Circana: Early Fall Momentum Improves Craft’s Q3 Trends vs. Q2, Driven by C-Store Growth

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Craft beer ended Q3 with decelerated declines compared to the end of Q2, and some notable growth acceleration from some of the segment’s top brands, according to the latest report from market research firm Circana.

Total craft dollar sales in the last four weeks [L4W] (data ending October 5) declined 4.8%, while volume, measured in case sales, fell 6.1%, marking a slight acceleration in declines compared to the previous four-week period (dollar sales -4.1%, volume -6.1%, data ending September 7).

However, in the L12W, dollar sales declined 3.9%, while volume fell 5.6%, demonstrating improvement compared to year-to-date (YTD) trends (dollar sales -4.8%, volume -6.1%) and compared to trends near the end of Q2 (dollar sales -5.4%, volume -7%, data ending July 13).

The segment’s declines continue to outpace total beer losses, with the category posting dollar sales (-2.5%) and volume (-4.2%) declines in the L12W, which were slightly improved versus YTD trends (dollar sales -2.9%, volume -4.5%).

It’s a different story in c-stores, where craft dollar sales were in the black in the L12W (+1.9%) and volume was nearly flat (-0.3%), while total beer remained in the red (dollar sales -1.4%, volume -3.5%). Craft’s c-store performance has been steadily improving for several weeks, with YTD dollar sales trends now nearly flat (-0.3%, volume -2.4%).

Meanwhile, notable losses continue in grocery stores. In the L12W, craft dollar sales have declined 7% compared to the same week in 2024, while volume is down 8% – nearly 2x the declines recorded by total beer in the channel (dollar sales -4.3%, volume -5.3%). Those declines are slightly accelerated compared to craft’s YTD trends (dollar sales -6.8%, volume -7.9%).

Challenges in grocery aren’t exclusive to craft. Nearly every beer segment is in the red in the channel YTD, except for domestic super premium (dollar sales +2.3%, volume +2.1%) and non-alcoholic (NA) beer (dollar sales +20.9%, volume +20.5%). Growth from both segments has slowed in the L12W: domestic super premium dollar sales +1.2%, volume +0.8%; NA dollar sales +18.2%, volume +19%.

Among the top 30 craft brands in all Circana-tracked off-premise channels, late Q3 performances varied. Eleven of the top 30 recorded year-over-year (YoY) dollar sales gains in the L4W. Among those 11, six recorded an acceleration in YoY growth in the latest report compared to the previous four-week period (data ending September 7), including:

  • No. 2 Kirin-owned New Belgium Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, dollar sales +4%, volume +1.9% (previous L4W dollar sales +3.6%, volume +1.7%);
  • No. 4 Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, dollar sales +3.2%, volume +1.5% (previous L4W dollar sales +2%, volume +0.7%);
  • No. 16 Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug, dollar sales +27.4%, volume +22.2% (previous L4W dollar sales 22.1%, volume +19%)
  • No. 21 Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, dollar sales +17.5%, volume +16.4% (previous L4W +12%, volume +9.3%);
  • No. 25 Georgetown Bodhizafa, dollar sales +15.6%, volume +11.9% (previous L4W dollar sales +10.1%, volume +3.2%);
  • And No. 30 Boston Beer Company’s Samuel Adams variety pack, dollar sales +14%, volume +13% (not included in previous L4W top 30).

The Samuel Adams variety pack usurped Rhinegeist Truth IPA to join the top 30 list. The latter posted single-digit declines in the previous four-week period (dollar sales -2.8%, volume -2.9%).

No. 28 Kirin-owned Bell’s seasonal had the largest performance uptick in the L4W (dollar sales +9.3%, volume +10.1%), after recording declines in the previous four-week period (dollar sales -4.7%, volume -4.6%). The brand is down double-digits YTD (dollar sales -12.3%, volume -12.1%).

Other top 30 craft brands to record YoY dollar sales growth in the L4W included:

  • No. 3 Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, dollar sales +13.2%, volume +11.5% (previous L4W dollar sales +14.8%, volume +13%);
  • No. 9 A-B’s Elysian Space Dust, dollar sales +1.5%, volume -5.1% (previous L4W dollar sales +7.7%, volume +6.2%);
  • No. 17 Monster Brewing’s Cigar City Jai Alai, dollar sales +5.6%, volume +3.4% (previous L4W dollar sales +12.5%, volume +13.2%);
  • And No. 19 A-B’s Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA, dollar sales +8.7%, volume +7.3% (previous week dollar sales +14.7%, volume +12.1%).

No. 29 Sierra Nevada Big Little thing recorded flat dollar sales in the L4W, while volume was down 4% (previous L4W dollar sales +0.2%, volume -3.1%).

