6%) that remained consistent with the prior week’s trends (dollar sales -3.3%, volume -4.6%). In the L4W, beer dollar sales have outpaced total industry trends, with dollar sales down 3.5%, to more than $3.57 billion, and volume down 4.9%, to nearly 114 million case equivalents.
Adding to the tumultuous waves is wine, which “took another step back this week,” as dollar sales declined 6.6% YoY and volume was down 7.4%. The latest losses marked an acceleration in four-week (dollar sales -5.8%, volume -6.8%) and 12-week negative trends (dollar sales -5%, volume -6.1%).
Meanwhile, spirits remains a consistent green shoot, with dollar sales up 1.7% YoY and volume increasing 10.5%, slightly above four-week trends (dollar sales +2%, volume +9.7%). The double-digit volume gain is mainly due to continued growth from top spirits-based ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs).
“Upcoming, still several weeks until [the] Halloween ‘holiday’ event to help BevAl, with expected rangebound sales until,” Scanlon wrote. “Hopefully, we can see a little improvement across the board, but especially within the wine category which has fallen a bit further behind spirits and to a lesser degree the beer category.”
Beer-, wine- and spirits-based RTDs recorded accelerated YoY dollar sales growth (+3.4%) and decelerated volume declines (-1.1%) in the latest week. Spirits-based premixed cocktails continue to lead growth, with large-sized ready-to-serve (dollar sales +47.4%, volume +60.4%) and single-serve offerings (dollar sales +33.6%, volume +32.1%) each recording double-digit gains in the L52W.
Among the usual suspects for spirits-based RTD growth, Scanlon called out notable gains from Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Cutwater Spirits, which dipped into the triple digits in the latest week. (dollar sales +103.8%, volume +119%).
“Cutwater momentum is something to keep an eye on as it challenges the top traditional spirits (Jack Daniel’s),” Scanlon wrote.
Brown-Forman’s Jack Daniel’s is the sixth-largest spirits brand family by weekly dollar sales, and has maintained consistent declines over the past few weeks (latest week dollar sales -4%, volume -4.3%). The brand recorded more than $7.09 million in dollar sales in the latest week, while Cutwater recorded more than $6.27 million.
Additionally, Sazerac’s BuzzBallz (dollar sales +72.6%, volume +74% in the latest week) outpaced Gallo’s High Noon Sun Sips (dollar sales +2.5%, volume +2.8%) in one-week dollar sales in the latest week, with more than $10 million in sales compared to High Noon’s $9.25 million. That lift would rank BuzzBallz as the No. 2 largest spirits brand family for the week, behind Tito’s Vodka, which recorded more than $12.65 million in sales (dollar sales +2.5%, volume +2.4%).