Regardless of whether the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy this weekend, beer is poised to be the real winner of Super Bowl LIX, according to Bump Williams Consulting’s latest monthly report.
“I haven’t said this or been more optimistic about beer sales returning to growth in decades – and that’s in spite of the proposed tariffs and misleading neo-prohibitionist slander being jammed down our throats recently,” founder Bump Williams wrote.
“There is a whole new positive attitude I’ve been witnessing in the stores this week,” he continued. “People are PSYCHED to be happy again!”
Williams’ positivity is in part due to the scale of beer displays at retailers ahead of the big game. Manufacturers are investing in not only more displays, but also larger ones and more “cross-segment” setups, according to Williams.
“Competition for share of wallet amongst total beverage-alcohol remains stiff, but beer takes home the blue ribbon this year and again, I repeat, beer will be the winner when the dust settles after Super Bowl sales data comes in,” Williams wrote. “And just in time for the spring [re]sets to be unveiled in March, too.”
Here’s a look at top segments’ gameplans and stats ahead of the Super Bowl …
Imports
Imports are leading beer in display scale and cross-category merchandising, according to Williams. Top brands of note include Constellation Brands’ Corona Extra, Modelo Especial and Pacifico; Diageo’s Guinness; and Heineken.
“I saw several stacks of [Guatemalan import] Famosa and [Nicaraguan import] Tona in Southwestern markets and Labatt or Molson displays up along the northern border and Buffalo/Rochester area,” Williams added. “I also witnessed several Sapporo displays in and around New York City, San Francisco and SoCal.”
Imports continues to be one of the few beer segments to record consistent growth year-over-year (YoY), although it has slowed. In 2024, import dollar sales in NIQ-tracked off-premise channels increased +4% – the second largest growth in beer year-to-date (data ending December 28) after non-alcoholic (NA) beer – following a +9.4% increase in 2023.
Import beer was also the No. 1 contributor to total bev-alc growth in 2024, contributing an additional +$555 million dollars versus 2023, according to NIQ data cited by Williams.
Also of note, bev-alc from Mexico contributed at least 43% of total bev-alc growth in 2024, when combining dollar sales increases from Mexican beer and tequila.
It’s too soon to know how President Trump’s new tariffs will impact imports moving forward. Over the weekend, Trump enacted a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on imports from China. Canada has responded with its own 25% tariff on U.S. imports.
In NIQ’s first report of 2025 (data ending January 18) imports recorded an +8% increase in dollar sales and +6.1% increase in volume year-to-date (YTD). The segment has 24.8% share of total beer dollar sales and 20.4% share of volume.
Non-Alcoholic
Williams called out the significant presence of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (A-B) Michelob Ultra Zero – launched this month – as well as displays from NA craft brewery Athletic.
“I saw a lot of Clausthaler (German Import) non-alc displays scattered around stores,” Williams said, noting that the brand doesn’t have the “front row seats” of Michelob Ultra Zero and Athletic, but “their import NA status seems to be attracting incremental purchases as they had stacks in locations I’d never expect an imported NA beer product to be – produce aisle, cheese aisle, seafood area, high-end chocolate location and health & wellness aisle on the perimeter of the store.”
NA beer increased dollar sales +25% in 2024, after a +32.1% increase in 2023. The segment also increased its share of total beer dollar sales from 1.2% in 2023, to 1.5% in 2024.
Even larger percentage increases were recorded in wine and spirits. NA wine increased dollar sales +27.1% (+19.4% in 2023), while NA spirits dollar sales increased +86.4% (+90% in 2023) – one of only two spirits segments to record growth in 2024, along with tequila. Note, NIQ separates ready-to-drink beverages (RTDs) into their own category.
NA wine and spirits have much smaller shares of their respective categories’ total dollar sales versus beer: NA wine 0.4% share; NA spirits 0.1% share.
NA beer was the sixth largest contributor to total bev-alc dollar sales growth in 2024, adding +$139 million to the industry versus the year before. NA wine ranked No. 8 (+$19 million) while NA spirits was No. 9 (+$18 million). Combined, NA beer, wine and spirits contributed 8% of total bev-alc dollar sales growth last year.
