Bev-alc off-premise sales were up slightly week-over-week (WoW) in the latest report from market research firm Circana.
However, those gains were unable to stop an acceleration in year-over-year (YoY) declines, as even the “patches of green shoots” previously seen in the industry “have burnt up in the sea of red this week across all categories,” according to Circana EVP of BevAl, Scott Scanlon.
Total bev-alc dollar sales declined 4.6% while volume, measured in case sales, fell 5.9% in the week ending October 5 compared to the same period in 2024. The latest figures mark an acceleration in YoY losses compared to the previous week (dollar sales -3%, volume -4%, week-ending September 28).
Those declines would be even steeper if not for continued growth from spirits (dollar sales +1.2%, volume +9.1%), as losses across beer (dollar sales -5.1%, volume -6.4%) and wine (dollar sales -8%, volume -9.2%) both continued to outpace total category declines.
In the last 12 weeks, wine leads YoY losses (dollar sales -5.3%, volume -6.3%), followed by beer (dollar sales -2.9%, volume -4.5%) and the total bev-alc category (dollar sales -2.3%, volume -3.8%). Spirits dollar sales have increased 3.6% compared to the same period in 2024, while volume sales are up double-digits (+11%).
Beer-, wine- and spirits-based ready-to-drink cocktails (RTDs) recorded a 2.8% increase in dollar sales in the latest week, while volume fell 2%. The category’s 12-week trends denote a slight improvement (dollar sales +3.2%, volume -1.5%).
“Upcoming, after the rough comps this week would not be surprised to see a bit of a rebound with next week’s data, although there is really no catalyst on [the] horizon until [the] end of month Halloween release,” Scanlon wrote. “Historically, Halloween has offered an early view into [the] end of year direction, although this year has been different and not sure analog remains in place.”
Within beer, it seems even growth segments aren’t immune to negative trends. Only two segments recorded both YoY dollar sales and volume in the latest week: hard cider (dollar sales and volume both +1.8%) and non-alcoholic [NA] (dollar sales +19.4%, volume +22.4%). Both segments recorded slowed growth compared to 12-week trends: hard cider dollar sales and volume both +4.1%; NA dollar sales +23.6%, volume +24.4%.
Domestic super premium was about flat in the latest week, with dollar sales up 1% and volume down 0.1%. The segment was leading growth earlier this year behind NA, and still remains ahead of hard cider in percentage gains for the last 26 weeks (dollar sales +3%, volume +2.9%), but has fallen behind in the last 12 weeks (dollar sales +3.3%, volume +3%).
All other beer segments were in decline in the latest week, led by craft beer (dollar sales -6.4%, volume -7.4%) and imports (dollar sales -6.2%, volume -7.5%). Imports are now in the red for the last 52 weeks in both dollar sales (-0.7%) and volume (-2.5%) as the segment continues to tackle numerous macroeconomic headwinds such as tariffs and immigration enforcement.
Despite those headwinds, Constellation Brands’ Mexican import brand Pacifico continued to post notable growth in the latest week (dollar sales +11.2%, volume +8.6%), outpacing all other top 25 beer brand families. Meanwhile, sibling brand Modelo – the largest beer brand family by dollar sales – saw YoY losses double compared to the previous week, with dollar sales declining 7% and volume down 8.4%.
Other notable accelerations in declines were recorded by:
- Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Busch, dollar sales -1.1%, volume -3.6% (previous week dollar sales +0.8%, volume -1.1%);
- Heineken (excluding NA), dollar sales -17.6%, volume -18.3% (previous week dollar sales -12%, volume -12.8%);
- Boston Beer Company’s Truly Hard Seltzer, dollar sales -17.6%, volume -18.8% (previous weeks dollar sales -13.9%, volume -15.2%);
- Molson Coors’ Miller High Life, dollar sales -6.8%, volume -7.7% (previous week dollar sales -3.9%, volume -3.4%).
- And Yuengling, dollar sales -8.6%, volume -10.2% (previous week dollar sales -4.4%, volume -5.4%).
Molson Coors’ Topo Chico Hard Seltzer was flat in the latest week (dollars +0.8%, volume +0.2%), marking a shift back to typical patterns after double-digit gains in the previous week (dollar sales +11.4%, volume +21.7%).
Meanwhile, growth accelerated for a handful of top beer brand families, including:
- Geloso’s Clubtails, dollar sales +9.6%, volume +7.2% (previous week dollar sales +7.3%, volume +4.4%);
- Boston Beer’s Angry Orchard, dollar sales +13.1%, volume +14.6% (previous week dollar sales +11.7%, volume +12.8%);
- And Constellation’s Victoria, dollar sales +17.9%, volume +15.8% (previous week dollar sales +15.8%, volume +14%).