Circana Weekly Scans: Beer Category Still Down, but Growth Brands ‘Bounce’

Beverage-alcohol’s off-premise declines eased a bit in the one-week period ending October 19, buoyed by the beer category’s growth brands, according to the latest weekly report from market research firm Circana.

Bev-alc dollars declined 2.1% year-over-year (YoY), to $1.329 billion, while volume, measured in case sales, declined 3% in the latest week. That marks improvement compared to the prior week (data ending October 12), when dollars declined 3.8%, and volume declined 5.4%.

“Last week we saw wine bounce, but beer disappointed, continuing negative pull,” Circana EVP BevAl Scott Scanlon wrote. “This week, beer delivered the bounce we were hoping for with the help of many highlighted growth brand leaders.

“Hopefully, we can build on this week’s data, but we have seen too much oscillation within the categories to make strong predictions especially without strong holiday catalyst,” he continued.

Beer category dollar sales losses only slightly outpace the total industry, dropping 2.2%, to $852.5 million during the latest week. Beer volume declined 3.6%. Wine declined 4.7% in dollar sales, to $243.5 million, and 4.2% in volume.

Spirits remained the only mega category to record growth, with dollar sales up 1.1%, to $233.2 million, and volume up 9.3%.

The ready-to-drink (RTD) segment – which includes products from beer, wine and spirits – increased dollar sales 4.3%, to $18.9 million, but its volume declined 0.7%. Premixed cocktails (+39% YoY) and spirits-based seltzers (+2% YoY) drove the segment’s gains, Scanlon wrote.

Unlike last week, when nearly all the top 25 beer brands were in the red, several beer brand families returned to growth in the latest report. Domestic super premiums and hard cider both posted 5% YoY growth.

“This week’s top 25 had more than twice as many brands delivering positive growth comps, with Michelob continuing to carry the category’s growth torch,” Scanlon wrote.

No. 3 Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Michelob brand family recorded YoY growth in both dollars (+5.4%) and volume (+4.4%), followed by:

  • No. 7 Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw (dollars +2.4%, volume -0.7%);
  • No. 8 A-B’s Busch (dollars +2.1%, volume flat);
  • No. 12 Diageo’s Smirnoff (dollars +3.2%, volume, +0.3%);
  • No. 13 Constellation Brands’ Pacifico (dollars +19.7%, volume +16.3%);
  • No. 23 Mark Anthony’s Cayman Jack (dollars +8.2%, volume +4.7%);
  • And No. 24 Sierra Nevada (dollars +1.1%, volume -0.2%).

Several other brand families in the top 50 recorded double-digit growth:

  • No. 31 Boston Beer’s Angry Orchard, dollars +20.1%, volume +20.6%;
  • No. 32 Constellation’s Victoria, dollars +22.3%, volume +21.2%;
  • No. 36 Diageo’s Guinness, dollars +10.5%, volume +9.4%;
  • No. 42 Athletic, dollars +14%, volume +15.7%;
  • No. 46 Mahou’s Founders, dollars +11.8%, volume +21%;
  • No. 48 A-B’s Goose Island, dollars +11.5%, volume +3.3%.

“Upcoming, the negative red overhang remains, but one has to be encouraged by the recent bounces with wine week prior and now beer while spirits continues positive,” Scanlon wrote. “The strength within Michelob, White Claw, Busch and Pacifico should not be ignored and hopefully we can see further expansion as we approach Halloween.”