Domestic Premium Brand Families and Super Premium Beer
There is a “great outpouring of support from retailers” for domestic premium beer brands at the moment, including “massive family displays” for A-B’s Budweiser, Bud Light and Busch Light, and Molson Coors’ Coors Light, Coors Banquet and Miller Lite, Williams wrote.
Additionally, combo displays for Yuengling Lager and Yuengling Flight and Pabst Blue Ribbon and Lone Star have been sprinkled around retailers, with “suitcases and 12-pack cans” dominating package sizes across the segment.
“Prices were attractive, but not ‘giving away the ranch’ prices either,” Williams stated.
Premium beer dollar sales declined -5.6% in 2024 and -2.3% in 2023, claiming 27.9% share of total beer dollar sales in 2024. Super premium dollar sales increased +1.4% in 2024 (11.9% share) after declining -1.1% in 2023, while below premium dollar sales increased +0.4% in 2024 (13.4% share) and increased +1.9% in 2023.
Super premium beer contributed $78 million to total bev-alc dollar sales growth in 2024, driven primarily by A-B’s Michelob brand family. Williams also called out dollar sales growth from Yuengling (“primarily Flight,” brand family dollar sales +$17.5 million) and Garage Beer (+$9.4 million).
Michelob Ultra “is in a league of its own and dominated the floorspace” at retailers Williams visited.
“This brand has untapped potential for a long runway of growth – just keep it in-stock and front of mind with consumers – DO NOT BREAK IT,” Williams wrote.
FMBs, Hard Seltzer and RTDs
Williams noted several displays for Mark Anthony Brands’ White Claw Hard Seltzer – “more White Claw displays than I had expected to see this time of year – as well as a “few” stacks for Boston Beer Company’s Truly Hard Seltzer and Twisted Tea.
Flavored malt beverages (FMBs,) were the fourth largest contributor to 2024 bev-alc dollar sales growth (+$306 million), with a hefty contribution from Twisted Tea (+$146 million). Crossover brands AriZona Hard (+$37 million) and Monster’s Nasty Beast (+$17.7 million) also tacked on growth, along with hard tea offerings from New Belgium (+$36 million), Happy Dad (+$8.6 million), A-B’s Hoop Tea (+$8.1 million) and NOCA (+$7.5 million).
Williams also observed “a ton” of RTD displays, including Gallo’s High Noon, Stateside’s Surfside, Boston Beer’s Sun Cruiser, A-B’s Cutwater and Nütrl, Carbliss, BeatBox, and Sazerac-owned BuzzBallz.
Spirits-based RTDs and ready-to-serve (RTS) beverages were the second largest contributor to total bev-alc dollar sales growth in 2024 (+$455 million). Wine-based RTDs ranked No. 5, adding +$208 million to the industry.
Within spirits alone, RTD hard tea – e.g. Sun Cruiser and Surfside – was the second largest contributor to category dollar sales growth in 2024, contributing $81 million of the $767 million added to spirits in 2024 versus 2023. RTD juice ranked No. 4 (+$59 million), followed by RTD margaritas (+$57 million), RTD soda and seltzers (+$37 million) and RTD martinis (+$25 million).
Craft Dominated by Voodoo Ranger
For craft, New Belgium’s “Voodoo Ranger is still crushing it,” Williams wrote. The craft juggernaut has “quite a few cases on the floor.” However, Williams noted that the brand family continues to “dominate the singe-serve cold box in c-stores,” along with “a few local stars” such as New Realm, Sierra Nevada, Fiddlehead, Two Roads, Georgetown, Allagash and A-B-owned Kona.
Other beverage categories vying for Super Bowl baskets, according to Williams:
- Bottled spirits, including “an inordinate amount of display support for Tito’s, [Suntory’s] Jim Beam, private label vodka, [Brown-Forman’s] Jack Daniels, handles of Bacardi and [Diageo’s] Captain Morgan and three-to-seven different tequila brands;”
- Probiotic soda, including Poppi and Olipop;
- And intoxicating hemp beverages.