2025 kicked off with cautious optimism for the beer category, but that has been quickly subdued after a disappointing February and Super Bowl performance, according to Bump Williams Consulting’s (BWC) monthly report, citing NIQ off-premise data (total U.S. xAOC + liquor + convenience) through mid-February.
Some of beer’s strongest segments, including imports and flavored malt beverages (FMBs), recorded noticeable slowdowns in growth, and even declines, in the last month, a potentially “ominous sign” for beer’s near future.
There was a noted shift in tone between the latest report and BWC’s January update, which predicted a big result for beer during Super Bowl LIX, due in part to beer companies’ increased investment in retail displays and Super Bowl marketing.
“Unfortunately, beer sales did NOT perform well around [the] Super Bowl, and as we enter March, beer sales remain sluggish and have had a poor start to the year,” Williams wrote. “And while the marketing campaigns were right on target for bringing consumers back to the category, the net result was that beer sales for the two-weeks ending February 15 were as disappointing as the attempt at a three-peat for the [Kansas City] Chiefs.”
Williams also noted that a theme of “hope vs. reality” has washed over many of BWC’s conversations with clients across the three tiers, particularly retailers, who “are a bit anxious about the impact changes to the shelf sets this month will have on the category size and trend.”
Total beer dollar sales declined -3.5% and volume, measured in case sales, -5.2% year-over-year (YoY) in the four-week period ending February 15 (L4W), which included Super Bowl Sunday on February 9. This year marked the second consecutive year beer sales declined around the Super Bowl, and in the two-week period ending February 15, beer dollar sales have declined -5.1% since the same period in 2023.
Only two beer segments recorded growth in the L4W:
- Super premium (dollar sales +1.5%, volume +1.4%), driven mainly by Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Michelob Ultra, according to Williams;
- And non-alcoholic (NA) beer (dollar sales +19.6%, volume +19.3%).
Williams acknowledged that the Super Bowl period “doesn’t make or break the full year of beer sales.” However, it is “an important period” as it has historically represented about 3.5% of beer’s annual sales, according to NIQ data dating back to 2022.
“By failing to grow sales over this key period, beer finds itself in a larger hole to dig out of going forward,” Williams wrote.
Additionally, February trends could be an early indicator that even beer’s strongest segments may be hitting a plateau. Both imports and FMBs – segments that have been growth outliers throughout beer’s recent declines – recorded decelerated growth and even YoY declines in recent scans, Williams reported.
In the 13-week period ending December 28, import dollar sales increased +4.3% and volume +2.4% YoY in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels. However, in L4W imports were in the red, with dollar sales declining -2.8% and volume -4.5%. Year-to-date (YTD), import dollar sales have increased +1.6%, while volume is about flat (-0.1%).
Similarly, FMBs recorded a +4.9% increase in dollar sales and +3.1% increase in volume in the 13 weeks ending December 28, but have decelerated YTD (dollar sales +2.9%, volume +1.1%), and fell in the red in the L4W (dollar sales -0.2%, volume -1.9%).
“These two segments had combined to drive +$4.4 billion in dollar and +71.5 million in case sales growth in the off-premise from 2022-24 and are being counted on to continue as key sales growth drivers for beer this year,” Williams wrote.
The drivers behind import and FMB declines are also similar, with both segments recording out-of-character declines from their leading subsegments: Mexican imports and hard tea/lemonade.
Mexican imports accounted for 85% of total import dollar sales in 2024, and “have been beer’s most consistent growth driver,” Williams wrote. The country also contributed about 82.5% of import volume last year, or about 34.5 million barrels, according to the Beer Institute and estimates from the Department of Commerce.
In the 13 weeks ending December 28, Mexican import dollar sales increased +4.3% and volume +2.4%. However, in the L4W, dollar sales declined -2.4% and volume -4% – equivalent to a decline of more than -801,000 case equivalents.
“This is the first time we’ve seen Mexican imports decline in both dollars and cases in a four-week period in NIQ data as far back as we can go,” Williams wrote.
Imports also recorded declines from the Netherlands and Canada – the second and fourth largest contributors to total beer imports in the U.S. – in the L4W. Combined with Mexico, the declines from the three countries resulted in a -1.1 million loss in import volume in the four-week period, according to Williams.
Total imports recorded a -2.8% decline in dollar sales and -4.5% decline in volume in the L4W, while dollar sales have increased +1.6% and volume is flat (-0.1%) YTD. Comparatively, in the 13-week period ending December 28, total import dollar sales increased +4.3% and volume +2.4%.
Within FMBs, hard tea and lemonade accounted for 43% of the segment’s 2024 dollar sales. In the L4W, hard lemonade recorded double-digit declines (dollar sales -10.9%, volume -14.7%), accelerating declines from 2024, when dollar sales declined -9.6% and volume -13.3% in the 13-week period ending December 28.
Hard tea recorded more than three times the case sales and 2.7x the dollar sales as hard lemonade in 2024, and ended the year with double-digit growth (dollar sales +10.9%, volume +9.3% in the L13W ending December 28). However, dollar sales growth decelerated to +1.3% in the L4W, and volume declined -0.2%, marking the first decline of “any sort” for hard tea in a four-week period since at least 2022.
Total FMB dollar sales declined -0.2% and volume -1.9% in the L4W.
“I’ll state the obvious, but the beer category can ill afford any more setbacks with key sales growth segments like (Mexican) imports and FMB,” Williams wrote.
Note, NIQ scan data does not include on-premise sales and is not a complete measure of all off-premise sales. Last month, National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA) chief economist Lester Jones warned industry members to not fall victim to “Stockholm data syndrome” or be “held captive” to scan data.
Williams did not reference Jones’ remarks, but did make a point to write: “I base my analysis on the scanner sales as reported by NIQ, retailer loyalty card data, distributor analyses of inventory build and sell-through, along with consumer purchase data. My results and insights are NOT based on rhetoric or some magical ‘black box’ methodology – it’s real-life data that supports my analytical assessment of the category, sub-segments and innovation.”
He added: “No black magic rhetoric or short-cuts – we’ve lost too many shoppers to RTD [ready-to-drink cocktails] or non-alcoholic beverages, we’ve priced ourselves too high in a horrible economy to encourage trading up to suitcases from 12-packs and I believe that we are still feeling the ill-effects of COVID[-19] when we were told to ‘stay inside, don’t socialize, keep to yourself’ that consumers just don’t remember how to go out and have fun anymore.
“I was born an optimist but have been combat-tested with several doses of realism; but it’s my belief, even with all the category headwinds (WHO, tariffs, cannabis, misinformation about beverage-alcohol consumption) we can return to healthy growth once again,” he continued. “We may have lost an entire generation (Z) of beer drinkers, the ones that are still enjoying their BBQs, ballgames, parties, pints, tailgating and laughs – they are the ones who put points on the board every single day and they are LOYAL!”