A second straight year of production declines appears likely, with the full-year craft volume number likely to be “weaker than the midyear estimate” of down -2%, the Brewers Association (BA) shared in the trade organization’s 2024 Year in Beer recap.
If those trends hold, 2024 will join 2023 (-1% volume decline) as the only two years in which independent breweries’ volume has declined in the modern era outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Craft has been going through a painful period of rationalization as demand growth has slowed and retailers and distributors look to simplify their offerings or add options for flavor and variety outside of the craft category,” Bart Watson, VP of strategy and membership, said in a press release. “That said, breweries have reacted to these changes by focusing on distribution, continuing to innovate in their taprooms and brewpubs, creating groups and partnerships, and offering a wider range of beverages in their portfolios.”
Watson added that the “new normal” for distributed craft brands “is no longer growth but fighting for shelf space, rethinking footprints and portfolios and looking at non-alcoholic and categories outside of beer as opportunities for growth.”
The “slowing category” also means “more winners and losers” for brewpubs and taprooms, although “many small brewers are still finding ways to end up in the winner column, with around half of breweries reporting growth in our mid-year survey,” Watson said.
The BA offered several insights into the trends that shaped the industry in 2024. Here’s a recap.
9,700+ Craft Breweries: The BA counted 9,736 small and independent craft breweries in operation at some point in 2024. That’s down from the “all-time high of 9,761” breweries in 2023.
Closings Outpace Openings: For the first time in recent history, the number of closings for craft breweries outpaced openings. In 2024, 399 breweries closed, while 335 new breweries opened.
“Despite the slight decline in the number of breweries in operation, closings remain a low percentage of total operating breweries,” the BA said.
By comparison, 495 breweries opened in 2023, compared to 418 closures.
The last time closings outpaced openings was in the early 2000s, when the trend held for several years.
460,000 Jobs Supported: Craft brewing supported around 460,000 jobs, both directly and indirectly, in the U.S., the BA reported.
‘Hottest Market Trends:’ The BA highlighted “2024’s hottest market trends,” including the growth of non-alcoholic beer (+30% year-over-year from January through October); the increased focus on flagships and other core products, rather than endless innovation; and the greater emphasis on hospitality, such as “diverse dining options, cocktails and mindful drinking options,” as well as “family friendly activities.”
40K+ GABF Attendees: Attendance for the revamped Great American Beer Festival (GABF) topped 40,000 this past October, according to the BA. This year’s festival featured more than 2,500 beers from in excess of 500 breweries, as well as ciders, ready-to-drink cocktails, hard teas, and kombuchas.
2025 Preview: “Another challenging year” is on tap for 2025, “with additional uncertainty, potential tariffs and rising costs, retailers and distributors looking to simplify offerings, and potential new dietary guidelines for beverage alcohol,” the BA cautioned.
The BA also anticipates “market pressures” leading to “consolidation and alliances to cut costs and utilize excess capacity.”
“Brewers are experiencing critical challenges at the crossroads of a high-cost environment paired with slowing growth,” Watson said. “To grow in 2025, brewers must do what they do best: adapt. They also will need to continue to do the hard work to find ways to tell their story and differentiate their brands against the competition.”
Watson, along with staff economist Matt Gacioch, will offer additional insights during the “10 Points and Predictions for 2025” at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 19.