U.S. beer shipments took a notable but expected dive in August, as the industry corrected overstocked volumes after a soft summer, according to the latest report from the Beer Institute (BI).
The BI was scheduled to release August figures next week, but published domestic tax paids and state shipment numbers early to “prevent overlap with Beer Institute members’ quiet periods ahead of their quarterly earnings reporting,” according to BI chief economist Andrew Heritage.
Import data was not included, and will instead be available in the next monthly report – scheduled for early November – which will also include September figures and a Q3 overview.
Heritage estimates total industry volume to be down 11.4% year-over-year (YoY) in August and 6% year-to-date (YTD). The latter figure closely matches YTD beer depletions (sales to retailers) estimates of -5.9%, which suggest volume shipments (sales to wholesalers) have been “corrected.” As a result, further declines should be less severe.
Heritage previously warned that shipments volume would fall in the coming months, as volume needed to “converge closer to the depletions trend.” In the previous report, total industry volume from May through June was down 2.3% YoY, while depletions were down 5.3% in the same period.
August domestic tax paids declined 9.4% YoY, to an estimated 11.8 million barrels, the BI reported, citing estimates from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB).
If those figures hold (estimates are subject to change as more data rolls in), August would mark the second-largest YoY decline, after February (-16.4%, to 10.13 million barrels), and a loss of more than 1.2 million barrels YoY.
Tax removals have now declined 5.7% YTD through the first eight months of the year, to nearly 96.5 million barrels. At this point last year, domestic tax paid volume passed the 100 million barrel mark, nearly 6 million barrels above August 2025 levels.
August beer shipments to wholesalers declined 11.5% YoY, to more than 15.4 million barrels. All 50 states recorded YoY volume declines in the months, and more than half recorded double-digit losses, including the two largest states by beer volume, Texas (-12.4%, to 1.7 million barrels) and California (-15.2%, to 1.57 million barrels).
Other states with double-digit declines included:
- Arizona, -11.5%, to 315,000 barrels (-4.2% YTD);
- Washington, D.C., -22.6%, to 24,000 barrels (-5.8% YTD);
- Florida, -10.6%, to 1 million barrels (-8.4% YTD);
- Georgia, -13.7%, to 421,000 barrels (-6.2% YTD);
- Idaho, -11.6%, to 92,000 barrels (-5% YTD);
- Illinois, -17%, to 575,000 barrels (-8.6% YTD);
- Iowa, -15%, to 167,000 barrels (-4.2% YTD);
- Kentucky, -10.5%, to 215,000 barrels (-5% YTD);
- Maine, -14.3%, to 90,000 barrels (-6.3% YTD);
- Maryland, -16.9%, to 192,000 barrels (-7.3% YTD);
- Massachusetts, -13.3%, to 261,000 barrels (-6.1% YTD);
- Montana, -11.7%, to 87,000 barrels (-4.5% YTD);
- Nevada, -25.2%, to 155,000 barrels (-6.6% YTD);
- New Hampshire, -12.2%, to 108,000 barrels (-6.6% YTD);
- New Jersey, -15.5%, to 330,000 barrels (-9% YTD);
- New Mexico, -12.9%, to 106,000 barrels (-3.8% YTD);
- New York, -11%, to 821,000 barrels (-8.4% YTD);
- North Carolina, -10.8%, to 528,000 barrels (-5% YTD);
- North Dakota, -16.6%, to 47,000 barrels (-6.8% YTD);
- Rhode Island, -20.5%, to 37,000 barrels (-8.2% YTD);
- Tennessee, -14.2%, to 308,000 barrels (-6.3% YTD);
- Virginia, -16%, to 341,000 barrels (-7.4% YTD);
- Washington, -17.8%, to 323,000 barrels (-7.7% YTD);
- Wisconsin, -11.5%, to 353,000 barrels (-4.3% YTD);
- And Wyoming, -12.8%, to 33,000 barrels (-5% YTD).
YTD state shipments are down 5.8%, to more than 122 million barrels, marking a loss of more than 7.5 million barrels compared to the first eight months of 2024.