For all of Q3 (L12W), Goose Island Tropical Beer Hug led YoY dollar sales growth (+27.7%, volume +23.7%), with double-digit gains also recorded by Voodoo Ranger Juice Force (dollar sales +14.5%, volume +12.8%); Wicked Weed Pernicious IPA (dollar sales +11.6%, volume +9.8%); Heineken’s Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’ (dollar sales +13%, volume +7.3%); Georgetown Bodhizafa (dollar sales +10.9%, volume +4.7%) and Samuel Adams variety pack (dollar sales +16.1%, volume +15.3%).

Among the 18 top 30 craft brands to record YoY dollar sales declines in the L4W, 12 recorded downward trends compared to the previous four-week period, including No. 7 the Gambrinus Company’s Shiner Bock (dollar sales -6.3%, volume -7.3%), which was in the black in the previous four-week period (dollar sales +3.1%, volume +4.4%).

Others to move from growth to decline in the L4W include No. 11 Lagunitas IPA, dollar sales -1.3%, volume -1.9% (previous L4W dollar sales +2.4%, volume +0.1%); No. 14 Voodoo Ranger Tropic Force, dollar sales -1.6%, volume -3.2% (previous L4W dollar sales +1%, volume -0.6%); and No. 15 Bell’s Two Hearted, dollar sales -0.3%, volume +0.1% (previous L4W dollar sales +1.4%, volume +1%).

The top brands to record accelerated dollar sales losses include:

  • No. 1 Molson Coors’ Blue Moon, dollar sales -9.2%, volume -14.3% (previous L4W dollar sales -8.6%, volume -15%);
  • No. 6 Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, dollar sales -5.5%, volume -6.7% (previous L4W dollar sales -2.6%, volume -3.9%);
  • No. 12 Duvel USA-owned Firestone Walker 805, dollar sales -10.4%, volume -11.3% (previous L4W dollar sales -6.9%, volume -8.2%);
  • No. 18 Samuel Adams Boston Lager, dollar sales -9.4%, volume -10.6% (previous L4W dollar sales -8.8%, volume -10.5%)
  • No. 20 Blue Moon Light, dollar sales -23.1%, volume -23% (previous L4W dollar sales -19.9%, volume -20.8%);
  • No. 23 Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force, dollar sales -35.7%, volume -36% (previous L4W dollar sales -34.3%, volume -34.8%);
  • No. 24 Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze, dollar sales -15%, volume -17.3% (previous L4W dollar sales -14.7%, volume -15.5%);
  • No. 27 Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, dollar sales -29.1%, volume -29.2% (previous L4W dollar sales -12.5%, volume -14%).

YoY declines were also recorded by:

  • No. 5 A-B’s Kona Big Wave, dollar sales -1.7%, volume -1.2% (previous L4W dollar sales -5.5%, volume -7.4%);
  • No. 8 Leinenkugel’s Shandy, dollar sales -1.9%, volume -3.5% (previous L4W dollar sales -9.1%, volume -11%);
  • No. 10 Samuel Adams seasonal, dollar sales -8%, volume -9.2% (previous L4W dollar sales -8.5%, volume -10.2%);
  • No. 13 Mahou USA’s Founders All Day IPA, dollar sales -6%, volume -7.6% (previous L4W dollar sales -6.5%, volume -7.8%);
  • And No. 22 Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack, dollar sales -6.9%, volume -7.1% (previous L4W dollar sales -13.3%, volume -13.8%).

In Q3 (L12W), Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force led YoY losses (dollar sales -33%, volume -33.4%). Double-digit declines were also recorded by:

  • Samuel Adams Boston Lager dollar sales -10.4%, volume -11.6%;
  • Blue Moon Light, dollar sales -20%, volume -20.4%;
  • Voodoo Ranger Hoppy Pack, dollar sales -10.6%, volume -11.1%;
  • Voodoo Ranger Juicy Haze, dollar sales -15.3%, volume -16.4%;
  • Sierra Nevada Torpedo Extra IPA, dollar sales -12.4%, volume -14.3%;
  • New Belgium Fat Tire, dollar sales and volume each -26.8%.

A handful of brands make the top 30 list in c-stores or grocery, but not the overall top 30 list.

Within c-stores, those brands include No. 28 Fiddlehead IPA (L12W dollar sales +6.2%, volume +5.2%) and No. 29 Tilray-owned SweetWater 420 (L12W dollar sales +23%, volume +29.9%). The latter’s double-digit growth helped the offering move up one rank in YTD c-store dollar sales, above Bell’s seasonal.

Within grocery, previously unmentioned brands to crack the top 30 include No. 27 Sierra Nevada seasonal (L12W dollar sales -6.5%, volume -7%); No. 29 Samuel Adams seasonal overlay (L12W dollar sales -1.2%, volume -2.5%); and No. 30 A-B’s Golden Road Mango Cart (L12W dollar sales +8.5%, volume +13.3%).

Sapporo-owned Stone IPA ranked No. 30 in YTD grocery dollar sales in last month’s report, but was pushed down by Samuel Adams seasonal overlay.